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Later this morning, we will receive the June labour force accounts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which will be a key input into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision-making matrix ahead of next month’s monetary policy meeting.
With trimmed mean inflation remaining stubbornly high and the global oil price ticking higher amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, the RBA will need to see a rise in the unemployment rate and/or a moderation of inflation in the quarterly CPI release to prevent it from hiking further.
The latest batch of unofficial labour force statistics has been soft, suggesting unemployment should rise.
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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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