Australia’s recession is set to deepen

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The March quarter national accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the economy is sliding back into a per capita recession, with real per capita GDP falling by 0.1% in the March quarter – the 10th decline in 15 quarters since Labor took office in mid-2022.

Per capita GDP growth

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index has been released, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future.

The six-month annualised growth rate fell further to –0.36% in June, “broadly consistent with quarterly GDP growth stalling flat”.

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Westpac leading index

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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