The RBA is not ready for COVID apartheid

It’s a very strange time. The pandemic we know about. I am referring to a secondary effect. The rise of irrationality in people and policy.

I’ve lost count of the number of strange conversations I’ve had in recent times with people I formerly thought of as stable or rational. The trauma of the pandemic has destabilised many. From basic fear of the virus to the loss of our freedoms to the collapse of the succour of daily routine to myriad rabbit holes that have opened up on the internet.

Is it too much to conclude that the same is happening in our leadership caste?

Let’s take Gladys Berejiklian. Our Gladys has gone from “gold standard” pandemic manager to covered in excrement. The Berejiklian government’s successful management of COVID1 with contract tracing blinded it to the dangers of COVID2 and now it has failed completely to contain the virus.

It did not need to be this way. The Berejiklian government never locked down hard and early enough to contain Delta and now Sydney is weary of trying. The virus is out and nobody has the will left to eliminate it.

Was it Gladys’ pride that stood in the way? Unable to admit she had it wrong, has all of Sydney now become a reflection of Gladys Berejiklian’s narcissism? Or, put another way, is Sydney now being punished by an irrational and out-of-control personality?

At the end of the day, this is an academic question. What matters in the real world is that Sydney and NSW are increasingly unlikely to contain Delta. The Berejiklian government is clearly nudging away from lockdowns and towards vaccines as its preferred virus management tool.

It was always going to happen but it is transpiring in chaos on the run not as a coordinated plan and that has significant implications for the Australian economy over the next 6-9 months.

If we accept that 80% herd immunity is the benchmark needed to safely reopen, then it’s going to take the rest of this year to get there if things go well:

The Berejiklian government is talking about easing restrictions much earlier and perhaps it will. But not much. The real-life and political consequences of doing so too early are dire. Even so, NSW is certainly going to give up zero COVID before other states and turn itself into an irresistible beachhead for the virus in consequence.

This process is very unlikely to be smooth. NSW is going to be in and out of lockdown as a crazed Gladys Berejikian pulls levers frantically to match her political goals of minimal deaths and maximum freedom.

For the other states, then, which may also have leaders operating on pride and not responsibility, we are also going to see rolling lockdowns as NSW bleeds virus through every border pore. This will slow any ultimate reopening as well, as NSW becomes the other states’ guinea pig, though it will aid the vaccine takeup.

This COVID apartheid is going to last another 6-9 months. What does that do to the economy? Yesterday’s NAB business survey gave us our first real taste:

To cut a long story short, the reopening boom hit an unyielding brick wall in July. Some of the components are still OK. Employment is the big one. But the sharp turn in trend is discouraging.

Moreover, this will probably get worse yet as the next 6-9 months in and out of lockdowns wears down households and businesses.

And it will likely be accompanied by a rising external shock as China slows and the post-COVID commodity bubble pops to boot. That will land on nominal growth, wages and inflation with an almighty thud.

These are not the circumstances that the RBA has based its outlook upon. It has made clear that it sees a quick and clean lockdown followed by a quick and clean reopening. A repeat of earlier COVID experience. With two-quarters of negative growth “very unlikely”

As things stand, what is coming instead is a federation of economic apartheid with rings of steel around every state, ceaseless disruption via lockdown and halting reopening, eroding confidence, falling national income and nominal growth and an inflation outlook getting flushed away.

Employment will be the key. But it looks more than odds-on that we are entering two-quarters of negative growth and the RBA will have to warm up the printer again.

Unless its pride also gets in the way.

Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. Display NameMEMBER

    Sounds about right. I am of the mind that when everyone who wants a vaccine has been fully vaccinated, open up. Keeping in mind that the stats coming out of other countries who have moved before us are ok. The downside to this approach is that the anti vaxers, if the US is any measure to go by, are exactly the ones with co-morbidities (obesity) that make them targets to require acute care when they almost inevitably get Covid.The result may put an unreasonable load on health care workers.

  2. BoomToBustMEMBER

    “I’ve lost count of the number of strange conversations I’ve had in recent times with people I formerly thought of as stable or rational”

    So by someone having an opinion that differs from your own view of the world you are calling them unstable? I’ll take my advice from those in the medical fields who have 20+ years experience, including the creator of the mRNA shot who says not to have it. Or the creator of the PCR test who says its not suitable for medical diagnostics. There is so much information available to from many other experts out there who are being actively suppressed in the media. When did MB become part of the problem rather than the solution ?? (somewhere around the time you release your own fund). Best stick to finances, medical clearly isnt your area you understand with any depth of knowledge apart from parroting the lies.

      • Ill point the finger then, NSW should have locked down earlier and adequately, since when is Ikea, Big W, and the reject shop essential services? Reap what you sow. As the SA health official said “The Virus doesn’t have legs”, it spreads via human contact.
        Cant believe the Media hasn’t worked out that NO OTHER JURISDICTION will open up to NSW while Covid is in the community REGARDLESS of vaccination rates in NSW. Any opening will be internal only.
        Glad I don’t have Qantas shares, how can they possibly survive 12 months with not travel between NSW and any other state without direct government intervention.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “I’ve lost count of the number of strange conversations I’ve had in recent times with people I formerly thought of as stable or rational”

      I had a customer the other day who’s hot water had been failing for 3 to 4 days before calling me in.
      It was the tempering valve that needed replacing, an easy enough job to do, but I didn’t have one on the truck and it was 4:30 in the afternoon.
      The mother, a very pleasant woman, in charge of 4 kids under 12 and a husband all stuck at home in isolation has one of those agreeable kind of personalities we’re nothing you tell them is a problem and where they always say things like, “Its ok if it can’t be done till tomorrow” “That’s OK, we’ll manage”
      She was in the middle of saying these exact words, in reply to my saying she’s not getting the hot water back on untill tomorrow, when she just burst into tears in mid sentence!

      I quickly placated her by saying I would illegally connect her Hot water direct untill I returned the next day to put in the new tempering valve.
      “Just make sure the kids dont scald themselves in the shower” I say.
      She was very relieved.
      Ive done a number of kobs gor this family and reckon that if not for lock down I would not have seen this outburst.

      • I have seen it too. Usually unflappable folks just have a cry. We’ve been locked down for 8 weeks now … the tough part is no one can see the finish line. That’s what troubles me. When you get sent to jail at least they tell you how much time you need to do!

        • ” the tough part is no one can see the finish line.”
          Yes I think that is a big part of the problem. People bitch about the lockdowns here in WA too but, there is at least a high degree of confidence in the approach the state government uses. That in part explains the result in the last last election. Anything is better than the gut wrenching marathon Sydney and previously Melbourne have been subjected to. I worry now that the continued outbreaks in Qld and Vic since things got out of hand in NSW means they will probably be dragged down with it as well.

    • Could you kindly provide citations from the inventor of the mRNA approach and also for PCR?

      IIRC the inventor of the PCR was on RN breakfast the other day talking about how they created the test (one of the Australian institutes ) and didn’t mention their lack of suitability

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        i’ll dig up the reference, however the creator could not have been on TV the other day, he died about 2 years ago

        • He used to synthesise his own psychoactive drugs (amphetamines I think) and stayed one step ahead of the law by making new derivatives that were not yet illegal. Used himself as the guinea pig. Strange cat.

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            Awesome! I remember a doco years ago about an oldish couple who synthesized a tonne of interesting drugs for themselves. One drug gave them the illusion that time had stopped, fully, and it was so real they said that if time stops you must be dead so they called it quits on that drug forever. Apparently some of the drugs they created were extreme mind blowers. I wish I could have tried them all. Wish I could find the doco again.

          • GonzificusMEMBER

            Reusachtige, you are thinking of Alexander Shulgin the medicinal chemist and author of PiHKAL: A Chemical Love Story. He is dubbed the grandfather of psychedelics. The doco you saw was possibly Dirty Pictures.
            He is a legend & inspiration. If you are interested in what he does, there is another fascinating guy called William Leonard Pickard who wrote The Rose of Paracelsus. Quite a life – https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/acid-lsd-king-william-leonard-pickard-prison-pete-wilkinson-184390/

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            ^^ Thanks bloke, that’s him and his wife the author Ann Shulgin who helped write the books. Fkn awesome peeps! I’d love to know how to make what they made.

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        Best I can find for the moment: https://needtoknow.news/2020/12/kary-mullis-the-inventor-of-the-pcr-test-explains-why-its-results-are-meaningless/

        FYI I have a copy of a letter from the Dept of Health that states under FOI request that they cannot find any documentation to provide data on the isolation of the Delta strain – this means you cannot test for something that has not been isolated. They also admitted the PCR test cannot distinguish delta from any other strain. And if you turn the PCR test cycles up high enough anyone can be positive.

        So in a nutshell, the PCR test is not suitable as a diagnostic tool for diagnosing virus infections, it is unable to distinguish between live and dead virus’s or virus fragments, and as its an amplification tool if you set the cycles to say 45 you are 100% assured of getting many positive cases. Also the CDC has told everyone to stop using it by Dec 2021.

        The problem is this lie is so big most people are mentally unable to conceive this would occur.

        • B2B. PCR has worked tremendously at identifying people with active virus in their systems. Yes its usage is dictated by how many cycles you want to run with. Compare its usage on sewage to someones bloods. Theres nothing interesting or untoward about this, it did its job of allowing us to isolate cases within weeks of the outbreak in Wuhan. ITs worked so well we haven’t replaced it with a specific diagnosing tool.

          Not sure what your beef with mRNA vaccines are but likewise it will be someone peddling clicks/views through fear and bs..

        • Great comment BoomtoBust. Medical research has been slowly coopted by pharma companies and other vested interests for a long time now. Largely for the same reason as political corruption happens elsewhere, and that is there is bucket loads of money to be made. The pharma companies are making billions from corona and also have a long history of being some of the most corrupt organisations on the planet, although still well behind bankers. Subsequently, I think most of the ‘worry’ around covid is well curated PR hype to force governments to pay horrendous amounts of money to the pharma companies.

          • BoomToBustMEMBER

            Let me add something extra to the mix that most people will not be able to wrap their minds around. Viruses do not work as we have been told for the last 120 years. The foundation for these lies is profit and control. The 2 biggest influences in the space 140 years ago are the Rockefeller family under David Rockefeller (https://globalpossibilities.org/the-rise-of-the-rockefeller-pharma-industry/) and Luis Pasteur (https://www.tsubion.com/imagine-that-viruses-are-not-contagious-germ-theory-is-wrong-louis-pasteur-was-a-fraud-media-and-politicians-lie/)

            For additional reading, see here: https://virusesarenotcontagious.com/

            We are seeing a rapid change in peoples perception around the current lockdowns, there is much information that is being filtered from public view, its slowly creeping to the surface. What will the net result on society be if people understand that much of what they have based their understanding upon is lies and deception ?? Interesting times we live.

            For bonus points, what will they use to cover the impending crash of the financial system and breaking of the global supply chain ??

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            This is from the “About Me” section on the viruses website you posted:
            I began researching health around the age of 17, and am now 31 (2020). I did so because I wanted to find the truth about health and how to get myself healthy, as I was an unhealthy person at the time. As a child, I had an irrational fear of germs, washing my hands until they bled. As I got older, I realized that this was not natural and that society misled me, but I did not know the answers to how or why. I feared my body and those around me. Luckily, I did not vaccinate myself because I feared doctors. Although I was vaccinated 2 to 3 times as a child, I have not been vaccinated in 25 years, and I have not visited a doctor since I was 17 years old.

            I reversed my bad health by adopting a 70% raw diet (Primal Diet), with raw milk, raw meat and raw eggs that have increased my ability to think and my health greatly. I’ve lost at least 3 family members due to medical maltreatment, which also fueled my study. The natural progression of health and nutrition was supplemented with my study on Freemasonry, and the nefarious nature that it permeates through government. I learned that the medical profession is, in fact, part of this fraternal organization, and part and parcel to the manipulation of mind and body for nefarious purposes of control. I set out to try to determine what is the truth.
            How far off the deep end do you think this bloke is?

            I’m happy to pay for him to take a return flight to Equatorial Guinea. In exchange he has to go to the Marburg areas and march around without a mask for a month. Then he can prove that viruses don’t work as he claims.

        • I see we’ve gone from ‘I listen to experienced medical experts’ to ‘I only listen to quacks and cranks’.

          Clearly there’s no possibility of productive discussion here.

          • Yes and clearly no parents. If you’ve ever been around a toddler with gastro, then watched what happened to the rest of the family you would work out about viruses pretty quick. To the ‘5 minute’ countdown between members who were all there for the midnight vomit!

    • Yep. If you disagree you are a nutter and the conversation is over. I just keep my opinions to myself (except online where I am semi-anonymous). It is too risky to align yourself with the “wrong” side.

      TBH I am waiting for the day when my business becomes unviable due to vaccine restrictions.

      • No, I don’t think someone is a nutter for presenting an alternative perspective backed by evidence. But I will think someone is not strung right when they accuse others of ‘sheepie’ thinking but leave no room for openess and evidence outside of their own theory.

        The truly wise understand with humility that sometimes we only see part of the picture and we rely on expertise in our society to make informed decisions. Sometimes this takes time.

        I am highly dubious of anyone calling others ‘narrow minded’ while hypocritically leaving no room for extending their own views.

        A more common sense approach might be, ‘I know the established science says x, but I also read y, which has made me want to investigate further. I will now research and see what I come up with’.

    • I’ll take my advice from those in the medical fields who have 20+ years experience, including the creator of the mRNA shot who says not to have it. Or the creator of the PCR test who says its not suitable for medical diagnostics.

      But why not take your advice from the majority of people in the medical field who do not say these things ?

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        There are 2 sides to every story, you are only seeing one side. When you view all the information from both sides you gain a much better understanding. Here are a few FACTS to consider: The jab and the PCR test are only licensed under a state of emergency where no viable alternative exists. This is why the SOE is continually rolled over. The jab is experimental, if you take it your are participating in a medical trial / experiment with or without your knowledge.

        • Now there’s some irony.

          Any issue of non-trivial complexity usually has a lot more than two “sides”.

          That’s why you’re generally better off considering the opinions of a lot of people, rather than giving disproportionate weight to the handful you already agree with.

          You can’t say you’d rather take your advice from medical professionals with 20+ years of experience when you are, in fact, ignoring most of them.

          • I believe the issue is that we are being controlled by PUBLIC HEALTH PHYSICIANS who were the very bottom of medical school, too acopic to become real doctors so they decided to pursue a (previously very cushy and safe) government job

            They were not prepared or selected for the responsibility/power that they have currently been given

            In any case, the very best of the field have spoken out AGAINST lockdowns

            Jay Bhattarchya
            Martin Kulldorf
            Sunetra Gupta
            John Ionnidis

            Professors at the foremost universities in the world (oxford, stanford, Harvard, UCLA)

            Matching up against kerry chant and brett sutton and the lady with the hair from SA

            Actual working doctors have been silenced by AHPRA with threat of deregistration so you probably won’t be able to get a frank opinion

            With regard to vaccination, it makes very little sense for a healthy young person to get vaccinated , since the absolute risk reduction for them is minimal
            And with regards to herd immunity/community protection it seems futile also

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Kary Mullis had the great idea to use a thermostable polymerase to amplify DNA. Molecular genetics has passed him by since then.
          Nowadays, it’s like asking the Wright brothers for their views on the F35 JSF program. We commend his initial thought, but he’s not the authority on molecular testing anymore.

          • BoomToBustMEMBER

            Kerry Mulis’s PCR test is an amplifier of DNA, thats it, how many times your choose to amplify something determines many things, including false positives. The CDC has informed everyone the PCR test is not to be used after Dec 2021, if its so good why would they do this ??

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Neither of the blokes you are quoting are who they claimed to be. Do a bit of digging into primary sources.

    • Reus's large MEMBER

      It is the brainwashed norm now days to assume derangement because someone has a differing opinion, just like Trump derangement syndrome, he was “orange man bad” by default but every example of why turned out to be MSM fake news.

      Stockholm syndrome seems to be the closest thing to this in some weird way!

    • Kary Mullis was a Nobel prize winning maverick scientist who openly experimented with LSD, believed in astrology, denied AIDS came from HIV and also denied global warming was caused by human activity (all in his autobiography). Despite the rich colours in his personal tapestry, he came up with the idea of the PCR technique to find the smallest amounts of pathogens which really has revolutionised the medical world. In the video link supplied above (just before his death in Aug 2019) he clearly states that “he does not think the PCR is misused” [in relation to viral testing] just that the result gives no meaning as to whether a person is infected/infectious or previously infected. To suggest that he says that PCR should not be used for testing for viruses based on the video link supplied is certainly not correct and may border on telling “Porkies” to further an agenda. I encourage the doubtful to view the video linked.

    • ’ll take my advice from those in the medical fields who have 20+ years experience”. As long as you take the overwhelming consensus view and not conspiracy theories or from those who profit from a minority view.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Mate both the MRNA and PCR misinformation have been fact checked as false and misleading. Don’t believe everything you read on Facebook (or fcken anything on bitchute..).

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        You mean the same way it was “fact checked” that the Wuhan virus definitely came from an animal sold in the meat market?

      • russbw the idioticMEMBER

        PCR: my understanding is that the test uses primers that are specific to what you are looking for (like a lock and key) before you amplify ie false positives are low for this reason. If anyone can debunk this I would be pleased to hear how the mechanism behind it is unreliable.
        MRNAvac: MRNA in the vacc is not reproducible/active (safe) but simply provides a TRANSIENT spike antigen for the immune system to respond to. ie safe . If someone can provide accurate information that debunks this and the MRNA is truly able to do something else then I’m all ears. Until then parroting unfounded claims from the web is unproductive. We’ve got a problem, now we gotta deal with it via vaccines. The only conspiracy I see is that we still don’t know how we got here. I’ve read a lot of the conspiracy stuff and haven’t found any of it reliable ie crap and easy to fact check and a waste of time. What’s the latest – graphene

    • The self-styled ‘inventor’ of mRNA vaccines , Dr Robert Malone, has subsequently admitted he was a cog in the wheel of a collaborative team to first investigate the technology 30 years ago. Perhaps the label was attached as propaganda by his interviewer, Steve Bannon.

      Steve Bannon’s War Room with Dr. Robert Malone
      https://www.bitchute.com/video/XA2kVVX4OxkI/

  3. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    Good article – does this mean a more negative outlook for ASX? I heard McGowan on talkback radio yesterday morning. He is sounded determined not to be let the virus into WA. A WA resident who is stuck in NSW after a holiday was complaining to him about being unable to come back – the answer was, “sorry your situation is unfortunate but I have to protect all Western Australians and our economy.” If anything he will make the border even harder.

  4. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    NSW throws in the towel as COVID becomes Berejiklian-ScoMo disease
    Associated Press, Sydney August 7, 2021

    NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian says Australia needs to ‘learn to Live with Covid’ as the Commonwealth CMO has openly flagged reconsidering strategy. After the rest of the nation has weathered 18 months of lockdowns, palsied quarantine management and a ten watt approach to vaccine procurement and rollout, analysts say the comments suggest the Liberal Party in power in Canberra and Sydney risks wearing Covid like a crown of thorns for a generation.

    Speaking at Friday Press Conference to confirm that more than 290 cases the NSW leader backed away from redoubtable affirmations of wiping out the virus no matter the cost when she stated that Zero was an ‘aspiration’ with comments which are now loosening the bowels of every sitting Liberal Member in Australia.

    “It’s obviously a challenge for us to get down to that number, but that has to be our aspiration. We have to try and get down as low as we can,” she said, before adding, “We know, given where the numbers are and the experience of Delta overseas, that we now have to live with Delta in one way or another – and that’s pretty obvious. But the higher the vaccination rate, the safer we all are and the more free we will be”.

    Liberal Party Advisor Lex Chrome of Chrome Dome Spin Doctors said that against the backdrop of a volatile public mood made more problematic by the widespread perception the virus was spreading because Berejiklian and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison had been slow to lock down Australia’s largest city for ideological reasons, the timing of the comments was ‘unfortunate’.

    ‘Are you sure you’ve got that comment right, mate? The word “aspiration” is supposed to be used for housing. People wanting to buy a house are aspirational, and it doesn’t matter if they aren’t a chance in hell of ever owning one, because they can still be aspirational, and that helps everyone to feel good.’ replied Chrome when called for comments on the Premier’s statement.

    Upon being played the comments in full The long term Liberal strategist momentarily lost his composure. ‘Oh For f*cks sake. A challenge? A f*cking challenge? Is she playing under lights in the f*cking group stage or something? Who the f*ck gave her those words? The “more free we will be!?” Did she really f*cking say that? We’ve told her a thousand f*cking times that the vaccines won’t stop the spread of the virus because vaccinated people can still get it and still pass it on! F*****ark! Free to do f*cking what? Go and get another f*cking booster? F*ck!’

    South of the Murray in Victoria where an entire state is now into its 6th lockdown in 18 months, Wally Blake of Blake’s effigies in Geelong, was quietly upbeat.

    ‘Business has been really solid for months actually. Our top selling effigy is the Morrison effigy, and has been for some time, but the sudden rush for Berejiklian effigies has really been something. We are running two shifts at the moment and are looking at going 24/7 as of next week. Real jaw thrusting, jerking movement style hatred doesn’t come along often, and a self righteous, bible basher lying c*nt like ScoMo is the result of years of gaslighting people. But Gladys has got a lot of people to fever pitch in no time, and that’s good for a business such as ours.’

    Former Federal Liberal Member Rex Stauncheon pulled no punches about how the Berejikllian comments could be seen, especially when added to those of Commonwealth CMO who publicly declared ‘There is no sense that it is heading rapidly towards zero which is what remains our national approach at the moment. There is clearly a need for a circuit breaker,’

    ‘Circuit Breaker? He is talking about throwing in the towel. What circuit is he talking about? You are either busting a gut to get rid of the virus or you aren’t, and then she comes out with that sh*t. There aren’t any f*cking circuits here. Morrison has been in her ear and she’s about to walk away from it all. She will be out soon to announce “We’ve lost” only the ‘we’ won’t be in the f*cking Northern suburbs of Sydney it will be old people on farms and in homes from here to f*cking Narrabri!’

    Stauncheon’s counterpart in the adjoining seat of Riverina, Dexter Marlowe, called the comments ‘UnAustralian’.

    It isn’t the sort of attitude you would want beside you in the trenches that’s for sure. The first ANZACS didn’t “aspire” to get ashore and stay there – they made it happen. Australian’s don’t really go for people who put in the short steps or go missing when things get tough, so I’m not sure what message she or the Feds are trying to get across here. Everyone knows vaccinations aren’t likely to do much but reduce the number of sickies from people who catch the virus, but it isn’t going to step the spread of this or any other variant. So she is either going for elimination or she isn’t. If she isn’t then hers is the government in power and ScoMo is in power in Canberra. If the virus gets hold then they may as well rename it ScoMo-Berejiklian Syndrome, because that’s the message every voter in Australia will be getting – especially after the communists in Melbourne Brisbane and Perth stamped it out.

    ABC political analyst Maevis Schmoof said the sense that the NSW and Federal Governments were losing traction on the handling of the virus was increasing within nearly all sections of Australian society and created the risk of a doom loop for the Liberals at Federal and State levels.

    ’Clearly that have made major policy errors almost right from the get go. Australia still thinks of Morrison as the idiot in the baseball cap telling everyone he was off to the league match. He has fried stranded Australians, he has thrown aged Australians under his political bus, he has buttered up his Liberal mates in going so heavily for one vaccine, and they are all telling some amazing porkies about vaccines. That’s on top of alienating every voter in Victoria, and let’s not forget there wouldn’t be many women in the country who would pass up an opportunity to gob on him if they got the chance. And that’s all before asking if Mr Coal has a tenable global warming profile, or if Mr budget responsibility has any coins left for when the Chinese stop buying our iron ore.

    And all for what? To let the virus into the country because he and his Sydney can’t run quarantine and haven’t got the balls to lock people down? He could be in trouble here. And Gladys might get a tickle from the top – with an ice pick’

    On the streets of Australia’s largest cities the mood of the public – those who were out – offered little to buoy the Liberal leaders.

    They can’t run quarantine, they can’t run aged care, and they can’t give us a f*cking vaccine which works! My f*cking taxes pay for this!’ declared Esther Ringwort of Nowra.

    They have had 18 months to build quarantine facilities somewhere remote and they still haven’t got that done. They missed getting a range of vaccines, and then there is the “gold Standard” we had up until about 8 weeks ago. It is all just lies and I think people would like to take their frustrations out on somebody.’ added William Chen of Beacon Hill.

    ‘Sixty years ago a bloke called Bill Roycroft rode the Australian team to Gold with a broken collarbone. He didnt get off the horse and say “that’s a challenge” before throwing in the towel and having a cuppa. These guys – in Sydney and Canberra need to learn to put in!’ stated Merv Golightly of Penrith.

    ‘We we got rid of the virus down here last year, and we have done it again recently. Between guys moving people down here from Sydney and guys flying to Tassie to do a runner when they are pinged for having the virus I think it fair to say we have got this from NSW and we have got this because ScoMo and Gladys couldn’t bring themselves to organise a lockdown because they had the “Gold Standard” QR outfit. Well at the moment it looks like fertilizer standard and the stink is going to add to the electoral pong of every sitting Liberal in the country. Horace Bellweather of Mooroduc Victoria opined.

    Word was sought from Prime Minister Morrison’s office late on Friday evening, with no reply forthcoming, as senior sources within the Liberal Party suggested he was seeking succour with his faith, with reports suggesting God didn’t feel like acknowledging his existence at the moment.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      The bigger issue is not that the RBA is not ready for an irrational society but that Australias politicians senior bureaucrats abd corporate figures are not ready for an election which will put their rationality front and square in the public domain

      One of these polls should ask the question

      ‘Which leader (Morrison/Albanese) do you think leads a party (LNP/ALP) which you think will lead to a better life for you, your family, and people in circumstances like you and your family?

      I totally get that Morrison is a political carcass, and as far as the electorate is concerned he stinks. I just dont get why anyone thinks (I mean really thinks) that Albanese and the ALP would mean an improvement in things.

      Disclaimer I have never voted LNP in my life, and last voted ALP circa 20 years ago…..

      Then maybe someone could explore the following

      Which party do you believe has the better policies/positions on on

      Please rate the positions of the parties as you currently understand them on the following on a scale of 1-10

      Economic Reform & Diversity
      Budget Management
      Trade
      Immigration
      Foreign Students and the visa rights they have
      Health
      Covid Management
      Education
      House Prices/Affordability
      Foreign Affairs
      Relations with China
      Relations with New Zealand
      Relations with the United States
      Public Sector Accountability and Leadership
      Defence
      Gender Issues
      Public Transport
      Corruption
      Corporate Accountability
      Taxation

      and..…’Do you believe that an individual earning 60 thousand dollars per year should be paying more of that income (a higher percentage) as tax than a person earning (a) 120 thousand dollars per year (b) 180 thousand dollars per year or (c) 240 thousand dollars per year, and do you believe that taxes paid by people earning ‘average’ incomes (60-80 thousand dollars per year) should be funding/subsidising

      1. Novated Car Leases
      2. Real Estate Speculation
      3. Trading losses
      4. Business expenses write downs for business
      5. Private Family education expenses for families who have incorporated so as to claim these as tax deductions

      ….Do you believe the first family home should be excluded from consideration of assets when determining public Aged Pension access?
      ….
      Do you believe that wealthier retirees should be allowed to allocate large superannuation balances and pensions in such a way as to facilitate continued access to the public funded Age Pension? Y/N
      ….Do you believe that ‘intellectual merit’ ‘family inheritance and social networks’ or ‘sociopathic/psychopathic or narcissistic workplace behaviour’ is more likely to see an individual rise to executive levels in major Australian organisations?
      …. Do you trust Australia’s politicians, corporate leaders, executive public servants and academics?

      Do you believe that all taxpayer funded allowances accessed by politicians and senior public servants should be required to be accessed with a Commonwealth Government Card which registers the outlays in a publicly accessible database within a day?

      …’Do you believe that your generation of Australians is handing over to subsequent generations a better Australian in which to live?
      …’Do you believe that your generation of Australians is handing over to subsequent generations a better Australian in which to work?
      ….’Do you believe that your generation of Australians is handing over to subsequent generations a better Australian in which to raise a family?
      …..’Do you believe that your children or the children of people in similar circumstances to you are likely to have a better or worse life than you or people like you?

      …..Do you believe that aspirants to political seats should be required to state their positions on issues to the electorate and then subsequently be held accountable to that electorate for their voting on those issues?

      and then One a scale of 1-5 rate the Ministry/Shadow Ministry of both mainstream sides of politics in terms of how familiar these individuals would be with life circumstances like you and your family’s, and those of your friends and acquaintances

      ALP
      Liberal National

      These issues are going to be spectacularly important in the next Federal Election because we are highly likely to be in a situation where the major parties cannot

      1. Hold Rallies and Public Speeches in crowd environments
      2. Doorknock electorates
      3. Be confident that anything said on line will not be recorded, and that the online environment will not be seeded (using AI) with trolls or bots to ask questions to divert the discussion in a particular way.

      And all that means that these parties – largely comprised of and run by psychopaths – are going to have to explain in a completely new way to the people of Australia why they should vote for them and what those people should expect from them should they vote for them…….

      This coming election is going to be the start of a completely new relationship between Australia’s elected members of parliament and the Australian people.

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    The LNP spin doctoring (both federal and state) is clearly trying to shift blame for their debacle on to the Unvaccinated.
    This piece of sophistry alone makes them despicable.
    But it’s their refusal to go into a proper lockdown to placate their business donors and supporters that shytes me the most.
    Thing is though they are quite cowardly and reactionary when their Cushy jobs are on the line.
    Once daily numbers of infections exceed a certain point (1000?) and ICU wards are jam packed they’ll go into a proper hard lockdown then.
    As usual, too late.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It sh!ts me they fvk small businesses (like ours) and support the big ones (that also fvk over small ones).

      No skin in the game.

    • working class hamMEMBER

      The posturing and spin doesn’t hold up to constant scrutiny or even attention. The cracks are so evident now, that most Australian MP’s are only corporate shills with a veil of actual community concern.
      Australia has no leaders, just rats trying to secure their next slice of the wheel, with any collateral damage chalked up to someone or something else.

  6. DLS,

    “If we accept that 80% herd immunity is the benchmark needed to safely reopen, then it’s going to take the rest of this year to get there if things go well”

    Delta variant renders herd immunity from Covid ‘mythical’
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical

    Herd immunity only works if the vaccine prevents infection and transmission. These vaccines dont.

    The only reason we are doing the vaccine dance now is to stop people getting critically ill and to show people “we tried”.

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        “Herd immunity from the perspective of an acceptable numbers of fatalities”

        The WHO has changed the definition of herd immunity to mean vaccinated. It is no longer acceptable to have naturally occurring antibodies. I can 100% guarantee that they will never reach anywhere close to 80% in Australia based on talking with people on a daily basis.

        So let me ask these questions, if masks work, why the need for social distancing? If social distancing works why the need to wear a mask? If social distancing and masks work how is it still spreading? Why are we pursing an elimination strategy by stealth rather than a live with it strategy ? Why are deaths per capita now lower than before the pandemic ? Would you know we were in a pandemic if it went for the media ? How many people do you know that have had serious side effects from CV-19? (for us zero), how many do you know who have adverse side effects from the jab (for us, 3 so far, 1 ended up in hospital with a mini stroke). What is the contents of the jab? Have you had fully and proper informed consent completed before the jab ? (if you said yes, did they inform you that you are participating in a medical trial? If you answered no then full and proper informed consent has not been completed, the medical person who administered the jab will probably be legally liable), for businesses mandating no jab no job, they are legally liable for harm. For businesses refusing service without a jab they are discriminating against people and will be liable. The governments are pushing their liability onto businesses.

        Just a little food for thought.

        • If masks AND social distancing both work then:
          [Mask + Social Distancing] > [Masks] OR [Social Distancing]

          Kind of like how we run a risk register at work to limit risks BUT also buy insurance.

        • So let me ask these questions, if masks work, why the need for social distancing? If social distancing works why the need to wear a mask? If social distancing and masks work how is it still spreading?

          Have you considered that very little in the world aligns with absolutes ?

        • Your better point is why are we doing elimination strategy. This is something we just ‘lucked” into by our success with Covid1.
          The issue with Delta variant is that this elimination strategy is much, much harder (as NSW has found out now that it’s pride has been pierced).
          I agree the media could do more to lead the discussion on the options – elimination vs living with it and here is where they could do more about what is happening in other countries.
          In relation to serious covid then yes – I have friends in the UK and one nearly died with it – I played rugby with him when he lived out here years ago. He is a carrying a bit of weight but by no means obese, in his 40s and otherwise fit (runs half marathons). He knows plenty of folks impacted by it and has let his Aussie mates know to take it VERY SERIOUSLY.

          • Jumping jack flash

            “Your better point is why are we doing elimination strategy. This is something we just ‘lucked” into by our success with Covid1.”

            THIS!

            I was trying to make this point the other day.
            I haven’t checked the latest numbers but last Friday we had a bit under 4000 active cases in all of Australia. Of those, 360 were in hospital for any reason, and 67 (from memory) were in ICU.

            My argument was that if lockdowns are to limit hospital burdens, then what state are our hospitals in, because that doesn’t seem like much of a burden to me.

            Then when I multiplied it all by 5 to reach 20,000 active cases (note that each case lasts about a week, I guess, and then 14 days quarantine is plonked on as well), the numbers of ICU patents were still very low. 300 ICU cases in all of Australia with 20K active cases.

            If Australian hospitals are already “buckling” under the swathes of COVID-addled patients at 360 hospitalisations, then it seemed to me that someone has been caught with their pants down after decades of taking money away from our health system to pursue the failed agenda of privatisation, while simultaneously pumping as many people into Australia as they could.

            Also, nobody seems to be making this connection at all.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            @jjf There are approx 2000 icu beds in the country and approx 1300 ventilators. You can do the math from there.

          • @jjf –

            The cases aren’t evenly distributed – most are in NSW, ditto hospitalisations and ICU cases.
            Someone posted a link the other day to the effect that prior to the current outbreak, ICU was at 80% capacity. There are about 850 ICU beds in NSW, so that would translate to 170 ‘spare’ beds – the roughly 60 ICU COVID cases currently in NSW consume roughly a third of that ‘spare’ capacity, and 110 more ICU cases would mean no available ICU beds.

          • NSW hasnt tried anywhere near hard enough
            Refer vic lockdowns last year
            Travel permits
            Curfew
            Don’t leave Sydney
            Actually define critical workers etc


          • 67 ICU out of 4000 infections –> ~1.7%…that’s actually bad if that’s anywhere near the real bulk ratio.

            Probably slightly under as there’s a lag between positive test and ICU admittance, and daily new cases are still rising sharply.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            Jjf. I pointed out that 20,000 cases is not many. If you open up you’ll exceed that in weeks, then be at hundreds of thousands of active cases quick. Exponential growth and that.

            Agree with the build out of health system. Training folks quickly is the issue. And retaining good ones if you let it rip is the other. I’d be gone in a flash, but then I don’t really care about people, health care workers are a special breed (in a good way).

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            Its winter. ICU’s are always full at this time of the year. NZ has no covid and we are also busting at the seams with other viruses like RSV. Secondly, how many of those in ICU caught the virus while already in hospital? Most of the deaths have come from seriously ill people who caught the virus while already in hospital dying. https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/tragedy-as-three-more-die-after-catching-virus-at-liverpool-hospital-20210807-p58gpu.html

        • For the same reason having seat belts & airbags in your car is better than only having one system.

      • the definition of herd immunity invokes a state where the virus does not have enough hosts to survive – carriers either clear infection or die before they can pass it on to someone else

        This is patently, absurdly impossible with a vaccination that does not prevent you from catching or spreading the virus, but also makes the carriers asymptomatic

    • Keeping people out of ICUs or getting long covid as well as overloading hospitals and putting health case workers seems an entirely reasonable approach to me.

  7. You have expressed this well. We likely always needed to move from “zero covid” but the NSW mismanagement of Covid2 has forced this decision being taken without a real discussion or laying of any groundwork – hence why folks are ‘on tilt’.

    It will be very interesting to see what happens to the Federation as NSW takes a different strategy to the rest of the country. This virus has certainly laid bare the fault lines of Federation … potentially a great time to start thinking about a consitutional forum. It seems politically popular to give more power to the States – but that is for another time.

  8. Jeez the politics of this are fascinating. Brickbats in NNSW for both flavours of LNP perhaps

    I think joe public is seeing through the ruse – knives are out for morrison amd berejiklian now

  9. You can back out what herd immunity is from the reproduction rate. A mate of mine has done it and for delta it’s definitely NOT 80%, it’s more like 92-94% requiring antibodies. Sydney is light years from this. You guys down in Aussie don’t seem to really understand that that means if delta gets a foothold… it will go through your population like shit through a goose and the number of deaths will be staggering. I was talking to a client yesterday. His maid is Indonesian, he said her neighbour’s family of 6, 4 have died in of it in the past month. I’ve had Indian clients in London crying on conference calls talking about their families back home, and a mate in South Africa lost 10 friends in May. This shit is real and until your vaccination rate is WAY higher, you’re totally vulnerable.

    Be careful, get vaccinated and keep your distance.

      • Yeah they are anecdotes, but they are real. I’ve also had it on good authority that the true death numbers in India are in the millions. I can understand vaccine hesitancy when it wa s first launched, but the behaviour of the anti-vaccine crowd is utterly illogical.

        If Sydney tries to live with COVID you’re going to hear of an awful lot of funerals. Personally, it’s you’re choice. I live in Singapore and here vaccinations among adults are around 90%, cases and deaths are minimal and they’re opening things up.

        • You say its my choice and on that we agree. Who/what is the good authority about the India deaths?

          • The person I’m relying on whose done the maths works for a big Asian government investment fund and I can’t release his name but what he’s done is this (it’s a little beyond me…):

            Combination of the latest seroprevalence survey and the estimated IFR given India’s demographics (and prior studies done elsewhere on IFRs, where seroprevalence surveys and more accurate measures of COVID-induced mortalities by age cohort are known). That gives you a lower bound, assuming that India’s mortaility for each age cohort is higher than for European countries (a reasonable assumption, given the state of healthcare in each)

            . When you do this, you come up with a range of feasible estimates but they’re all in the millions.

    • 429,000 people in India have died from/with covid since it started most of them old or diabetic, India has phenomenally high levels of diabetes. That is 30.8 people per 100,000. To put that in context the death rate from diarhoea in India is 85.5 per 100,000 and most of those dying are young children. Also around 50,000 people die in India every year from snake bite. The hype over India’s covid death is ridiculous propaganda by the media.

      • The official numbers in India are a fantasy. You can hack out the numbers from the mortality rates and the numbers possessing antibodies or, in hindsight, from excess mortality figures. Your nombers are as real as the Easter Bunny and Father Christmas. Sorry…

        • LOL… maybe not from, but almost certainly with! I can’t recall any of the 20-30 trips I’ve made there where I’ve not come back with Delhi Belly… no matter how careful I am.

        • Those that are dying from diahorrea are predominantly young and healthy, with young children making up the bulk of the victims. While the vast majority of people that die with covid are old or sick. If people are dying from covid why is there not a more even distribution of death across the ages like there was with other flu strains such as H1N1.

      • Thanks. I totally get why people on this thread are fed-up, I am too. I’ve been vaccinated since May and locked down in Singapore because old people refused to come forward for vaccination and the government pandered to them. But delta is a different beast, and it is what it is. To open up now with vaccinations so low and herd immunity (as KiwiKaren rightly pointed out, a myth when it’s so virulent) is to invite disaster. Many of those dying in Asia aren’t old, frail and infirm with co-morbidities (that helps certainly)… we just have to accept that things are going to take time to sort out. But they will…

  10. BTW, latest UK covid data.
    23,000 daily cases (up 7% last 7 days)
    146 daily deaths (up 15% last 7 days)
    725k daily tests (down 4% last 7 days)

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    This is what we need to start looking at regularly. This is what living with delta Covid2 looks like. I think the populace is not ready for this yet …

    • 146 deaths would translate to about 50 deaths in Australia to account for the population difference. I think that’s higher than any single day death count Australia has had; it would intuitively run contrary to most people’s expectations if we saw higher death counts post vaccination than before.

      • Yes – but this is what we need to get folks used to, unless we would prefer to be locked down forever. Delta is “out” in NSW and I really doubt whether it is possible to be put back in the bottle.
        One issue is the media have never focused on death rates from other illnesses / causes before with the exception of road fatalities so no one has a frame of reference. 50 seems high, but maybe we need to consider what the number of oldies who die annually from flu, cancer and other conditions are.

        • That was 50 in a day: 365 x 50 = 18,250.

          The Australia wide road toll in 2019 was 1194.

          In 2019 there were roughly 1000 deaths from influenza in Australia and 3855 all up from pneumonia and influenza.

          https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia-doctor-certified-deaths-summary-tables/2019#data-download

          Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18) 3,855

          Influenza due to certain identified influenza virus (J09) 3
          Influenza due to other identified influenza virus (J10) 761
          Influenza, virus not identified (J11) 249
          Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified (J12) 67
          Pneumonia due to Streptococcus pneumoniae (J13) 8
          Pneumonia due to Haemophilus influenzae (J14) 3
          Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified (J15) 43
          Pneumonia due to other infectious organisms, not elsewhere classified (J16) 0
          Pneumonia, organism unspecified (J18) 2,721

  11. Jumping jack flash

    For COVID 2 it stands to reason that we need stimulus 2.0 and this time do it big and do it right.
    Maybe Scomo could outsource it to one of his mates? It wouldn’t matter how much was rorted as long as it was done right.

    Forget about handing money just to businesses, they simply won’t pass it on, and then they’ll [some at least] will add insult to injury and hand it back. What’s the point of that? Where’s the stimulation?

    Hand it out to businesses of course, but some must be paid directly to the people to spend.

  12. This time against last year in the USA, there are more cases, more hospitalisations/ICUs, but half as many deaths.
    Probably those at risk of death already karked it.
    Hard to say if the vaccines do anything at all except give you a sore arm.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      A higher proportion of the older/vulnerable populations vaccinated. Thus younguns showing up proportionally more in testing thus less deaths. Vaccines work. They ain’t an invincibility cloak, but they work as good as anything your gonna get bar hiding in a hut in the mountains.

    • There is definitely something in your point, likely we will need additional time/data for it to become obvious. Australia never really had a severe outbreak so with vaccinations proceeding and instilling antibodies in the majority, death rates for AU will never reach the 100-130 per 100,000 as they did in Europe and US.

      Sweden had a severe outbreak which likely killed the vulnerable or induced natural antibodies, now it also has high vaccinations rates. Those 2 factors combined for natural and vaccine induced antibody response across the population. The outcome, 1 death per day since the 15th of July and no deaths since the 4th of August.

      Research also shows that naturally triggered immunity is also going to be longer lasting. They suffered upfront but will likely have less ongoing issues due to the natural exposure the population had.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        “Research also shows that naturally triggered immunity is also going to be longer lasting”

        Link?

        • https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01557-z

          Booster vaccines and ongoing exposure to CV-19 variants allows the B cells to mutate and adjust to the pathogen change. Base level protection is offered by the vaccine or natural infection but they seem to work in different way.

          Data is not 100% clear but the inference being natural immunity or vaccine followed by natural exposure over time updates the cell memory to new versions.

  13. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Cycled to a supplier on the missus girls bike, then realized forgot the mask, so took off the tee shirt and did a bankrobber impersonation. The woman serving had no mask so promptly removed my poor excuse. When I said I didn’t believe in them, rejoice was heard emanating from all the other staff who said you’re among like minded friends here (some wearing them on their neck). They all though there was more to this.

    • The safest thing societies can do once the majority are vaccinated is to fully open up and allow infections to occur in the vaccinated population. We need small not large mutations occurring in the virus and that means we have to expose the populace immune system to occasional doses. The societal immune system will normalize this thing like the common cold with hospitalizations and deaths falling away.

    • Mental Health Passport

      I like how they blame the Indian variant for thwarting herd immunity LOL.

      The vaccines never immunised against any variant.

      • Precisely.

        Same thing with the term “breakthrough infection” – there’s no such thing. The vaccines are doing exactly what the developers said they would.

        “These are non-sterilizing vaccines. Meaning that they do not perfectly prevent infection of the mucosal tissues in the nasopharyngeal region (nose & throat) and upper lung.

        The Covid vaccines work by keeping the virus out of the bloodstream and out of the lower lungs. This prevents Covid pneumonia and the permanent internal organ damage seen in more than 1/3 of natural infections.

        Once pneumonia and internal organ damage have occurred, people need hospitalization. And this is why the rate of hospitalization after vaccination is extraordinarily low compared to the unvaccinated.”

        https://dalewharrison.substack.com/p/there-are-no-breakthrough-infections

        • Mental Health Passport

          It sounds like social distancing is more effective than vaccines. The vaccines are encouraging people to take risks they otherwise wouldn’t, creating more deadlier variants. Vaccinated people are just as infectious as the unvaccinated but won’t know it so will spread the virus to more people.

        • kiwikarynMEMBER

          Except that its not extraordinarily low. UK Stats = in the over 50’s group, of 2074 people admitted to hospital, only 670 or 32% were unvaccinated. So that leaves 68% of hospital admissions being vaccinated people.

  14. TailorTrashMEMBER

    MB’s position always was that an external shock would knock over the strayan economy. Well it’s arrived .
    This is going to go through the place like an enema . All the damage already done has been papered over with print ,borrow ,extend ,and pretend . One fears we are now heading for the worst outcome ,high deaths and severe economic damage . The RBA’s big intrest rate lever is fully to the left . Need to release the safety catch to push to negative

    • The good thing from all those deaths is that we’ll be able to ramp up immigration to replace them all. Psycho Scummo already rubbing his hands in gleeful anticipation.

      Great article btw DLS, a balanced and rational view.

      Another sign of the times is that common garden nacissism now seems a prerequisite for high office, or in Scummo’s case, malignant narcissism.

    • The enema thing is OK but the preferred usage for MB comments is “like sh!t through a goose”.

  15. Mental Health Passport

    “If we accept that 80% herd immunity is the benchmark needed to safely reopen, then it’s going to take the rest of this year to get there if things go well:”

    Herd immunity is impossible.

    UK just had its deadliest day since March and it’s the middle of summer. This virus will be out of control in winter.

  16. has all of Sydney now become a reflection of Gladys Berejiklian’s narcissism

    I put it to you that the causality works in the other direction. We get the leaders we deserve.

  17. This thread is the perfect example of what DLS says, many smart rational people, experts in their own areas but still falling down rabbit holes sometimes in some areas. I’ve seen it with friends, they started out asking sensible questions and now they believe all sorts of unrelated things like Michele Obama is a man, magnetic nano carbon etc etc and because I don’t believe it they think I’m the crazy one!

    • kiwikarynMEMBER

      I remember when believing that the virus escaped from the lab meant you were a crazy conspiracy nutter, so dangerous that you had to be stricken from the Internet and cancelled in real life . Funny how that turned out.

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Yeah I dunno. I explain that the 5g tags implanted with the vaccine combine with Bill Gates Microsoft Windows when they come within range and start.fires, forcing people to buy new Windows packs, and that’s why Europe is burning. And no-one is taking this seriously. You won’t read it in the MSM and that’s proof they are suppressing the truth! I’ve heard it from a reliable source that used to sell computers at Harvey Norman.

      • Haha LOL! Have you heard this one? The entire inner lining of your circulatory system carrying blood through every organ of your body is coated with clot-inducing spike proteins. Boom-tish try the veal everyone.