by Chris Becker
Dr Dooom is calling it.
From CNBC:
The rivalry between the U.S. and China could be so disruptive that it’s starting to decouple the global economy and could eventually cause a recession, according to Nouriel Roubini, the economist famously called the housing bubble.
“The consequences of this trade and tech war and cold war [are] the beginning of de-globalizaion … and the decoupling of the global economy. We’ll have to redo the global tech supply chain. And eventually by next year, if this escalates, it will be a global recession,” said the head of Roubini Macro Associates in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday.
“My base case is … the trade and tech war between the U.S. and China is going to get worse. Manufacturing is already in a recession globally. It’s affecting services. …The tech sector is in a slowdown,” Roubini said.
“It has already been in the data — the collapse of capex. And once the capex is down, then the industrial production is down and the employment is down, and you have the beginning of a global recession that starts in tech, then in manufacturing, then in industry and then goes to services,” he said.
Manufacturing PMI’s are falling everywhere, including the canary – South Korea:
US:
source: tradingeconomics.com
China:
source: tradingeconomics.com
Australia:
source: tradingeconomics.com
Germany:
source: tradingeconomics.com
South Korea:
source: tradingeconomics.com
UK:
source: tradingeconomics.com
Luckily, stock prices are reflecting the caution…