Australian Economy

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has unanimously chosen to keep the official cash rate on hold at 3.60%.

Financial markets are now tipping that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver a 25 bp increase in the official cash rate in 2026, most likely in the second half of the year.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has revealed that the federal government’s energy bill subsidies will not be extended next year.

The AFR’s Luke Kinsella is the latest commentator to warn about Australian real wages, which have collapsed back to 2011 levels and face a painfully slow recovery amid sluggish productivity growth.

By Ross Elliott from The Pulse: Increasingly, I am curious why the presence of a train station on a map immediately conjures up in the minds of some urban planners images of potentially vast numbers of people transiting by rail—an opportunity too good not to capture.

Following the release of the Q3 ABS Household Spending data, which revealed a growth of just 0.2% in inflation-adjusted terms for the quarter, concerns began to mount that the third-quarter GDP figure could be weak.

Former Treasurer Peter Costello has told an e61 Institute event in Sydney that the federal government should consider reintroducing the baby bonus.

This week’s September quarter national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was mixed.

Last week, I reported on The Australian Youth Barometer 2025, which painted a bleak picture of the financial challenges facing younger Australians.

Wednesday’s Q3 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported fairly modest real per capita household consumption growth of only 0.1% for the quarter and 1.0% annually.

Australia’s unemployment rate is currently at a historically low 4.3%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) most recent Statement of Monetary Policy predicts that it will continue around this level until the end of 2027.

On Tuesday, I reported on the following chart from Alex Joiner at IFM Investors showing how real non-mining sales of goods and services in Australia have grown by 51% since 2002.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the Q3 2025 national accounts, which reported a 0.4% rise in headline GDP over the quarter and a 2.1% rise through the year.

In mid-2023, just as Australia’s net overseas migration was ramping up toward record levels, the mouthpiece of big business, The AFR Chanticleer, proclaimed that Australian businesses were “licking their lips” at the prospect of higher migration, “with few doubting that a bigger Australia is better”.

ANZ-Indeed job ads have commenced a new adjustment.

You can have AI or immigration, but not both unless you want a labour market disaster.

We have warned repeatedly that the state of Victoria is on the path to financial ruin.

The weather vane of financial market interest rate forecasts has swung hawkish following stronger-than-expected CPI inflation prints.

The latest ABS Labour Force survey painted a deeply mixed picture of the job market.

By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA: Australian headline inflation surprised to the upside, accelerating 3.8% through the year to October.

I cannot comment on the prospects of the latest deal, but we can run some scenario analysis to assess the outcomes.