Australian Shares

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, US 10-year bond yields surged by another 9bps.

By Chris Becker  Another mixed night on equity markets at least with currency markets stabilising going into tomorrow nights ECB meeting, with bonds selling off on the possibility of a cooling trade war with China.

While the usual safe havens are weaker, Asian share markets are still quite mixed with Chinese markets and their satellites falling back, while the Japanese bourses seemed decoupled and continue higher.

By Chris Becker  A mixed night again on Wall Street with concern over a no-deal Brexit easing slightly as Boris finds his deadline curtailed by Parliamentary law – so now he’s going to suspend it!

By Chris Becker  A mixed Friday on Wall Street with concern over a slightly disappointing US employment print sending stocks to scratch finishes, while interest rates the USD finished lower, although gold dropped against USD as well.

A sea of green across Asian share markets to finish the week in a mood of optimism as more “talks” about the trade war between US and China scare away the short sellers.

Via superbear Albert Edwards at Societe General: … my biggest Ice Age mistake was to assume that the US would be like Japan and that subsequent to the 2008 GFC, US policymakers would find it much harder to manipulate the economic and credit cycles.

By Chris Becker  Its all about trade talks again overnight with US stocks leading the charge, European stocks also surging while the FTSE retraced as a higher Pound Sterling and more Brexit chaos takes a toll.

A boost to optimism across risk markets today, following potential upside to the continued US-China trade talks, but this seems like a repeat of the last time!

By Chris Becker  Stocks came back on both sides of the Atlantic overnight despite a fall in USD, positive sentiment building due to the Hong Kong situation changing for the better, while Boris had another failure in his Brexit plans.

Outside of Hong Kong, it was a staid session across Asian stock markets today as risk tread water in reaction to the poor lead from Wall Street and the deepening Brexit drama overnight.

By Chris Becker  US markets reopened overnight, and were flummoxed by a weak ISM manufacturing print that retracted for the first time in three years, sending risk sentiment in negative territory.

A steady as you go session across Asian risk markets today as traders await the return of the US from its long weekend.

UBS is not happy: Reporting season was soft, with more misses than beats… Reporting season is now over. FY19 results were generally weak, with the beat-to-miss ratio at 0.8 (well below average).

A mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with Chinese stocks on the rise while Japanese and local stocks fall due to the lack of confidence transmitted by Wall Street on Friday night, not helped by the Labor Day weekend.

Via the excellent Damien Boey Credit Suisse: Most people focus on the recession risk embedded in an inverted yield curve.

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw a continuation of some positive sentiment across risk markets, although the long weekend in the US meant positions on Wall Street were tapered back, not helped by the latest consumer sentiment figures which are receding.

The bounce is on as Asian equities play catchup with stock markets much higher to end the week, while the USD flexes its muscles against the majors, sending gold and safe havens like Yen down, as the Aussie dollar is about to make a new monthly low.

By Chris Becker  Its all swings and roundabouts with the Chinese overnight indicating they won’t retailiate against Trump’s latest tariffs (and they’ll overlook his lying about phone calls too!), which sent risk markets sharply higher, dragging the USD along as well.

Another relatively mild session across risk markets here in Asia today until late in the session with traders eyeing the latest musing from China on the trade war with the US.

By Chris Becker  Its all about Brexit – no trouble – overnight with risk markets tentatively moving forward, only Pound Sterling suffering any stress due to Boris’ suspension of Parliament.

A relatively staid session across risk markets here in Asia today following a small blip higher on Wall Street overnight.

It’s kind of playing out the way it did for Michael Burry in the Big Short but Russell Clark’s Horseman Global is right about the base case: Why is the fund so volatile?