Australian Economy

Via Bloomie: For an idea of how disparate predictions are for the world’s post-coronavirus rebound, look no further than forecasts for Australia’s dollar.

There are four major components to the construction boom that has kept Australia moving for the past eight years.

The New South Wales Government’s review of federal financial relations has proposed a range of tax reforms, which include increasing the GST or broadening its scope.

The lack of planning and foresight to cope with the immigration deluge into Australia’s big cities never ceases to amaze.

I don’t agree with Kouk on much but even the stopped clock is right twice per day: It is staggering and utterly dispiriting to see around 25 per cent of the workforce either unemployed, underemployment or having given up looking for work.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) yesterday released its household debt data for the March quarter, which revealed that the ratio of household debt-t0-disposable income rose to 186.9%, whereas mortgage-debt-to-disposable income retraced slightly to 142.0%: As you can see, both are a fraction below record highs.

Yeh, I have been locked down again.

AIG manufacturing PMI: Remember that PMIs are directional not positional so all this is saying is that conditions got better month on month not that they have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Loan demand could stabilise, but … New loan approvals are falling in trend terms, foreshadowing weaker growth in the stock of credit in the near term as the back-book of loans catches down to deteriorating flows.

From Domain: The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald can confirm that Victoria will announce 64 new cases of coronavirus on Tuesday.

Australia’s #labour market recovery appears to have stalled. Payroll #jobs increased by just 0.1% over the fortnight ending 13 June after averaging 0.9% growth over the previous three fortnights. #ausecon @cfbirch pic.twitter.com/Bbcbk9zv8T — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) June 30, 2020 V-shaped recovery.

He may not know what he’s up against but he’s persistent: Former Dow Chemical chief Andrew Liveris says the coronavirus crisis has created a generational opportunity to reset Australia’s industrial policy, get away from “developing reports” on the subject and recreate the country’s manufacturing base.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released another COVID-19 update, which shows another 1.0% improvement in the number of payroll jobs between mid-May and mid-June: Head of Labour Statistics at the ABS, Bjorn Jarvis, said: “This continued the gradual recovery in payroll jobs since mid-April (when total job losses were 8.8 per cent).

Very sensible.

Via Shano today: CBA household credit & debit card spend suggests the gentle upswing in spending has paused and is now tracking broadly sideways when we smooth out the week to week volatility.

Transaction data released by illion and AlphaBeta indicates that low-income earners have been ‘carrying the economy’ during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans, has doubled down on his call for a quick return to mass immigration at the earliest possible opportunity: Separate analysis by Westpac shows the economy will suffer an ongoing hit from a collapse in immigration, particularly from a fall in the number of foreign students in the country.

In the 1950s and 60s Australia had a policy of supporting manufacturing development in Australia, and its capacity to absorb large numbers migrants largely reflected its industry protection.