Hard Brexit would cut UK population growth by 8.8m

By Leith van Onselen

A group of academics have attempted to project the United Kingdom’s future population under three scenarios: 1) Hard Brexit; 2) Soft Brexit; and 3) No Brexit. Below are the results:

For the no Brexit scenario we extrapolated trends seen in UK total immigration and emigration flows between 1991 and 2014. According to our model, this scenario would see population growth for the next few decades, with a population in 2061 of 86.9m.

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