Australian interest rates

Roy Morgan’s inflation expectations survey for June has been released which reports that Australians expected inflation of 4% over the next two years, up 0.3% and the highest Inflation Expectations since the pandemic began.

By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA Key Points The RBA will take a more flexible approach to bond buying (QE) from early September when bond purchases will be at the reduced rate of $A4bn a week until at least mid‑November (as compared with the current pace of $A5bn per week).

Will wonders never cease.

In the Q&A to yesterday’s speech to the Economic Society of Australia, RBA governor Phil Lowe hosed down speculation that interest rates would be lifted to cool the property market: “I sometimes read commentary that we’ll raise interest rates to choke-off housing prices.

Goldman with the note: 1.

JPM with the note: Treasury yields declined 2-6bp following a somewhat weak ISM services index release.

The media is full of the usual waffle today about tightening monetary policy, rises rates head.

Chris Joye at Coolabah with the note: After months of anticipation, the RBA finally delivered on its third quantitative easing (QE) program.

The RBA just now: At its meeting today, the Board decided to: retain the April 2024 bond as the bond for the yield target and retain the target of 10 basis points continue purchasing government bonds after the completion of the current bond purchase program in early September.

For the past few months, MB has been formulating a risk case for equities that has been steadily growing in our matrix of probabilities.

There are five reasons why the RBA should not tighten monetary policy at all tomorrow.

By Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA Key Points At the July Board meeting the RBA will announce a decision on yield curve control and the bond buying program.

APRA monthly banking statistics are out and show that investor mortgages are still some distance from triggering macroprudential tightening.

Moody’s with the note: As economic recoveries proceed at different speeds and stages around the globe, there is rising interest about when normalisation of monetary policy will begin.

An excellent note from UBS.

BofA with the note to break inflationists hearts.

Deutsche with the note that should make AUD bulls shiver: For global markets, the US April CPI was by far the most eye-catching inflation release, but there are enough indications from individual country data and now the latest PMI reports, that bottleneck price pressures are a global phenomenon.

Below find the latest installment from an uber-dovish Phi Lowe. The AUD rose a few pips though god only knows why. This is as dovish as he could possibly get: no inflation, no wage growth, recovery incomplete, no macroprudential (which will come first).

As noted last week, CBA is not a growth stock.

Nataxis with the latest on Bitcoin: Bitcoin: adjustment nearly over?

Via the RBA Minutes: Considerations for monetary policy In considering the policy decision, members observed that the global economic recovery from the pandemic had continued and the outlook was for strong growth in output in 2021 and the following year.

According to Bloomie, hedge funds are long the Australian dollar: Leveraged funds hold a net long position of 20,509 contracts in the currency.

Goodbye TFF, goodbye rock bottom mortgages.