Increasingly, this is looking like an end-of-cycle shock as a bull-steepening trade overtakes the bond market. This is most pronounced in the US where the two-year yield is crashing a lot faster than longer durations:
![](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/1-45.png)
Thus the curve is steepening sharply:
![](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2-42.png)
In Australia it is similar though much more muted because we never inverted at the long end:
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![](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2-43.png)