Global Macro

From Moodys: The world is now incapable of shouldering a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%.

by Chris Becker Just in time for the New Year crash, here comes some stellar news from the IMF (my emphasis added): Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017.

by Chris Becker Got to hand it to the GOP, they know how to spoil a party.

by Chris Becker Looks like we’re reliving the GFC all over again with interconnectedness so high that global currency and stock markets are going to crash because some single Chinese youths are not buying as many iPhones as they should.

Via Capital Economics: The conventional view of the long-term prospects for the global economy can be summarised as: EMs good, DMs bad.

By Leith van Onselen The UK has cracked down on their equivalent of Special Investor Visas, halting the scheme because of fears it is being used to launder money.

Via Capital Economics: The sharp fall in oil prices over the past month or so has led to several questions about the implications for the global economy.

By Leith van Onselen At the beginning of the year, the Turnbull Government revealed that Australia would head into a new secretive 16-member mega trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which was expected to be concluded by year’s end.

Some nice charts from Damien Bey as Credit Suisse give us context: Credit Suisse’s proprietary measure of risk appetite very briefly entered panic in mid-August 2018.

DXY is breaking out.

DXY took off last night.

Via Axios which has good sources on this stuff: President Trump has no intention of easing his tariffs on China, according to three sources with knowledge of his private conversations.

By Leith van Onselen Credit Suisse has released its 2017 Global Wealth Report, which reveals that Australian households are the wealthiest in the world when measured by median wealth: Household wealth in Australia grew at a fast pace between 2000 and 2012 in US dollar terms, except for a short interruption in 2008.

Volatility continues.

Via Bloomie, this is not what the market needed: Saudi Arabia threatened on Sunday to use its economic clout to retaliate against any punitive measures, hitting back after U.S.

Via the excellent Viktor Schvets at Macquarie: EMs in the crosshairs: Between war games, fake news and bonds From military exercises to trade wars, the fury is intensifying.

Via Pew: America’s global image plummeted following the election of President Donald Trump, amid widespread opposition to his administration’s policies and a widely shared lack of confidence in his leadership.

The US/China Cold War is here and how.