Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

It’s still ugly out there with Asian equities falling sharply but not as fast as Wall Street overnight, but all stock indices are now in bear market territory for the year. Currencies are mixed with a small bounce in undollars, with the Aussie lifting off the floor but only just, while gold falling another $15 to be around the $1565USD per ounce level.

The Shanghai Composite is down over 3% going into the close, currently at 2826 points while the Hang Seng Index fell twice as fast, down nearly 6% to be at 22904 points, and now looking extremely oversold, right on the monthly uptrend:

Japanese share markets are the biggest casualties in the region, despite Yen stabilising with the Nikkei 225 currently down over 8% to 16984 points, to yet another yearly low. The USDJPY pair is still in a stall phase here, unable to breach the 105 handle and ready to head back to support at the 101-102 level, despite the BOJ stepping in for another unscheduled buyup on bonds:

The ASX200 is actually up! Whoah! Yes, there’s green on the board with a 1.4% rally going into the close after briefly dipping below the 5000 points earlier in the session. Perhaps the news of a potential vaccine plus ScottfromMarketing saying avoid large gatherings this afternoon (but you can still see the footy this weekend!) is the catalyst? Who knows at this stage. Even the Australian dollar rallied, albeit meekly to just below the 63 handle as it still hovers around the GFC extreme lows (lower black line):

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are falling again but its hard to tell given the circuit breakers still shooting off on each session. Maybe the vaccine news (which will take up to a year before even distributed if it works) will imbibe a rally, or maybe a decisive speech by the orange faced idiot in the White House?

Let’s see. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 show price is still below the lower trendline from the 2008 low so unless this thing rallies soon, its more of the same, as all of the gains since Trump came to the office have now been wiped out.

The economic calendar is relatively clear tonight, thank Dog below, but there could be more catalysts around the corner. This is prime time risk management.

As I said this morning, just remember this will pass – help each other out and have a great weekend!

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Comments

  1. So, just heard on radio the government has doubled the hours international students can work to keep supermarket shelves stocked?!?! Not sure if was WA specific. WITAF is wrong with this country? Let’s let walking virus spreaders handle all out food items so the virus can sit on it waiting for you to take it home with your timtams.

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Saved by the futures! Lol we’ll see what the other indices do overnight but I’m not buying it.

  3. So, Peachy crying “uncle” yet?

    Peachy, your problem was you never appreciated juat how many things could go wrong, just how many variables there are and how sharp the knife’s edge was that we are sitting on. House prices are toast. Not in 18 months.. not in 18 weeks. Try 18 days.

      • – MANIPULATION
        – The ASX was 5383 at the close at 4:00
        – But at 4:14 precisely it shot up to 5540 at 4:14 – a 157 2.9% jump – in after hours trading.
        – Best after hours manipulation for years. On a Friday close too.

        • Depending upon which website you were looking at, you might have been seeing prices lagged by 15 minutes.

          Not saying it isn’t manipulated! Just saying it might not have been after hours?!

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yes, but that only delays the action from being seen – it doesn’t change the date and timestamp on the action.

            And if there’s someone out there not looking at the date and timestamp on the action that they’re referencing when they talk about ‘the close’ on here, then I have some bricks I’d like them to melt down and give me fair market value for.

            (the breeze block kind, but we’ll keep that bit just between us)

          • FYI – It was one minute real-time chart on Interactive Brokers – a leading US options broker with robust technology systems. I like reliable real-time data as I have traded options both in US and Oz for years.

          • Yeah yeah. So I am looking at the data on my iPhone’s super simple and probably fairly dumb stocks program and it shows prices spiking from around 1% up to over 4% up between 3.46pm and 3.59pm. But not after 4pm.

      • Agreed, closed a BBOZ position on opening this morning and then reopened just before close. It’s the kind of day scalpers dream of….

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Maybe it was RBA. There was rotation out of AAA paper into the equities starting at 2pm. Probably saving the banks so they don’t blow up this weekend?

      • Define strong. Can you rub two bob together? Yep. Tick; pass, thank you. Can you survive stagnant wages, low employment growth, poor consumer expectations, tepid business investment and concurrent natural disasters? Sure, the boss is dining with the PM tonight. Tick; pass, thank you.

    • Positioning for the weekend. Short covering etc. Fed and ECB potentially arriving with oodles of free money for stock market speculators. Just like here in Straya they’re all that matters in the world.

  4. who buys on Friday and holds stocks over the weekend?
    there are some strange people out there, they must be using someone else’s money

    • Very big balls or very stupid. I’m going with number 2. Check out the finance section over at whingepool and the amount of BTFD crowd and younguns waving their d!cks around stating all the reasons it can’t fall much further. There is going to be a lot of white knuckles and crying online very soon.

    • Short covering? Remember the GFC Sunday night announcements by the FED? Always Sunday night. Who would want to be short for those.

          • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

            no sporting events had been cancelled last weekend. This weekend: NBA, NHL, Serie A, Golf, most likely EPL, La Liga, Grand Prix

            If the NRL actually had balls (to stand up to Scotty from Marketing from the Shire) and cared about their fans, would postpone the season as well. Then there’d be Armageddon

          • NRL should be fine as they don’t have crowds > than 500 #amirite

            Over to the AFL where the real action is-fascinating to see how Dill McLauglin handles this particularly membership refunds, compensation for lost match payments, gate take etc and sponsors . Do they add a loading to broadcast to account For increased eyeballs watching from afar

            The eagles will be SPEWING if the season commenced sans crowds as their evident home ground parochial crowd effect on umpires like the hopelessly compromised razor Ray are nullified which will be excellent for Melbournes run to the flag and my collect on Petracca for the Brownlow at 51-1 (this may not age well)

            It’s a near – moral that Melbourne will win its first flag in 56 years in front an empty MCG. So so Melbourne

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Melbourne numbers were down last week. Going by the panic and the toilet paper security I saw today I can’t imagine too many venturing out to die for a house.

          Then again, I’ve been wrong so many times…

    • It depends on how long you intend to hold that position. Experienced short term traders would incorporate volatility into their position sizes. e.g. if volatility is five times the normal then you only need 20% of normal position size to gain/lose the equivalent amount.

  5. SAR below $3 until this arvo.. but I did not have guts to do it. Bought few more NCM and AAC in the morning.. very few.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Yea I have started sifting the gold stocks to make a list of likely buys…. then wait for the rightish time …. what tho? NCM, EVN. RRL ?

      • RRL and SAR at these levels.. my view.
        NCM already jumped to $25. lol
        AMI is also attractive at these levels but is not pure gold – Au, Cu, Zn, Pb and Ag.
        WSA for Ni exposure..
        AAC and CSS as local food – especially if the world is going to shut.
        Those are my picks.

          • sun spots.
            I am in world of pain but still holding. Bought some more at the bottom but it is risky now. These market crashes stuffed me up on ALK. These guys were supposed release assay for drill 100m north from the two drills that discovered Boda but Orange lab is running late as always. That confused the sh1te out of me and decided to hold which puts me in difficult spot now.
            I still think this one is winner but at these levels a risk if assay come really poor. There will be short term pain until assays from the south come out. First 2 drills point to decent size porphyry ore body but no one knows its geometry so not all drill will be peach.

  6. so it starts from Monday eh? SO the chnt can go to his footy game and finish his pentacostal gathering on Sunday. he really wants his rapture badly.

  7. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Had to do the school run this arvo and the mums aren’t happy with schools staying open.

    Also work near a Costco and cars were lining up to get into the carpark.

    The F1 banning has spooked the cattle.

    • I took missus for a 20 week baby scan in city. Driving in Ringwood it looked like school was dismissed at Lunch time for local high school.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        It was madness driving to the school. Lunchtime when I finished work I usually have the ring road to myself. Bumper to bumper today.

        Panic is the new black.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Oh, I forgot this!

      The Woolies at my work shopping centre had a security guard in place today to assure the one pack of poo tickets per person was adhered to. And weren’t the punters whinging about it!

      Straya. Is. Toast.

  8. Fyi, my own personal loss is $16k in the NASDAQ over the last few days. Market high I had $68k in stock. Now $52k. Tomorrow who knows? I plan to HODL for now.

      • Maybe but I’ve held a lot of them for less than 12 months. So would pay full rate of CGT. So not sure what to do. July is when some of that will drop to 50% CGT.. but half of nothing is still nothing lol.

    • my small holdings were totalled at about 105k at peak, now ~80k. Im in some financial independence groups with people having >2mil in equities, their losses are eye watering

    • Tough spot. There will be a bear market rally. Probably up 10% or so you could sell into it but imo ot will roll over again after that. Everyone will be looking to do the same and try to claw back some before getting out. Its a bear market now.
      FYI 114k had at peak and 108k out. Takes my ytd at 11% thought it best to call time out for now and wait

      • It makes sense that stocks should eventually roll: once actual earnings, or at least projected earning come out, I’d reckon that markets will sell again.

        Is there an ASX earnings announcement period coming up??

  9. CORONAVIRUS … ESSENTIAL VIEWING …

    How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan … YouTube
    h/t TG

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR21NxG3xwuyruQz9UgPiotAjezxr-K9zkLktZcBAD90dMXDiJSjxlYKrGw

    Google Search – Michael Osterholm

    https://www.google.com/search?q=michael osterholm&rlz=1C1GIGM_enNZ518NZ518&oq=michael osterholm&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.64927j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    … Distribute & discuss … thank you

  10. We need to start thinking about bringing those soldiers in the Middle East home after a suitable quarantine. Virus is breaking out in the refugee camps and it won’t be long before the armed formations in Syria and Iraq succumb. This is no time to be in the trenches or what passes for them nowadays.

    With exquisite timing the US Army has just dispersed 20,000 soldiers with their equipment in continental Europe for large exercises who even if they don’t leave their cantonments now are greatly at risk and will be the devil to safely bring home.

  11. Ok so it is now beyond obvious that our state and federal governments and the medical officers that advise them have completely dropped the ball wrt taking action to flatten the curve of infections and give our already over stretched health care system a minuscule chance of not being over run. Therefore with bitter tears in our eyes and a sense of unavoidable impending doom, now is the time to make some hard decisions if you haven’t already done so. We cannot rely on the government to take responsible action, therefore we must do it ourselves. We now need to ensure we do everything possible to ensure that we at the very least do not contribute to the sh1tshow that is about to occur, and that we can alleviate it to some degree. That means you and your family don’t get infected. That means self isolating as much as possible or increasing your social distancing. Take a long hard UNEMOTIONAL look at the situation of your family and everyone’s health conditions. Hopefully you’ve already got your medicines stocked up. If you have family members who are physical risk takers get them to stop doing anything physically risky (or at the very least plead with them to reduce their risks and be careful) because you don’t want a compound fracture or anything to happen that might require hospitalisation. We need to start behaving as if we don’t have a functioning hospital system because we won’t in about 2 weeks, 3 at the most.
    It is time to get serious and take action to protect yourself and your loved ones. You are being the responsible adult in the room, unlike all the other muppets and people who are slow to adapt to changing circumstances. Good luck!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Indeed. Even managed to convince Lovey’s family not to have a three generation family dinner at the local glassing barn tonight because both Lovey and her dad have respiratory issues. It seriously took the F1 ban to make them sit up and realise something was wrong. Lovey and the boy are now shut-ins. Going by the attitude at work I’m going to have to quit to become one with them.

      If Lovey gets it she’s toast. Morrison is the one who deserves to die, not the innocents.

      • I’m glad to hear you managed to finally convince her family of the severity of the situation. I’ve basically quit both my jobs under the guise of the broken toe (bl00dy useful thing that has been) though neither of them know it yet. I hope that Lovey doesn’t get it but if I remember what you said a little while ago you’re only working as an antidote to boredom so walking out of your job is an option. Man who ever thought it would come to this? That using the luxury of quitting a job because of an aerosol borne respiratory viral pandemic would actually happen? All my dystopian novel reading and movie watching has come in useful!

        • You’d like to read the TV Pilot script I just submitted to the Sundance Festival yesterday. Virus, Utopia, Societal Collapse – think Handmaid’s Tale in the Garden of Eden meets Lord of the Flies and Moses

    • Darwinism will work its magic. Still, I wish we had a virus that worked more directly on low intellect and low morals

    • Thoughts and prayers Popcod. Well, I’m an atheist, so the equivalent thereof, if you know what I mean. 🙂

      I always enjoy your contributions on MB.

  12. NAB internet Banking is not allowing money transfers … Been like this a few days..wonder are they expecting a bank run??

    • Interesting. I avoided the big banks for this reason. Still scrambling to transfer most of my cash into short term bonds. These small transfer limits are a pain.

  13. Mining BoganMEMBER

    I listened to SEN for most of the day to get the goss on the sporting world bans. Gerard was quite good and sensible. Not so good and sensible were the punters ringing in to give their well thought out opinions. I’d reckon four in every five are still in #JustTheFlu territory and are absolutely outraged that any gubmint decision can impinge on their right to get p!ssed at a sporting event.

    It’s going to take an awful lot of deaths to change that attitude and quite a few mums in that tally. How many though? Thousand? 10k? 100k?

    • 250,000 Australians will die.

      Gerard was great –

      Caller:”Can’t we just wear masks and gloves and leave it up to us to decide if we want to go or not”

      Gerard: “The only people who really understand what we are about to face are those who lived through the last great war”.

      Stunned – radio – silence.

  14. Mandurah Crab Festival supposed to start tomorrow. Vendors just told this arvo it’s off. Poor buggers would have spent thousands on seafood for the event (it’s a pretty big event by Perth standards) Due to the lack of cases in Perth and the demographics of that area, makes me wonder if their public liability insurance was pulled?

  15. Any of you idiots realised yet that this really is just a bad flu?

    Now Dutton has it ?

    What are the odds ?
    I reckon a good 20-30% already has it and it won’t do jack sh1t

    What a fraud this whole panic was

    • With Tom Hanks as well it is clearly a LOT higher than 128 in Australia. You are presuming the death rate based on stats not being presented to us, and that we don’t need to slow it down to avoid Italian situation of neglecting the elderly once ICU beds are full.

      • im suggesting that there are multiples more people infected in Italy and in Australia than is being reported

        I am suggesting that the true mortality rate is <1%, which would put in the ballpark of a "bad flu"

          • You’ve missed the point Freddy

            These events suggest that many multiples times more people are already infected with coronavirus but don’t realize it

            Which implies that we are much closer to saturation than you think

            Which means that there will not be “many” more critical cases to come

          • Yes, we are possibly thousands or tens of thousands. We still have a long way to go to many millions.

          • Not seeing that many people with a bad flu to imply that hundreds of thousands have it tbh. Are you seeing that? Maybe everyone in your work called in sick? Didn’t happen at mine either. Hard to believe that it’s so mild in most people that they don’t care at all, but also kills some relatively healthy people.

        • China PlateMEMBER

          It’s a bad flu if someone else gets it.
          It’s the Wuflu if I get it hey coming

    • Italy and Iran are sinful countries. Everywhere else but especially the economically important places are good in the eyes of God and will be fine.

      All the famous people will get top quality care and probably survive, that will send a misleading impression, the virus is dangerous if you don’t get ICU care, plenty of middle-aged Italians died already.

  16. the number of cases here that were directly imported from the US is just shocking. This can only mean the US is swamped, and their reported cases very understated. I dare say the have more cases than Italy, just their lack of testing keeping the official tally low.

    This will ravage the US, due to a combination of factors but mainly, cold weather in the North, poor assess to health services for the poor, and possibly, the very large (MAGA?) crowd that think this is a hoax and take no precautions.

    • I think you might be right. Especially with Trump slinking off to his resort. Keep an eye out for a respirator being flown in.

    • The sequel to not testing people for coronavirus will be not reporting their deaths as coronavirus.

      How many plebs need to die before it becomes news? Maybe not that many because if a hospital is swamped and people die in the hallways, that’s news. But if hundreds of thousands of oldies die at home, it may never be reported.

  17. Once they start dropping like flies in New York and London the markets will free fall again. The Fed can’t stop the virus and it can’t stop a world wide lock down.
    You will know when it is time to buy when you look at your screen and there are no buyers, for anything.

    • But that’s the thing, people aren’t dropping. Sure they getting sick and it’s highly contagious but the mortality rate is consistent with other influenza strains and the mortality profile is consistent regardless of the region. The next strain could be a whole lot different.

      • Wow – holy smoke mate how far out of the loop can you get ?

        The absolute BEST case so far has been 1% – which is TEN TIMES worse than the flu. On average it is around 3.7%

        Australia will be by far the worst – we have done nothing, no testing, its everywhere and we have very poor facilities comparatively speaking and absolutely ZERO leadership and even less community spirit.

        Shocking levels of ignorance when there is just so much information available on this.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      short term = deflation ($10 oil will see to that)
      medium and long term = inflation and then, Armageddon

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      inflation in anything you want or have to buy
      deflation in anything you want to sell.

  18. So, I mentioned this a couple of weeks back and it’s still happening but i’m not sure if it’s because i’m a tard and don’t know how to use the tweeter properly. So if you search for covid19 or coronavirus with the “near you” thing checked you don’t get any results? It worked fine a couple of weeks ago and then just broke. Are they censoring this in Oz or what?

  19. Got some confirming second hand news out from Italy that hospitals are really struggling and supplies low. Doctors have decided to priorities patients under 65 years old

      • I wished today was Thursday so I could have sell everything on Friday. My feel is tonight US and EU markets will go up but over the weekend infection numbers will explode and futures will sinks on Monday morning.. so no happy exit on Monday. hope I’m wrong.

        • Lol, I know what you mean…I asked (barked) for virtual silence in the house as I sold half my bonds from 3:55pm to 3:59 pm, and then quickly bought USD with most of it!!! Never typed so fast….lol….

          Hope you get your chance.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Taylors Jaraman cab sav ‘16 and a half kilo of aged rib eye 🍷🤪
      I’m trying to lose weight

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          never heard of wet aged, i’m gunna look that up

          I’ve looked it up, definitely dry aged, bit like how my mouth is feeling right now

          • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

            dry aged is proper aged and more expensive. wet aged is what you can sometimes get in a butcher.

            great aged steak, red wine and an authentic mustard = heaven

        • Wet aged is just cryo-vacced. Its a meaningless term really. It does break down to a degree but nothing like dry aged.

          Even then dry aged is the most over rated palava on the planet – have been doing it for years in my fridges in the garage – buy whole sides on the bone (MUST BE ON THE BONE).

          Best steak in the world is a 12 year old dairy cow raised on grass. Nothing comes even close. Nothing.

          Once a beast is past a certain age (24 months) and has enough fat its pretty much down to cooking process.

          Dry ageing is just a great way to charge people absurd amounts of money, looks great, sounds great – wastes at LEAST 60% of the meat depending on how long its been done – and in no way shape or form improves the meat enough for it to be considered worthwhile to waste that much.

          When people talk to me about eating dry aged beef the first thing I ask them is if they eat game which has been properly aged.

          If people have eaten pheasant which has been hung with its guts in for a week to ferment (as it should be) then lets have a conversation. Most people would be close to dying if they ate meat with real flavour.

          .

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      1969 Petrus – 100% Merlot can be the best wine in the world! Love it as my quaffer.

      • OK fair enough. But when you really want to experience a wine, what do you go for?

        Assume it’s pre-60s Premiers Cru, but what precisely?

    • Any time they suggest there might one day in the distant future be the risk of a bubble… well.

    • Wonder if he was the recipient of a pot of honey recently?

      Edit: He, not you! But I’m suss about you too.

  20. Anyone see Albo’s letter to Scomo re: having parliament sit next week to address coronvirus and economic measures? Put that together with the Cash Ban legislation vote in Senate supposed to take place week of March 23 – money on them trying to ram it through next week when no-one is looking.

    That’s the real game played, not the virus.

  21. Is it too soon for me to wear nitrile gloves in public? They can protect me but also I can use them to murder any boomer who says both; It’s just the flu, and how can I get this pensioners stimulus payment?