Strong El Niño Forecast: 81% probability of “very strong” event (≥1.5°C) by Q4 2026, ranking among most severe in modern history (US CPC), triggering multi-dimensional supply shocks.
El Niño Supply Shock Impact: Directly elevates inflation via food/energy price spikes (food = ~1/3 consumer spending in EMs), exacerbating supply-chain stresses and risking wage-price spirals, with historical correlation to social unrest.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
