The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its June labour force report on Thursday.
May’s report reported an official unemployment rate of 4.4%, above the Reserve Bank’s latest forecast.
Chart from Alex Joiner (IFM Investors)
A weak result on Thursday could lead the RBA to keep rates on hold, despite stubbornly high core inflation.
The latest NAB business survey, released on Tuesday, showed that employment growth has slowed sharply, suggesting the ABS could also report soft job growth on Thursday.
Chart from Justin Fabo (Antipodean Macro)
Meanwhile, Roy Morgan Research’s latest estimate of Australian unemployment hit 11.7%, up 1.3% year-on-year and the highest result since January 2021:
Most unofficial measures and leading indicators point to falling employment growth and rising unemployment.
In turn, the softening labour market remains the number one barrier to the Reserve Bank hiking rates again.
