ASX bath of blood flows into the streets

It is getting pretty damn impressive now. XJO has a 4-handle:

The sleeping RBA is still hitting bonds:

The Aussie dollar is off its worst:

Big Iron isn’t the worst:

Treasonous Big Gas is getting its commeupence:

Big Gold alas. Maybe nibble into this bust:

Big Banks whoa!

Big Realty thinks it’s immune. Lol:

Blood in the streets today!

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)

Comments

  1. Commsec Market Research page at the moment:

    404 page not found

    They might be having issues.

    Bounce back up to be only 4% down? Is this right?

    • China PlateMEMBER

      funds will be used to meet “tax obligations” (amongst other things) the statement says
      yeah right

  2. Take CBA out of the big 4 and the remaining 3 are closing in fast on their post Lehman lows.
    Gold in AUD terms is holding up OK. The Oz is doing all the heavy lifting by sh!tt!ing the bed though.

    • Reverse Transcriptase

      Yeah – I noted that yesterday.

      As best I can tell
      WBC GFC nadir was $14.52 – currently around $15.66.
      NAB GFC nadir was $16.18 – currently around $15.91.

      I would give these a wide berth in terms of:

      – deposits
      – excess cash in offset
      – trade bank guarantees
      – alleged ‘pre-approvals’ you may be thinking of toting to auctions this Saturday

      • LOL! I’ve got most of my cash split between these two to comply with the $250K guarantee! Wish me luck.

      • I find it really interesting that at this minute the market, IMO, is moving on fear alone. There really isn’t much that has been released that would quanlify the stock price response to the likely (really bad) revenue impact of nCoV-19.
        Will Australian banks fair as bad as they did in the GFC? That was close to end of days stuff for the banking system globally.
        I don’t see that circumstance locally or globally being that bad (apart from China – an internalised problem, and Italy – a potentially really big globalised problem albeit protected by the lunatic ECB).
        This is all just a herd response at the moment. Everything we know today about nCoV-19 and its impact we also knew a week ago and knew almost as much the week before, etc.

    • Sobering indeed: what took 5yrs has now been undone in a matter of weeks. Escalator up, elevator down.

      But there’s more: After the 1929 stock market crash it took the Dow Jones 25yrs to recover the losses.

      (Particularly relevant to retirees who dismiss the latest market action with: Don’t worry, it’ll come back.)

        • I think we have the potential to get there i.e. I think the fundamentals would justify a fall of that magnitude, however, I don’t think we will simply because the tsunami of central bank liquidity will prevent it – even direct intervention in the equity market itself is a possibility right now

  3. So, we’re seeing leverage induced liquidation of risk assets. Now then, where else might we see such action over the next few months?

    Luxury cars? IPs?

    • I heard of someone just getting a $1,200 two week ski holiday in Italy. They are braver than I yet sometimes a bargain is very hard to resist.

        • Yep. Even if it is booked for next February and the virus is cured, there is extreme counter party risk, ie the provider may be broke and gone (with your money) long before then.

    • The housing markets that get rogered soonest and deepest are holiday areas. Think Gold Coast, NSW Central Coast (beaches), Byron, Sunshine Coast.
      These areas during the GFC took an absolute belting in terms of peak to trough falls

      • Yep, the coasts are a Barry Crocker – there will definitely be forced sellers around. A small business owner who wants to survive will be kicking out the holiday unit / beach shack with undue haste ..

  4. darklydrawlMEMBER

    The international ETF I purchased back in the GFC are all looking good still, as are a couple of other locals. But the rest of the ‘also rans’ are a sea of red and overall in the red too. After holding BEAR for over a year with continual dribbling losses I closed it out in Dec. uh huh…. This is why I am not a trader! I am like Gav though. A good indicator to do the opposite! 🙂

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Hah, I think I should be obligated to as a public service to other investors! Will keep you posted. It’s damn tempting to get in now actually. This sh!tshow is likely to get worse before it gets better. If for no other reason that any kid under the age of 30 hasn’t known hard times or how to emotionally handle it. They’ll go to pieces pretty quickly I suspect.

        • Fk, I’ve been hovering over I’d for days. Didn’t have the figs as it’s my savings and I followed the old “if you can’t afford to lose it, you can’t afford to game it thing. Still got my super to cash at the start of the week, got clipped a little….but holy crap I feel better now!

          • darklydrawlMEMBER

            I understand completely. BBOZ is also highly leveraged so it can reverse on you quickly – right now it on a tear upwards and is great (but only if you purchased in recently – otherwise you would have been bleeding cash for months). BEAR is more ‘steady as she goes’ but naturally the returns are less stellar when it goes your way (and less painful when it doesn’t). Choose your poison.

  5. I’ve been watching zombie films over the past week. It really helps to put things in their proper perspective.

  6. AUD has lost 10% in 4 days.

    Will be below 50 cents in another week or so.

    Tell me about the trade surplus and iron ore / coal / gas……

  7. Calling for @Bnich, please tell us about those sun spots. Sorry we flippantly disregarded your warnings.

    The last three months have been unfvcking believable. I thought 2020 would be bad, but this is orders of magnitude worse than that.

    • I understand from bcnich’s almost last comment that he and DL-S had chatted. Seemed like no hard feelings. Possibly not a fit in terms of goals? It was mysterious, but not nasty. Still, bcnich comments alone helped me make a lot of money this year…

  8. BoomToBustMEMBER

    The big question though – when will property prices start to follow the global share markets. We think its probably a month or 2 away at this stage.

    • Yes. Long lag on property.

      I went to the local shops just now because it has an ATM outside I can get to with minimum human contact. The cafes were all full, mostly with very elderly people. It’s still a few weeks off sinking in I think.

      • Agree. Most people still don’t know whats happening in the markets. People here probably check the ticker everyday. The average person… never. People don’t even know what their super balances are let alone what fund their in. Its only been 3 weeks since this hit the fan. People are asking me why I look stressed

        • I spoke to one real estate agent last week who said two bidders dropped out of an auction because their share portfolios had fallen and they no longer had enough to play. Now that was a week ago when the market was down 10%. Now we are down 30% so there must be more of that going around.

          That said no other agent is saying that, the rest are all bullish as hell.

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            How is this for a rare indication that some people in RE have a soul.
            A friend of my partner and her husband have paid off their apartment and have been looking at an upgrade.
            At an auction on the weekend they chatted to the RE agent afterwards. When they explained the situation he straight up said to them that if they didn’t need to buy, then the next 12-18 months would be a great time to sit on the fence and see how the whole recession plays out and it was very unlikely they will end up paying more for whatever they are looking for at the other end.

    • It’s not a done deal. The LNP will do anything to prop it up. Here’s something to think about…

      What id they decided that instead of QE money going direct to in-trouble banks, they instead used QE money to pay off in-trouble mortgages? Brilliant! Banks out of trouble, specufestors out of trouble, house prices solid as a rock, no one hurt (other than those loosers who rent or have fallen behind on their responsibility to borrow)

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      think buyers will disappear.
      sellers will hold, cause #itsonlyflu
      until they have to sell, then we might see some price action

  9. What risk a bail – in?
    I’m holding a large amount of a family member’s cash in a mortgage offset, so should probably divest that back to them

    • Arrow2 wrote a really good comment about a week ago about why this is unlikely.

      Hey A2, I can’t find it. I’m feeling nervous again. Can you please re-post?

      Arty

      • What burb said above basically covers it… no upside to a bail in and plenty of downside. Vested interests are equally well served by a bail out, so there is no way they will bail in given the negatives.

  10. Just sharing:

    OK, I sold BBOZ. Made ~15% in a day, so happy to make some spare change on some spare change.

    Assuming there are not going to be any enormously bad news pieces over the weekend, my gut says the market is oversold and has selling fatigue.

    More nastiness to come, I think, but I’m happy to cash out for now.

    Will think about what to next 😛

  11. This article was published too early, isn’t aging well. Considering ASX closed +0.5%…..