VIC records another 372 COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 9

Victoria has recorded another 372 COVID-19 infections and 14 deaths:

Despite the daily rise, infections continue to trend lower:

As does the growth rate:

NSW, by contrast, recorded 9 new infections, 6 of which were locally acquired:

However, the growth rate remains above one:

But NSW still appears to be controlling the outbreak much better than Victoria:

That said, epidemiologists believe that NSW’s true infection rate may be way larger than officially reported:

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said the presence of cases without a known source was “a good signal” actual case numbers were a lot higher.

“So, if they’ve got an average of 20 [cases per day] in the last week, that means that at any one point in time, there’s about 200 other cases out there that we don’t know about. Basically, 10 times the daily count,” Professor Blakely said…

Leading epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws agreed NSW had some level of undiagnosed transmission of COVID-19, with at least one undiagnosed case for every diagnosed person.

“I am not sure I would put it as high as 200, but I accept the argument that for every diagnosed person, there is probably at least one other that we don’t know about, or possibly two or three,” Professor McLaws said.

The same could obviously be said for Victoria, given the high number of infections from unknown sources:

Regardless, Victoria has 8224 active COVID-19 cases, 96.3% of the nation’s total. By comparison, NSW has 297 active COVID-19 cases, 3.5% of the nation’s total:

Victoria has now recorded 16,235 COVID-19 infections since the pandemic began, more than quadruple NSW’s 3,936:

Victoria has also recorded 245 COVID-19 infections per 100,000 residents, five times NSW’s 49 per 100,000:

At least infection rates are falling.

Leith van Onselen
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  1. More virus flare ups in NZ.

    Cases now outside of Auckland, including some not linked / traced to the initial outbreak.

    Elimination is tough. Vaccine is what is really needed, although how long and how effective is anyone’s guess.

    • This is staggering

      Will you ever actually learn your lesson ?

      There was never going to be elimination

      There will never be an entirely effective vaccine

      This is a coronavirus similar to all the other coronavirses just more deadly at the moment because it’s completely novel

      It will he with us forever just less virulent like all other viral RTIs

      • Maybe not, but certainly less is more. WA is doing well . I would prefer to be there rather than in Melbourne.

      • There was never going to be elimination
        There will never be an entirely effective vaccine

        So what’s the lesson to learn from that?
        If Russian vaccine is good for 2 years and it is inexpensive/quick in effect as it claims to be, it is a mean to control any outbreak and prevent not just pandemic but epidemic too. If NZ had access to this vaccine now, the recent cases would not even make it to the news. This is expected efficiency of a vaccine that solves the problem in entirety. We don’t need more than that to resume life.
        In the mean time, age proven lifestyle change is the best method, undoubtedly, to contain any epidemic. Also there is that underlying thing that is a travesty of “question authority” (T. Leary) combined with “she’ll be right mate” which unfortunately justifies stricter impositions. I do not agree with methods of imposing such lifestyle change, that does not change its efficacy or partially justifies the strictness.

      • Doherty seems pretty optimistic about a vaccine (and I mean a properly developed and manufactured one, i.e. not Russia and not China either) within a year and I’ll take his medical view over yours.
        Vaccine “not entirely effective” … weasel words, doesn’t have to be 100% effective for herd immunity to take effect and the health authorities are not targetting that either.
        Vaccine might need a yearly update like flu vaccine, ok we can do that.
        Only path to save lives AND save the economy is vaccine.
        Any other path means this thing runs with us for years like Spanish Flu, stop start lock downs to prevent hospital staff being overrun (the right metric is not the number of ventilators but enough hospital staff not infected or exhausted to treat all the patients) and very adverse economic consequences.

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Why won’t NSW Lock. Us. Down!? They are leaving it way too late. Soon we’ll be in double digit growth in new virus illnesses.

  3. NSW incentives do not motivate “symptomatic but unconcerned/ selfish” people to get tested. Vic ones do.

  4. Hanno Son of Bomilcar

    should have built a concentration camp in the outback and sent all the oldies there

    hire some full time carers and pay them really well to live out there w/ them for however long it takes

    let the rest of us build up herd immunity and have our country back

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Why not build a spaceship to Mars and send them there until it’s over.

      It would take at least a year to get the approval for the building, and another two to build it. Then there will be some group claiming the place is of religious significance after digging up a few rocks.

      • Hanno Son of Bomilcar

        nyeh nyeh nyeh

        fast track it, we could have done it in like 5 minutes if we wanted to and concentrated enuff resources

        if we can lock down 5 million people in five minutes we could have easily cut some corners to get shit done like that asap

      • Hanno Son of Bomilcar

        nyeh nyeh nyeh

        fast track it, we could have done it in like 5 minutes if we wanted to and concentrated enuff resources

        if we can lock down 5 million people in five minutes we could have easily cut some corners to get something done like that asap

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Yep. Dr and Coming are legends! I admire that they have stuck to their guns while being smashed with cancel culture. Good on them. Respect. The exact opposite for the cowards.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      It was like that for 100 days.

      If it did leak out of quarantine, then it shows it will leak as long as the border remains open, even when the army is in charge of quarantine.

      If it leaked out from frozen food, then being ‘virus free’ will become a pre-requisite for food export. That may become a huge boon for NZ.

  5. MountainGuinMEMBER

    Just mentioning food. is talking up risk of food price increases due to travel restrictions and fewer backpackers. President Xi also made comments to reduce food wastage in China flowing their floods and the pig flu. Also looks to be bad year for locusts although I haven’t found any good quantification of this.
    Feels like food price inflation for importing nations will be pretty high. unclear how this will play out here as some food exports may have dropped but stories from NZ hinting food exports can transport the virus may mean exports from places like Brazil drop and demand for aussie products increase.
    So will we face moderate food inflation driven by domestic factors or high inflation driven by external factors?

  6. The Melbourne epidemiologist is obviously sceptical of the suspiciously low NSW numbers and even his Sydney based counterpart accepts that the real figure is a bit higher. Tick tock Gladys and Scummo.

  7. Amazing that Drx’s predictions have turned out to be so accurate in contrast to all the Lock Us Up and make us wear masks Pleeeese Daddy prognosticators.

  8. Oh-oh…. Turns out our Gladys was disgracefully negligence over the Ruby Princess.

    How will MB cope? Can it still treat its readers to the odious(and totally irrelevant) daily comparisons between Saint Gladys and Hopelessly Incompetent Dan?

    Hold your breath all for tomorrow’s enthralling covid-competition update

    • Looks like someone has been triggered, I don’t recall too many heaping anyone with praise over RP debacle.

      • No, just daily MB covid updates holding NSW up as a paragon compared to Vic – a bit tiresome as apart from always being odious, comparisons in this instance are pretty irrelevant.

    • Ruby Princess was appalling … the only positive thing Dan did for Gladys was to produce an even bigger disaster than hers.
      In truth though the virus is a stern test for procedural competence in both our health bureaucracies and our hospitals. Can’t reason or bargain with it, can’t spin it, and it takes advantage of every mistake. It is a proper bastard, we have to respect it. We are conditioned to respond to symptoms and otherwise assume we are ok … so the asymptomatic incubation period nails us and our contacts every single time. So we have to get in front of it and go with prevention. Mandatory mask wearing in general community until we get a vaccine I think … and the number of health workers infected says current protective processes not enough.

      • Mandatory mask wearing not doing s%it for Victoria (as predicted), its been 4 weeks now and still over 300 cases/day.
        Outside of being sick and in confined areas there is little evidence to support mandatory wearing, and totally ignores the fact the mask itself becomes a transmission vector, especially if not changed regularly and disposed of properly.

  9. Agree with you Curious that it seems eradication may be impossible, but what degree of infection/prevention we manage or tolerate will be interesting. Ultimately I just don’t see continuous rolling lockdowns being effective or feasible as time goes on.

    I’d thought that maybe eradication in Straya and NZ etc might be possible, but I had to go several shops this week in Geelong (replacement laptop).and came to the conclusion that eradication won’t work. Masks were being worn of course, but so sloppily and not N95, but thin cotton ones, not much social distancing, and even in stage 4 lockdown, shops such as JB Hifi were tightly packed.

    Once lockdowns end we’ll slip with even these precautions and schools will have to reopen eventually, so the big cities here may well end up in a similar situation to the US, UK as we don’t have the compliant homogenous cultures of Asian and Nordic countries.

    Ultimately it will come down to each to his own which will probably mean a large number of older people won’t make it over time as it seems a vaccine that confers complete immunity is unlikely, and herd immunity requires 85% immunity, which can only be reached with an effective vaccine

    Which may actually be fair enough when considering the horrendous overpopulation and resource mess of the world and that many young ones either go without or outright starve.

    Note: I’m in my sixties in case you think I’m being heartless 🙂