Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Here we go again. Local stocks lead the reaction to the Fed’s cut to zero and new round of QE, with all other central banks now acting in kind with the BOJ today accelerating its bond buying program and the RBA finally admitting it needs to do the same. The ASX200 suffered its worst one day result in nearly 30 years, falling nearly 10% for the session, but other Asian stock markets had relatively modest falls, although futures are looking dire for the European and US sessions tonight. Seems the only thing people are buying in Yen and sovereign bonds – everything else is on sale!

The Shanghai Composite was down slightly before the lunch break but then put the hammer down into the close, eventually closing 3% lower to 2789 points while the Hang Seng Index fell over 4% lower to 22991 points, taking back half of the previous one day gains:

Japanese share markets were surprisingly the best performers, only losing 2% or so as Yen buying ramped up on the morning gap, absorbing the weekend news. The Nikkei 225 fell 2.5% to just over 17000 points with the USDJPY pair almost back to its pre-breakout level just above the 106 handle:

Can’t use many other superlatives for the ASX200 but a definited Keanu Reeves: whoah. After Friday’s rally snapped up a lot of fools and bottom pickers, today’s session has scared off anyone wanting to buy, almost closing below the 5000 point level, losing over 500 points. The Australian dollar had a wide range taking into consideration the RBA news amid the other central bank action, breaking below the 61 handle briefly  before steadying here at the 61.60 level and looking extremely oversold:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are falling sharply, off by at least 4% as panic sets in again with the four hourly S&P futures chart looking to retrace back below the very temporary 2600 point level:

The economic calendar really doesn’t matter at the moment with central bank action dominating the news wires, along with the near hysterical news surrounding the virus. I still contend we’ve got a few more weeks of this before any sign of stability.

 

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Comments

  1. All going bonkers.

    CB’s and Govt’s going insane trying to fight an invincible, omnipotent virus with economic magic spells.

    Run on the banks coming folks, dare I say it.

    Catastrophists were underplaying things for a long while.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      One thing I will say about people with memberships is they get to complain about service levels here.

      Or have I missed your point?

  2. All going bonkers.

    CB’s and Govt’s going insane trying to fight an invincible, omnipotent virus with economic magic spells.

    Run on the banks coming folks, dare I say it.

    Catastrophists were underplaying things for a long while.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Mrs. Watanabe bringing money back home in time of crisis, so the yen carry trade is reversed.

    • The Yen is a carry currency, which means that speculators and hedge funds borrow heavily in Yen (interest rates 0% and the printers have been running hard for yonks, while debt/GDP is 250%). In other words, the currency is cheap to borrow and biased to weakening vs other currencies most of the time.

      Having borrowed in Yen, they convert to the currency of choice – inevitably a currency with higher interest rates (not so much the Euro) and purchase an asset – could be US treasuries, could be stocks, HY yield bonds, whatever. When things are going well, the return on these other assets more than covers the cost of borrowing in Yen and yields a nice return — do this in size and you’re talking big money.

      However, the catch is that when things turn to sh*t as they have done recently these trades get unwound and the reverse happens: yieldy assets are sold quickly to prevent capital losses and the proceeds are swapped back into Yen i.e. big demand in the FX markets for Yen and the loan is repaid. This is why you see the Yen race higher in a risk-off scenario.

      HnH speculated a few days ago that the Euro has become a ‘carry’ currency – as the Euro has negative rates and plenty of macro reasons for eternal weakness. ‘Carry’ is the difference between the yield on the purchased asset and the yield on the Yen loan.

    • That’s heartwarming.
      Wonder how CJoye is doing and what the hybrid bond portfolio looks like.

        • remember Kevin R had to bail them back in 2008. Do you really think thy got any better..

          • I was just being facetious – the banks are in a world of trouble: they are heavily exposed to SMEs via loans secured on real estate and then they are outright exposed to real estate – commercial and residential. This could all come tumbling down because you cannot solve a solvency problem with liquidity. Even if banks refused to foreclose and sat with the bad loans — they would still be insolvent and foreign lenders would know this for certain, which means no more rolling over of foreign funding. The recapitalisation requirements for all 4 banks would be off the dial, especially if they refused to foreclose and take a hit because no one would ever know what the true damage is – like the Italian banks. They are royally rooted unless this virus thing goes away very soon.

            And we haven’t even spoken about the hit to Super if all 4 banks got smoked – that’s 30% of the entire ASX to zero.

    • There is not enough TP in all the country to deal with the fall out of people sharting themselves if WBC goes broke.

      Got a link to the Twitter feed? I have $20k in WBC with another $30k about to be paid in. Thinking of moving it..

      • Not sure on the legitimacy. After reading this I did go across the road and clear out the last $1,100 in my WBC account. Mustnt have been the only one to get wind. 4 others there, in a dead quiet shopping strip in the Sutherland shire.

        Even if it’s just rumours, this can easily spark a run on the banks, especially given how highly strung things are right now.

        Lots more rumours flying around twitter though as well. Virgin to go as well. Transferred my velocity points to Singapore Airlines today. Hopefully QFF stays afloat.

    • RAMS (Westpac subsidiary) savings rate now down to 1.65%.

      Westpac really is in a bad financial position regarding its cost of capital. A stand out from the other 3. If one of the 4 is to fold, it will definitely be Westpac.

        • Me too. People don’t understand that the deposit guarantee is to protect the bank – not the depositor. Any application of this guarantee (if you’re lucky) will apply as your money being frozen in your bank account and you won’t be allowed to withdraw a cent.

    • I just moved $25k from my Westpac account to my ING offset account. Left about $1,500 in WBC. I am not sure I buy the rumour, but I’d rather be safe than sorry.

      My last pay out from my employer for leave etc.. is going into WBC on the 25th. Hopefully the bank will still exist by then.

      • What makes you think ING are ok? Ive got multiple accounts to try and limit the risk including ING but cant say I feel warm and fuzzy about it. What else to do with your cash? Any ideas? 1 year government bonds?

  3. DingwallMEMBER

    The poo really likes it @ 61.70 atm. Fought it’s way there all day then dropped away to 61.40. Then Europe came online and said “get back up there”

  4. This is surreal. Asx down 9.7% again today this is getting real. Housing is next for sure and it won’t take long either then the banks will fall. In one way I have been egging on for a crash since I lean bearish towards the corrupt bs that has been the economy of late but watching this unfold in real time is still unbelievable. I pray we all make it through this year still healthy and without violence tbh cos what I am seeing from the masses is not reassuring. Most people are so highly strung financially that it won’t take much to send them over the edge in many ways. Stay safe and I wish for the best.

    • I am stoked at Nostradamus i mean bnich’s predictions to date. Maybe this solar flare theory is real

    • Egging on a crash and us getting through this are mutually exclusive for a lotttt of people

      • I know, right? We’re talking a Titantic sized turd hitting a Harbour Bridge sized fan…you can’t predict where this ends and the 3rd and 4th order consequences will take out many (biologically & economically) who think they’re sitting pretty right now.

    • Locus of ControlMEMBER

      In a year’s time I’ll be curious to see what this has done to the Australian psyche.

      I think about my grandparents whose formative years were the Depression and WWII. We were really lucky to have strong oral family lore with stories of the hardships of that era passed down. Concepts like ‘delayed gratification’, ‘make do’ and ‘go without’ were shared with us, the grandkids, in the 1990s. Case in point – the idea of mending ripped clothes or using a 100 year old chaff cutter because ‘it still works just fine’ (yeah, I was a country kid). And granddad never threw anything out (spare parts, tools, machinery), because you ‘never know when it might come in handy’ (derided as hoarding these days, a concept which has made a strong comeback in the past fortnight), a hangover from the Depression years/ WWII rationing era when desired items/ parts were neither readily available necessarily, nor cheap. By the 2000s, I watched with a mixture of awe and disgust as I saw the concepts I’d grown up, seemed completely overtaken by ‘buy now, pay later’, ‘I got mine’, ‘affluenza’, ‘throwaway mentality’ and ‘keeping up with the Joneses’. I resisted the urge to join in for the most part (as have some family members), leading what is probably a very modest lifestyle by most standards, saving cash for a rainy day (or a covid-19 outbreak) and always with an underlying gratitude for just how good we have it for the most part.

      I watched with interest during the GFC, to see if it changed societal values – it didn’t. If anything, we doubled down afterwards!

      In terms of interactions with people over the past week the atmosphere has completely changed from ‘business as usual’ to one that is sombre with perceptible trepidation and outright fear. I never, never encountered that during the GFC, even when markets were tanking and people were losing jobs. When I see the behaviour in supermarkets, I’m glad I did a self-defence course a few weeks back!

      • I’m in a similar camp. Grew up modest and watched on as everyone around me gorged on debt and multiple investment properties.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Agreed. I suspect this is “The Big One”. History making, once in 100 years. Interesting times for sure.

      • A valuable contribution.
        I am horrified by the waste I see in renovations – when completely serviceable parts of a house and thrown in landfill, and in apartment building – when a decent house with backyard is knocked down and replaced with inferior shelter, etc, etc

        • I’m mortified at how quickly cars get junked for the same reason. I’m glad I never got caught up in the buy now mentality. I’ve always been a delayed gratification type person.

          I’m looking at adding planter boxes to the yard. Start growing stuff. Just wish I had of quit my job months ago or a few months later. Oh well.. I have savings but would rather not spend them.

          I’m blessed to live where I do, rather than an apartment block in the city.

          I honestly think a lot of this is being overblown. But it’s good it is making people reflect.

          • Mate check out no-dig gardens. There’s a group of nutjobs on the net into them (I am one).

            1) Create the area (hammer together broken up packing crates/or buy from Bunnings)
            2) Lay down cardboard/newspaper to kill weeds
            3) Alternate layers of carbon (coir) and nitrogen (chook/cow/sheep poo) about 6 inches thick
            4) You can go over the top a couple of inches as it rots down pretty quick. Top layer best to just use bags of compost, with rows of seedling mix if you are keen.
            5) Plant seeds direct (lettuce, beans near somewhere they can climb) or start stuff in seed flats/mini green houses

            Edit: Neglect! comes at the end!

          • Thanks Harry, mum is growing stuff up at Kinglake and my brother is in Healesville with a bunch of veggies growing in planter boxes (previous owners had started). It’s inspired me. My work colleagues got about $600 together for my leaving gift at work. So I’ll use that to start it and send them a photo to show them what I did.

          • Someone ElseMEMBER

            Just be careful about the soil. There is lead in all the soil from the old anti-knock additives. Especially so in suburbia (and still in avgas, so still really bad near airports).

            The lead is hell on developing brains so if you can avoid growing in existing surface soil (and stop chickens eating/foraging in contaminated soil) you’ll be much better off.

            Or be a woman. They can reduce their heavy metal loadings.

          • My house backs onto a nature reserve in Warrandyte that I doubt would have contamination problems. Not major air traffic over this way either. So think I’m good. But can’t be too careful.

    • ScoMo had dinner with Triguboff and some other identities recently – we’ll be fine.

      Source: The Sunday (Courier) Mail

  5. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Even Bitcoin down. Over 600 today.

    The world has truly gone mad!

    Ps. Property still unaffected. LOLLOLOLOLOL

  6. Brother works for Virgin as aircraft engineer. Strong rumors circling they are bankrupt and he’s concerned for his job.

    As for the Banks, I’m calling Westpac goes bust and get a bailed in. Runs on bank to start and giving Scomo st am excuse to enact neg rates and cash bans.

    Banks won’t allow you to withdraw large amounts of cash without several days notice and hiring a security guard and visiting multiple branches if you have six figures or more. This is going to get real ugly real fast.

  7. 5min ago I got back from my walk and just heard two neighbors chatting one saying that his work shut today. Some people sent home no pay some will work under.. not sure what conditions as I walked off to far.. Looks like some companies started to shut without waiting on Scumbo to give an order.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Do you not like Boris, a lot?

      I only ask as the one thing I wouldn’t blame him for is the FTSE crackin’ into the fours. Plenty of other stuff. Not that.

      Annecdata: passed a rub-joint that was and I can barely (heh) type this out loud it’s so horrible, shutting down. Furniture on the footpath, signage already removed, interior stripped back to as per move-in. End times indeed.

      I can only imagine how stressed Reusa is starting to get at the mo.

    • yea they can’t eat donuts and fight crimes while worrying about corona
      Speaking of where is the donuts eater the traveling Wilbur ?

      didn’t see him since he hopped on that plane

    • That made me realise that police need criminals to have a job. No wonder so many go corrupt. They know it’s good for the policing industry.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        not Bali per se.

        Australians have been urged to avoid all non-essential overseas travel as the global coronavirus pandemic continues to escalate

        but if you insist (sry, don’t know how to find the earlier advice as it is being updated all the time)
        https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/indonesia

        Still current at:16 March 2020
        Updated:16 March 2020
        Latest update:We now recommend you reconsider your need for overseas travel at this time, including to Indonesia and Bali. Indonesia has confirmed more COVID-19 cases. The risk of transmission is increasing. A foreign tourist with COVID-19 died in Bali on 11 March 2020. There is limited availability of testing and infection control facilities. Critical care for Australians who become seriously ill, including in Bali, is significantly below the standards available in Australia. Medical evacuation to Australia may be not be possible and, if it is, very expensive. It may not be covered by travel insurance. If suspected or confirmed to have COVID-19 you will likely be placed in quarantine by Indonesian authorities and unable to leave Indonesia until cleared or recovered. Indonesian authorities have implemented a range of measures aimed at reducing the spread of COVID19 including travel restrictions, cancellation of events, closure of tourist attractions and asking people to avoid large public gatherings.

      • Sorry but all I get from that article is just how useless our government’s response is. If they have it then they may have spread it big time but they and their fellow travelers won’t know for days.

  8. BoomToBustMEMBER

    Is anyone aware that the RBA governor is married to a principle analyst at APRA?? Seems like a rather large conflict to me.

      • +1 in Hindsight some will see how much money could be made from this current situation. But since I’m a pussy cat, I’m not even gonna try. Just preservation is my game.

      • There sure will. Im looking at 50-60% down on the s&p500. When it gets close i will start looking at where supports might be to see where it hits rock bottom. Its moving much too quick down imo which makes this especially hard

    • 50% cash and 50% defensive option in Australian Super and still down 3.5% with worse to come. Just about to move to all cash.

      The vast majority of people will be in the default “balanced” (lol) option which is 50%+ equities so they’ll be getting smashed.

    • Did the same, went to cash on 6/2/2020 then rolled over to the MB fund. Mrs Plug was looking to buy an IP a couple of months back and we made a few reasonable offers. So glad they were refused. If they come back now the offer has halved 🙂

    • There was a 55yr old woman who wrote in to the Sunday Mail saying she was ‘terrified’ that her Super had dropped $40k (from $370k to $330k)in the recent turmoil – this was a few days before Black Thursday and the Even Blacker Monday, so what she’s feeling now, dog only knows.

      • Went 100% cash pre Xmas. Thought it all looked weird. Every market was fully priced way beyond reality. But now I do not know what to do? But I have no cash in Westpac. But then again, will that even matter? Cash could get gobbled up.

        • Well, you’re in a very enviable position. Wish I was 100% cash right now. I’d wait for the volatility to subside and then start trickling back in – stay away while the liquidation plays out. Oil has been decimated so you may want to look at some oil plays when the time is right.

          The monetary interventions in the US won’t work IMO so I’m thinking that the Fed will buy stocks and credit at some point, but central banks elsewhere will need to do the same. That could turn things around, if not sooner.

      • Sounds like a high growth fund heavily weighted in equities which she should have never been in at 55 and presumably not an experienced investor

    • Awesome same I moved it all in early Feb and can’t believe my luck. Mind you I’m still young and don’t have heaps but still enough

    • 10% equities 90% cash and bonds.
      Did this last week. Was 70% equities.
      Was not quick enough for initial sell off but still up 5% over the year. Happy to sit and wait now

  9. The Traveling Wilbur

    Now, now. Be nice. We can’t all be omniscient share-trader tycoons. There would be no one to make a market with. And besides…

    whocoodanode eh?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      There was a footy talking head on SEN who repeated that nobody could see this coming bit many times today. Couldn’t get through for a quiet chat unfortunately. Nobody challenged him at all. Still better than the wokesterism which is afternoon ABC wireless though.

      • I’ve been stiring everyone on FB that nobody could have seen this coming. Of course I’ve been sharing articles on the impending apocalypse for a couple of years now. So.. I have that going for me.

  10. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    Highly recommend this Macrovoices podcast. Interview with an Italian based, American macro finance expert.

    Covers the build up, the week it took off, what it’s like now for hospitals (confirms the triage stories), the everyday people, and small businesses. Also discusses Italian and global economy impacts. Can’t recommend enough

    https://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts-collection/macrovoices-hot-topic-podcasts/808-hot-topic-9-lenore-hawkins-boots-on-the-ground-from-the-red-zone-covid-19-lockdown-in-italy

    • Cheers.

      https://covid19info.live/ has now breaks things down by region and country.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIMXekRVnHo looks at different countries, their doctor per 1000 ratio, actions taken and a few emails from people inside the countries. It really seem to be a case of not if, but when, we go to lock down.

      Local Woolies report from Darwin. TP is out. Pasta is very low. Large bags of rice gone. Bread mostly gone. Long life milk is low. People seemed civil enough and cashier was polite. It only seemed a little busier for after work.

      • Some Darwin related anecdata: Spent half my day at work picking an order for a Darwin store. It blew my mind that I was in Brisbane packing super expensive high end sports-fashion shoes and clothes for a store so far away when most places don’t even have the essentials at the supermarket. Definitely not essential work and the govt should definitely be making me stay at home along with the 30 odd New Australians I work with who all seemed to get back from OS just before their country was added to the restricted list…

  11. Even StevenMEMBER

    No one left to buy? Only because I’m running short of cash! Not due to lack of will!!!

    Yes, property will take a hit. No, a big four bank will not fail. How could one go from highly capitalised to insolvent in 4 weeks? Someone is smoking some serious weed. I also note that most (not all) of the people making those comments are not MB subscribers. I’ll let you read into that what you will…

    • Australian banks are the safest in the world. Since they hardly lend to small businesses in favour of property they have very little exposure to the collapsing demand that will cause many small businesses to go under. I’m fact the fortuitous recovery in property prices means if they mark their property assets to market now all should be fine and dandy. But when people lose their jobs and can’t pay mortgages and collapsed businesses need to have their underlying asset sold then we can expect problems, but that’s like wave 3 of this crisis. Maybe after they run out of stimulus and the virus runs its coarse and we are to go back to normalcy but the economy can’t actually recover because of the fear and damage.

    • Used to subscribe, don’t anymore. Doesn’t deem a comment any less valid.

      Bank won’t fail as they’ll be bailed in, ergo a “technical failure” much like a “technical recession”.

      Westpac is rooted.

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        Won’t even be a bail-in.

        RBA and Govt would be providing massive financial support to banks before a bail-in (of depositors, creditors) was even on the horizon.

    • You can buy my 10 acre water secure bolt hole in the northern rivers if you like

      Downsizing/more time with young toddlers only reason for selling

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        Fair point. Highly capitalised relative to the GFC. Well capitalised relative to foreign banks.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      4 weeks ago the S&P, the ASX etc were at all time highs.

      4 weeks ago, the 8th largest economy in the world was completely fine and WuFlu was something that for the Chinese to worry about.

      4 weeks ago oil was at a ppb that everyone could make money from and the Saudis, Russia and US shale were all playing nicely.

      4 weeks ago all global credit markets were functioning predictably, if not “well” (totally not QE4)

      This is unprecedented. This is not like the GFC, because financial market solutions can’t solve real market problems like WuFlu.

      And who says that Westpac was in a tip top shape 4 weeks ago ? Scotty ? Asleep at the wheel Glenn? Mr invisible APRA ?

      • Even StevenMEMBER

        Agreed. This is unprecedented. This will be more damaging economically than the GFC. Bad debts will rise. Bank profits will come under intense pressure (if the almost 50% fall in bank share prices hadn’t already told us that).

        Will a big four bank FAIL, though? No. Unlikely even without government/central bank support. Impossible with it.

        A vaccine will be available in 12-18 months.

        We are not reverting back to the Bronze or Iron Age.

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          Will a big 4 fail ? No, IMO, not in a Bear Sterns way anyway.

          Could a big 4 need Govt bail out ? I think it’s likely.

          The speed and the severity of this crash, in markets globally, is not something that apra would have stress tested for.

          There was a stat over the weekend: the US stock market’s previous record of peak to bear market (20% off peak) was 45 days. This was in 1929.

          The US stock market just did the same in 16 days.

          That is insane and it’s still dropping. There will be all sorts of assumptions in financial models being blown up daily.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Dude what planet are you on? Their swaps book will be horrendous and getting worse. What if they can’t meet margin?

  12. Arthur Schopenhauer

    My local labor federal member sent me a thank you very much for the pandemic propagation info I sent her last week.
    Said it was very useful.

    • Still way too much high frequency trading……it will have to be curtailed more……the same trouble with the Treasury markets everywhere…..it is not the Treasury trades so much as the futures and derivatives they use to hedge their trades with…….no one wants to hedge the end of the world trades some want to make.

  13. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Corona Test results blown out to 2 weeks in VIC. Much better this morning. Still tired & sick, but with fewer virus symptoms.

    We have to stay shutin 2 weeks from the test result. That could be a long time (for the whole family!).

    Anyone find any papers on how long the viral load stays after recovery?

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Thanks for letting us know what it’s like, any liver damage? Asking for a friend …… and Wilbur

    • I have heard reference to virus loads in saliva and faeces several weeks after recovery. Some debate as to whether it was still contagious.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        AFR had a story on the weekend that the virus has been present for up to 37 days; and well after infection symptoms had stopped.

        Haven’t sent it mentioned since. Either a rogue source or, it’s been stomped on by Scotty’s 1984 media team.

    • A Saturday test in QLD (North Brisbane) only took 24 hours for results. Must be less people presenting here ATM…

  14. TailorTrashMEMBER

    For many years now the lads at MB have talked about how an external shock would undo the great Ponzi economy ……well the external shock in the shape of a little bat virus is here ….so let’s see how resilient the miracle economy is ……….can the government and the RBA do what ever it takes to save the economy ?…..and house prices.?………….18 Months has arrived at last it would seem……………….( or Straya truely is different…………soon we might know )

    • This will ruin the Libs for a generation as the Rudd/Gillard years ruined Labor, that’s the only silver lining in this whole thing.

      Opportunities abound in this crisis for us to restructure the country into something productive, cynic in me says old guard will do everything they can to ensure business as usual.

      On a personal note, two things I hope come out of it in terms of a shake to the Australian psyche A) How stupid it is to rely on one foreign country economically and B) that the whole multiculturalism/diversity/mass immigration facade about unity and civility is knocked on the head. The carry on at the supermarkets clearly show it’s everyone for themselves and adding in foreign cultures with high levels of in-group preferences has only made that worse.

      Time will tell.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Yea but will any new faces wanting to fight for change show up to run either party or any new one………… and who are actually decent people ……… instead of narcassistic ar%eholes

        • True, thus is the paradox. It’s up to us to change it really. Wanting someone else to solve our problems is another psychological perspective Australians need to reframe.

          • DingwallMEMBER

            “Wanting someone else to solve our problems is another psychological perspective Australians need to reframe”
            Is it ?

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          “but will any new faces wanting to fight for change show up to run either party or any new one………… and who are actually decent people ……… instead of narcassistic ar%eholes”

          Thats up to whether or not “decent people” choose to turn up and take personal responsibility for the cource their Democracy is taking.
          https://www.alp.org.au/about/join-labor/

          • Join Labour

            Step 1: Attempt to topple the hierarchy and union infighting.
            Step 2: Resign

      • I’d like to think so. But I have my doubts. Speaking to the old boy this evening he still struggles to get it. He moves as fast as the latest press release. He’s already forgotten that he was telling me that “It’s only the flu.” a week ago. Tonight he was feeding me the latest nonsense. He gets shirty when I tell him off but thankfully his better half has worked in health and is more connected to the real world.

        Until the press is held to account the leaders won’t be. Sometimes the ABC tries and it is only in times of crisis that they are allowed to put experts up unopposed. Or when the blatantly obvious can no longer be hidden. Otherwise it is somehow unbalanced to not allow some opposing nonsense or the PR face of a massive vested interest on.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What do we do if this is it? You know, the poo at 40c, houses for fifty bucks, iron ore being used for road foundations. Do we all just clock off and go home? Afternoon Ralph, afternoon Sam.

      If there’s no more 18 months is there no more…*gulp*…future?

  15. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    so query me this?
    unless you meet the criteria you can’t get tested.
    symptoms + contact with known CV or from o/s hotspot.
    in other words we are not really testing community infection transfer, so stats are low.
    and until we have community transfer we don’t have a problem, so carry on as before.

    • But if your a politician you will be tested despite not strictly meeting that criteria and not only that, they will have results to you within 6 hours. Carry on.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Debbie Kilroy was quarantined and tested because she was in the same flight as Dutton days before he was tested. She’s now positive and isolated. Dutton shared a packed room with Scummo and Co a day or two before he went positive but no, they’re safe as houses.

        This country…

        • I love it. Is there any time in which Dutto was or will ever be contagious? Seems like a no. Doctors in this country as as corrupt as pollies.

          • Got to call you out on that sledge against doctors sorry

            What’re you basing that on

          • Reverse Transcriptase

            Doctors are being told there are only so many assay kits and so much time to get tests done. They need to focus testing on people who are becoming sick to guide isolation within the health system. The point is not to identify all the well people in the community that have it. There are just not the resources to test everyone who wants to be tested.

            Doctors are not corrupt – if they were you would read stories on the internet that you can get a test in Sydney if you slip them $50.

            There are no such stories, at least not according to Google as of right now.

            And remember ‘what you can read on the internet’ is wide enough to include such lunatic ramblings as:

            – The Americans faked the moon landings
            – The Holocaust was a lie
            – The Earth is flat
            – Climate Change is a made up left wing plot
            – Immigration is good for Australia because v—ancy

          • Basing it on the fact that Dutton was supposedly not contagious on the flight, not contagious meeting with cabinet, and probably has never been contagious at all. According to a doctor.

        • Here’s a snippet I picked up from this Sunday’s papers: Scummo and Dutton had dinner in Sydney last Tuesday night at a restaurant in Barangaroo with various wealthy businessmen, one of whom was ….Harry Highrise ….

          Fingers crossed ..

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Desperately need fast testing kits ………… how many thousands of hypochondriacs are lumping up to hospital saying they have it. And on the opposite side of the coin how many have it but wouldn’t even know (or care in a lot a cases)

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      There are not enough test kits, they are reserved for people with a higher chance of testing positive. When it runs out, they won’t be testing at all, and the pandemic will be declared over.

      Or we could make more test kits, but that would take money, and Australia need to reserve those for propping up our banks.

    • Unfortunately, that’s the way it is here. Don’t test, don’t tell.

      If I wanted to get tested I’d have to create a story along the lines of…. I was out the weekend before last. I made some friends and we got along famously. There was myself, an Iranian, an American, a Chinese and an Italian. One thing led to another, and, I hate to kiss and tell, but all I’m going to say is that there were fluids everywhere. Kink knows no boundaries of nationality or race. Anyhoo, I’ve now got a sore throat and a bit of a cough so I thought I’d get a test. Can we do more than just covid-19? Now that I’m talking about it to a professional I’m really concerned.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      State health services don’t have the resources for large scale continuous community testing programs. Not the people, the labs, or the tests.

      What they are doing is swarming every single positive test and then aggressively back-tracing, contacting and testing every person they have come into contact with. That works for most scenarios but starts to fall down if they use public transport or go to a well attended event etc.

      Listen to the linked podcast I posted above. It was in Italy for much longer than they thought… and then it reached critical mass and exploded.

  16. Bnich!
    His golden hair waves in the wind.
    Bnich!
    Stands astride the calamity, almost bored.
    Men admire and women* desire
    Bnich!

    *ymmv

    • Women fantasise about bcnich as their husbands enter them. The husbands fantasise that they are bcnich as they enter their wives. Their pets wish that they were owned by bcnich.

      I have taken to shouting “BCNICH” during moments of pleasure, as he predicted.

      Is there nothing this man cannot do? No thought he cannot inspire?

  17. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Anyone keen to predict when the Russians will say … Oil has gone too low. We will stop pumping….

    What is the floor? Under $US20 per barrel? WTI is about to go sub $30!!

  18. BTW on the drive to site this morning around red hill I noticed some ADF vehicles which looked like TOC stuff.

  19. looks like China is slowly restarting. now we have to see if they get hit with second wave.

  20. Lets not let the property money laundering reporting slip between the corona headlines
    https://amp.nine.com.au/article/f2fea1c1-20fc-4002-b567-a0aaaa0abbee

    Billions in drug profits poured into Australian property market, AFP says
    It’s not clear exactly how many homes in Australia have been bought or sold with profits derived from the trafficking of crystal methamphetamine, but authorities fear it’s an increasing and booming trade.

    “We know that obviously they (Asian drug lords) still move large quantities of cash. They also use cash in order to procure properties in Australia and then sell those properties downstream,” Kent told 60 Minutes guest reporter Chris Ulhmann.
    “And therefore, the money’s laundered.”

    Aint he the AFP?? Why not shut down the businesses then?

  21. Friend of mine works in the Defence Force, discussions about 5 days time the state will go into lockdown (Victoria/Melbourne).. I don’t know if it will but I suspect it will.

    • I’m hoping. It means my dastardly toe breaking plan will work. I get to protect my crap immune system wells before our sinfully negligent government gets their butt into gear and I at the very least postpone a temporary trip to hell and possibly defer a permanent one!

    • Could this happen just in vic – there’d be plans in other states ? Just cap cities ?