APRA released its Sep QTR banking property exposures yesterday and we can update progress of the MP2.0. First, the progress towards 30% of mortgage stock being interest-only is good, falling to 35%: It was largely driven by mortgage flow as interest-only issuance tanked to just 17% of the total: When stock catches down to flow then
MacroBusiness covers Australian banks from the perspective of their macro-economic role, as political economy actors, as investment propositions and in terms of financial stability and capital adequacy. Australian banks have played a crucial role in inflating the Australian property bubble, exist within an utterly privileged position as “too big to fail” institutions and operate within a deeply distorted financial architecture that has Australian tax payers well and truly on the hook in the event of trouble. MacroBusiness seeks to define this role for investors as well as change it in the name of the Australian national interest.
Via Banking Day: Kenneth Hayne, 72, a conservative and a former justice of the High Court of Australia has the gig as the sole commissioner of the planned royal commission into misconduct in financial services. The prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, announced the selection of Hayne on Friday, a day after the government set out the
The AFR is feeding the panic: Foreign investors say the Turnbull government’s snap Royal Commission into the Australian financial services sector is a new deterrent to investing in the country’s banks and will further challenge their profit growth at a time of elevated risks in the property market. UK-based Invesco Perpetual fund manager Tim Dickson
Via UBS: Prime Minister confirms a Royal Commission into the Financial Services sector Following an extended period of discussion, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull confirmed Cabinet has met this morning and has determined the only way we can give all Australians a greater degree of assurance is a Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial services
Via AFR comes Evil Anna: Homeowners face the prospect of higher mortgage rates as a result of the royal commission into the banks, the Australian Bankers’ Association has warned. Chief executive Anna Bligh warned that the local banks’ borrowing costs could rise as offshore lenders regarded them as riskier prospects because of the uncertainty surrounding the royal commission.
Gottiboff panic! Can’t say I disagree at this point, though: The banking inquiry combined with regulator-driven clamps on lending will initially boost banking profits and margins but they will create a longer term threat to dwelling prices. But that’s just the start. When you put an industry like banking under extreme pressure surprising things happen.
Do-nothing Malcolm has his orders now: 30 November 2017 The Hon. Scott Morrison, MP Treasurer Parliament House CANBERRA ACT 2600 Via Email Dear Treasurer We are writing to you as the leaders of Australia’s major banks. In light of the latest wave of speculation about a parliamentary commission of inquiry into the banking and finance
Via LF Economics: With a Banking, Insurance, Superannuation and Financial Services Commission of Inquiry likely to go ahead, banks and financial regulators will be under the spotlight as never before. Forensic analysis and research pertaining to the identification of systemic financial crimes is one of the specialties of LF Economics; hence, our insight can shed
By Leith van Onselen Yesterday, it was revealed that the banking Commission of Inquiry (basically the same as a Royal Commission) being pursued by the Nationals was fake, with a whole bunch of key areas of banking malfeasance likely to be omitted from investigation: Under the government backbencher’s proposal, the inquiry could elect to skirt
Via The Parasite: The big four bank has today revealed a raft of changes, including LVR caps and restrictions to rental income serviceability, that will impact mortgage brokers and their clients from next week. On Saturday (2 December), CBA will be introducing a new Home Loan Written Assessment document called the Credit Assessment Summary (CAS)
Via Banking Day: Under the government backbencher’s proposal, the inquiry could elect to skirt any matters currently before the courts and others under investigation by government regulators and law enforcement agencies. That might curtail the inquiry’s ambit considerably and might rule out evidence from known victims of poor financial advice whose grievances are still subject
More good Jess, bad Jess today: In reality, the high returns on equity enjoyed by Australian banks owe in large part to the higher leverage they hold. Australian banks are some of the most heavily exposed to household sector debt in the world. Aussies would rather sell their kids than miss a home loan repayment.
By Leith van Onselen Back in March, the Australian Security and Investments Commission (ASIC) revealed that it was investigating 11 lenders for dodgy practices. The following month (in April), ASIC announced further measures to promote responsible lending in the home loan sector, taking particular aim at interest-only mortgages. Then in October, ASIC released its review
By Leith van Onselen You’ve gotta love the myopic view of former Prime Minister, John Howard, who yesterday called a proposed Royal Commission into the banks “rank socialism”. From The Australian: Former prime minister John Howard has slammed a royal commission into the banks as “rank socialism”, warning the Coalition that embracing such a policy
Via AFR: Westpac Group will this weekend upgrade its key measures for assessing property borrowers’ capacity to service their debt, amid intense pressure from regulators to provide better insights into households’ financial commitments and vulnerability to financial stress. The bank, which includes Bank of Melbourne, BankSA and Bank of St George, is the first to
Via The Australian comes The Idiot: Maverick LNP MP George Christensen yesterday said he remained committed to crossing the floor on a banking inquiry, but will not do so before Barnaby Joyce’s December 2 by-election. Queensland Nationals senator Barry O’Sullivan has also indicated that as many four Coalition MPs, including Mr Christensen, could provide the
From Gottiboff today: If former Prime Minister Ben Chifley were alive today his heroes would be Treasurer Scott Morrison and APRA Chairman Wayne Byres. Given the banking scandals, quasi-nationalisation is a highly popular stance but I believe that at this particular time of our history it is extremely dangerous. Heaven forbid, but in theory, it
Suck it up, Gottiboff. Bravo, just now. Housing – The importance of solid foundations WAYNE BYRES Chairman 21 November 2017 Keynote address at the Australian Securitisation Forum 2017, Sydney Good morning, and thank you to the ASF for the invitation to be part of this year’s conference. My APRA colleagues have made regular appearances at
From Gottiboff today: It’s conventional to blame APRA and the regulators’ new rules but the credit squeeze motivation goes deeper and I think it is multiplied by a middle management confidence loss stemming from the looming retrenchments, the scandals and now building up to the real possibility of a Royal Commission. Not surprisingly, the bank
By Leith van Onselen After narrowly holding-off a banking Royal Commission in September 2016, it was reported last month that three Coalition MPs were considering crossing the floor of parliament and voting in favour of establishing a Royal Commission. Today, The AFR reports that Nationals Senator, Barry O’Sullivan, is pushing ahead with a private members
Poor old Mike Smith must be reaching for his copy of Mein Kampf: Nationals senators who claim to have been ambushed over the bill to legalise same-sex marriage are planning to use identical tactics to legislate for a banking royal commission as an act of vengeance. Queensland senator Barry O’Sullivan plans to unveil on Thursday
Via S&P: Mortgage arrears across Australian prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) fell to 1.08% in September from 1.10% in August, according to a recent report by S&P Global Ratings. Arrears typically have fallen from August to September during the past five years. The arrears average for the past decade is 1.25%, and the average for
By Leith van Onselen Just in via The Australian: The South Australian government has abandoned its controversial bank tax. Premier Jay Weatherill says the levy, designed to raise $360 million from the big banks over the next four years, has no prospect of being passed in state parliament. “For all intents and purposes, the bank
Via AFR: Former ANZ chief executive Mike Smith says the big four banks could have handled recent political attacks better, saying whenever governments want “mob interest” they always turn on the banks. “It’s being used as political capital … when you want to get mob interest, you turn on the banks. Hitler did it,” Mr
Recall: NSW Premier Mike Baird announced he will retire from politics to give a new premier a clear run at the 2019 state election. At a press conference in Sydney on Thursday morning Mr Baird said the state’s politics needed a refresh before the 2019 state election. “The refresh won’t include me.” He said he
By Leith van Onselen After narrowly holding-off a banking Royal Commission in September 2016, it was reported last month that three Coalition MPs were considering crossing the floor of parliament and voting in favour of establishing a Royal Commission. Yesterday, SBS News reported that the crossbench will use its balance of power in the federal
The AFR wants to repair the image of Evil Anna: Even Anna Bligh’s staunchest supporters were stunned when the former Queensland premier, who is still a member of the Labor Party, aligned herself with – or worse, put herself at the beck and call of – what many consider a slippery industry: the banks. “I
The banking system is broken, propped up by every day taxpayers for the benefit of a few, mainly in the FIRE sector. Mortgage loans are the cancer that’s eaten away whatever financial stability Australia had previously. Our own politicians might smell that something is rotten with MegaBank, but how many realise that their careers and