Global Macro

No news is good news, apparently, and let’s face it, everything is sure oversold!

Cross posted from The Conversation: To avoid a 2016 crash, the major powers need to pull in the same direction Anton Muscatelli, Principal and Vice Chancellor, University of Glasgow It looks already as if 2016 will be a pivotal year for the world economy.

Here is what China is fighting, from the WSJ: As the yuan tumbled during the past few weeks, Chinese consumers have been scrambling to change the currency for U.S.

It’s daily.

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that the major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may reach $US16 a barrel.

The Mining GFC can’t catch a break.

As the falling Chinese yuan shakes up global markets, it is worth considering some of the slower burn implications for asset markets.

The perversity of the Chimerican unwind is on display again today as an excellent US jobs report is only more fuel tossed upon the Mining GFC bonfire.

From Nomura’s Bob Janjuah: Instead of writing in my normal narrative style, with each new note a direct follow-on from each previous one (my last note was published in October), I wanted to do something a little different.

2016 is looking more like the Year of the Bear than the Year of the Monkey.

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks: FT: China markets stabilise on state intervention “At this point everyone expects (renminbi) depreciation, but the central bank doesn’t want to let things get out of control.

Sabre rattling North Korea is making sure no one forgets about them as all eyes remain on the Middle East and unfortunately, Donald Trump.

An interesting speech from Federal Reserve Member John Williams, of the San Francisco branch, overnight.

The Mining GFC is ending the year with a bear market rally driven by some better news for oil and steel, pretty ordinary economic data out of the US reaffirming slow rate hikes and rumblings of more Chinese stimulus.

From the FT: A surge of deals in the pharmaceuticals, energy and consumer sectors has pushed merger and acquisition activity to an all-time high, surpassing 2007’s peak — but dealmakers have admitted that bond market turmoil and geopolitical instability are their biggest worries for 2016.

The Mining GFC had a mixed night.

The Mining GFC warmed up again on Friday night though has not broken to new lows.

The Mining GFC took the night off last night as shorts were covered and everything reversed.

The Mining GFC threw up an interesting mix last night with commodities diverging with other indicators.

It may have been the yuan devaluation, the collapsing oil price, or something else, but the Mining GFC took a sharp turn for the worse on Friday night.

From the BIS today comes more profiling of the mining GFC: Since 2008, dollar credit has grown more rapidly outside the United States than inside.