Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Another volatile day on Asian stock markets, this time to the upside for most outside China, as a modicum of stability returns to risk markets following the epic falls on Wall Street overnight. A battle over the direction of gold saw it eventually fall back below the $1500USD per ounce level late in the trade while other undollars are also slipping against USD after a lack of movement earlier. What’s going to happen tonight? Who knows – its a game of two halves, its not over til the fat lady sings, its really hard to make predictions – especially about the future.

Doing nothing sometimes is the right thing to do, but the hardest!

The Shanghai Composite was down significantly before the lunch break but has recovered somewhat into the close, currently off by only 0.7% to 2768 points while the Hang Seng Index is putting in a scratch session after also starting lower in the day, currently at 23058 points:

Japanese share markets have diverged with the headline Nikkei 225 unchanged while the TOPIX advanced 2.5% with the USDJPY pair almost unchanged after a brief look above the 107 handle:

The ASX200 is keeping everyone on edge with a near 6% rally! This is nuts, but normal nuts if that makes sense, as it closes nearly 300 points higher to 5293 points as traders await the RBA to do something soon. The Australian dollar had a tight trading range currently just over the 61 handle and forming a bullish falling wedge pattern on the four hourly chart that could be presaging a spike here, but I’m very very cautious:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up 3% which sounds good but let’s put that in context! The four hourly S&P futures chart is still very depressed here and requires a close above 2600 points – at least – before even suggesting a bottom is anywhere to be found. Look at all those steps down:

The economic calendar has two major prints, first the German ZEW Survey than the US retail sales numbers for February.

 

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • So again persons who have returned from overseas and did not isolate for 2 weeks. And medical workers even. And we expect all the travelers coming here to isolate. What a joke. Close the damn borders. How often does it need to be said.

      • They can not afford not to work
        The government needs to pay these min wage people the min wage otherwise there is zero choice

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Yep, bloke at work telling me his chef mate went to NZ last week for wedding. Came back to quarantine, no food in house and no casual work because restaurant strip gone quiet. Toast.

          They need to go households.

          • This may be the turning point of UBI. The 1% capitalists will resist until the rope starts getting thrown over the lamp posts.

          • In Canberra, bloke at work has three kids at various stages of uni; all casual, all have been been let go from their hospitality jobs (bar/cafe). Eldest, casual uni student who works in a club received an email today, hours are being reduced. If the government bans gatherings over 50 people, might as well shut the club. Discretionary spending has taken a massive hit.

  1. Hi Chris. Thanks for the arvo update. Right now, I am basing my trades on underlying fundementals and pretty much ignoring chart patterns. Nothing wrong with technical trading, I do it a lot, but things are crazy right now. Shorter term trades are too volatile. I’m going to longer term trades based on fundamentals like USD safety

  2. Mining BoganMEMBER

    So there I am, standing in front of a new hairdressing shop with the WuFlu signage out the front saying closed for two weeks Poor lass only opened it a month ago after a long renovation. A lady walked up beside me and I said that didn’t last long. She tells me she owns the new cafe.
    Oh, how’s that looking
    Okay, we get lots of passing trade from the school
    Schools will be closed soon
    Oh love, we budget for school holiday drops
    No, I mean extended shutdowns because teh virus
    People will still drop in.
    Okaaay. Planning for if cafes are closed down like Europe?
    No, we’re ahead of that. We have UberEats
    No, I mean forcibly closed
    Why would they do that?

    • Opened a business just over a year ago with the complete knowledge a huge crash was on the cards. Now looking into the depths of depression our businesses should boom in times like this. We are finally finding quality staff been able to negotiate huge reductions on rent whilst feeding the masses a healthy cheap on trend product that should boom in time like this. It’s a exciting yet scary as nothing is certain but so damn happy it finally arrived. It’s about time we start to balance the scales!!

  3. Sons flat mate bought a Bali holiday on the weekend, cos it was cheap.
    Son said you could catch Corona, and bring it back, spreading it around.
    Reply “So f#$king what, its only deadly for older people and mild for young people”
    Lovely !

    • This is a legitimate response to the boomer problem. Wipe them out. Redistribute. Happy Times.

      • Yep.

        A 90-year-old woman died on Saturday

        A 77-year-old woman has also died from coronavirus, NSW Health said on Sunday.

        Three other Australians, aged 95, 82 and 78, have also died.

        • Actually none of those are boomers, oldest boomers are 75 (born in the baby boom after WW2 I think is the standard calculation).

          The poor [email protected] in their nineties could have actually fought in WW2, or certainly lived through it. The Silent Generation.

          Reading through their wiki page we might be about to have another of those generations.

          “ The Silent Generation were children of The Great Depression whose parents, having revelled in the highs of the Roaring twenties, now faced great economic hardship and struggled to provide for their families. Before reaching their teens they shared with their parents the horrors of World War II but through children’s eyes.

          … Their attitudes leaned toward not being risk takers and playing it safe. From their childhood experiences during the Depression and the insistence from their parents to be frugal, they tend to be thrifty and even miserly. “

          • It would be glorious to swing from overt consumerism and globalism back to frugality and nationalism.

          • That’s my Mum and Dad…born in the 30s….to A T.

            They grew up in the depression on rural dirt farms and it affected their entire lives. Never spend a cent you don’t need to.

            As a case in point, I didn’t own a pair of shoes until I was 8. “Shoes? You can have some when you need them”. Went to school bare foot and thought nothing of it. Everybody else was the same.

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            It’d Be nice to see Jacob acknowledge your point Arrow.
            A much more noble generation than consumerism indoctrinated Boomers.
            The description of that elder generation is my 94 year old neighbour to a T also.
            Ha Ha,…he drives his boomer kids crazy with his criticisms of their ways.

    • The coronavirus has claimed the lives of several young medical workers. Among the youngest was 29-year-old respiratory and critical care doctor Peng Yinhua, who worked at the Jiangxia district People’s No 1 Hospital in Wuhan and died last month from the disease. Peng had planned to get married over the Lunar New Year holiday but postponed his wedding to help treat coronavirus patients.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Based on that he probably won;t bother to self-isolate for 14 days on his return…………

    • When is he going? If it is in about 10 days your son may be lucky as his flat mate may not go. I reckon in about a week we will be getting some scary stats on numbers of deaths for people 20-50. Should make people need all those extra tp rolls they bought

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        That story doesn’t smell right. Morocco is not without teh virus. Why would he be going there for a short trip in the current environment? Maybe business but then surely the company would be stumping up costs. Just sounds odd.

        • Morocco would be a good spot for cheap weekend trips from London, I think it’s not at all unlikely that a young slightly dopey bloke would go if the country hasn’t got many (tested) cases of the virus yet.

  4. Have been told to work from home until April 1st. My job is as safe as it gets. Took the opportunity to head into the city to the Bullion dealer and take advantage of the drop in Silver. It’s back to where it was this time 12 months ago when I started stacking. Came home with 3x 10oz Perth Mint bars and 1x 10oz Kookaburra coin. Came in just a smidgen under a grand. Seeing as I sold a non running rusty “classic” car a week ago I thought I’d roll a portion of the proceeds into pm’s. Was considering buying more but also need to maintain a liquid position for flipping other automotive bargains and vulching property.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      The Townsville boomer has been going heavy media concentration to try and blame everyone else for his actions.

      • That was a nice takedown of Joye. I would be happy to see his smug face with tears running down it if his fund tanks, even when he seemingly has the ear of just about everyone who matters in financial circles.

        • Yeah but his daddy is filthy stinking rich. He won’t need to worry about money, but papa will no longer be proud of him.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      cjoye who was busy creaming his pants about what an econ genius Morrison day after the election, hasn’t been seen in quite some time…

      This country is a joke

    • Comments below are good too. Lindsay David is taking about RBA and APRA keeping Westpac solvent. Second time I’ve read that comment in 2 days.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Went to the supermarket in what used to be that most genteel of Anglo suburbs this avo ( now a nigh number of [email protected] ). Shelves bare in many many catagories …. the usual plus eggs most meats no mince and not one skerrik of chicken frozen veg non existent too

    Then I went to the garage to top up on fuel . A hearse pulls up next to me to fill up ….oh dear ….not a good omen …..
    As I went in to pay the bill John Donne was in my head

    “any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind, and therefore
    never send to know
    for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

      • Lol only bread left yesterday was some gluten free special bread. I grabbed it. Haha.

        • We’ve stockpiled a lot of flatbread / wraps. Not quite as nutritious as good bread (better than crap white bread obvs) but tasty enough and keeps for ages.

    • Yeah took a photo. The local coles had no eggs. Thought that was odd, it’s the thing you really cant store for long. No flour.
      No potatoes of any kind. Lots of pumpkin.

  6. During troubled times and urgent gathering of supplies, I’ll tell you what often gets overlooked.

    Garden fences.

  7. I thought there would be some sanity today and we might get the ASX200 flat but nooooo.
    Day traders swinging this wildly. Still much more downside unfortunately as people sell into every 1 day rally

    • Yeah I bought some BBOZ today. Figured it was as good a chance as I would get to get into it given I’ve been focused on other things and finally got my head around to thinking about this.

      • innocent bystanderMEMBER

        I had thought about selling mine when asx200 got 4 handle for a bit but I’m still holding.
        the swings and gyrations are entertaining I’ll tell you that.

      • Nice. I picked some up today too thinking the same. I think the next stimulus and RBA on Thursday may see things bounce around but once we hit 1000 cases and everything shuts down can’t see the 5 handle holding.

  8. Love how Scummo and cHunt are hiding behind the fvckwit chief medical officers recommendation to keep schools open. Catholic schools just pulled the pin according to wireless. I give it two more days.

    Poo might be in the 50’s by end of week.

  9. In preparation for electricity blackouts, I thought I’d better spend some time gathering entertainment items.
    So yesterday my wife and I watched three movies back to back.

    Luckily I was the one facing the TV.

    • Must’ve been really short movies… wait… ooohhh.. that doesn’t matter, does it?

    • I’m in the electricity industry. Demand is going to bottom with a lot of manufacturing winding down and CBD offices shutting. Very few people are required to keep the lights on unless there is a major weather event. Can’t forsee any major problems with water or gas either. Be much more worried about NBN.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Is “the shocker” really a secret handshake with you guys, or is that just a dark rumour?

        • I remember a useless workshop; “agile” or whatever it was, where every conceivable hand gesture bar the shocker was there on a poster. May just be a greeting amongst those still on defined benefits, something else we don’t talk about.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Ah yes, defined benefits, another of life’s hardships the boomers had to endure…

      • Chatting to someone today I found out that their partner is in Japan for work. A lot of it is quarantined at the moment and their internet is struggling to keep up. It’s unlikely ours will hold up to increased teleconferences, file transfers and streaming. All of my large file transfers are done from and too fibre to the node, max everything connections. While home is fttn the up and down speeds will drop massively. Quite a few face to face meetings have been changed to video conferencing. Some of these were planned to go over multiple days. The whole network is going to get quite the stress test.

  10. So when is the MB shut-in cark it pool starting … traders gotta bet on others risk thingy ….

  11. DingwallMEMBER

    https://www.smh.com.au/

    Front page picture over the heading “Forget the official rhetoric. China isn’t over the virus”. What is he scanning? A bar code stamped on her arm or 😲 some chip under her skin ? Or is it just some fancy temp gauge?

  12. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Just had a talk to an office worker whilst walking Jack & Winnie. Glazed eyes not interested in economics. He works for a Cruise Ship Company.

  13. Virus has brought an end to my lucrative gig over in NZ. Fair enough. Back to working in Aussie oil & gas, but the industry is shutting down here also, so who knows for how long..

  14. Presently holding USD in a CommBank account (I know). Thinking of converting it to AUD when the poo is touching bottom. I suspect this would need to be an in-branch transaction…however I’m now worried lock-downs/ close-downs may prevent a trip to the branch. Any advice? I’m also of the understanding these kinds of accounts aren’t covered by ADI.

    • Use ofx/currencyfair to convert. The bank will rape you on fx conversions. And no, not covered.

    • You can do it online easy enough, just not through the app. Be prepared for some pretty shocking rates though..

    • Timmeh is right. You should be able to transfer the USD into a currency provider like the ones he names, then convert it, then move it into an AUD account. CurrencyFair is my preference but not sure if they work for transactions where both ends are in the same country.

      Or Give TorFX a call, they are another one, they have good customer service over the phone and good rates.

      You will save hundreds of pips over using the bank. Or put it another way, about $400-$450 for every $10,000 you are moving. That is a huge percentage.

    • I moved $170,000 USD through Currency Fair recently for my house settlement. I can recommend them.

      However be extra certain about the reference no. you use to deposit in their $USD. Use a small amount first to make sure it goes through. It caused me 3 days delay first go. Once money is in and recognised transferring can take time depending on the rate you want. It usually gets converted in smaller amounts and will depend on what others on the other side of the trade are willing to trade. $3k here, $5k there, $20k there. Etc.. took a few days for my money to fully convert and currency moves around.

      When I went to convert money back to $AUD bank after conversion I had to prove my wealth was legit. I showed them the money had come from shares I’d sold, but it was an anti money laundering check I guess.

      Let me know if you have questions about it?

      • Thanks Gav. Can you clarify this bit

        “However be extra certain about the reference no. you use to deposit in their $USD. “

        • CurrencyFair gives you details when depositing money in $USD with a bank in New York. Simply getting the ref. No. Correct is not enough you must also include the full details exactly as shown or it could cause you issues.

          Just follow the instructions verbatim, I didn’t include my full name correctly and money was returned to my bank. Westpac charged me a processing fee for if too of $25. It was less strict when I converted Euros.

          • Brassicas, Gone Baby. Leafy stuff like spinach, I’d you like that. You could get some peas in too perhaps – depends where you are obviously.

            In cooler climates the time to plant emergency food supplies was 3-4 months ago. Standard agricultural cycle – sow in spring, reap in fall. Stuff doesn’t really grow in winter, see.

        • Made a drive in today to pick up a swag of seedlings myself, after producing 76 kg of tomatoes over summer, have brussel sprouts, spinach, cabbage, broccoli, onions, potatoes going in..

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      We’re doomed then. And you know the best bit? You’re all going to die trying to imagine the sound koala girl made.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Couldn’t take it seriously. A true WTF moment. Then she got all self conscious because I’m tactless and said WTF.

          Mates said there were previously recorded examples of this behaviour in their pasts but I don’t know if they were discussing koala girl or generally in the wild. Looking back I realise I hung out with her longer than I should have just to giggle at the noise.

          #toxicmalebehavoir

    • What part of a medical conference requires a trip to Antarctica? If that is part of the conference ticket and they are all writing it off, we are all being done over.

      • It’s all part of the rort between the doctors and dentists and big pharma along with medical/dental supply companies. Free conference for buying products and writing scripts.

        • I know doctors that can find a conference anywhere they are thinking of travelling. Language is never an issue. I’m sure that as soon as a colony is set up on Mars a conference will be organising there so that they can write off the trip.

    • I know someone who used to (and probably still does) go on these. World class tax deductible shenanigans. Surgeons attending talks on croup in children with evening cocktails after perusing the Inca ruins, cardiologists listening to talks on gynaecology poolside in Havana. All “medical education” of course.
      Ruin it for the rest of us who actually go to land-based conferences related specifically to our specialties.

      • Yep. It always bothered me everything the doctors I knew could write off. Going out for dinner, grab the receipt. Going on holiday, find a conference. Salary sacrifice almost everything. They were earning a motza. Others I knew were also working hard, and no where near as much, and didn’t have access to all of these things.

  15. migtronixMEMBER

    FTSE crashing again. Seriously who did Morrison blow for his – singular – 6% lift?

  16. got email from Telstra letting me know that if I exceed my mobile data maximum charge will be $100 and speed will be capped at 1.5Mbs for the reminder of the month. During this period I will not be able to make phone calls. these people..

      • my wife just told me Optus sent her email letting her know if she works from home needs extra data she can apply for 20GB free extra data. fckn Telstra.

        • innocent bystanderMEMBER

          I’m with Aussie BB, they have said everyone gets unmetered no questions asked

          Aussie Broad Band users…
          Helping customers
          Because it looks like many of us will soon be stuck at home, we are putting these measures in place:
          Providing unmetered data usage between 6am-6pm for all customers on limited data NBN or ADSL plans (in your local time zone)
          Stopping all service suspensions*
          Enabling any of our few remaining customers on 12/1 speed plans to upgrade if necessary to help them work from home
          These measures will be in place by Wednesday 18 March.

    • Seems odd ?
      Telstra has “Peace of Mind” for mobile plans.
      You get shaped to 1.5 Mbs once you use up your monthly download quota.
      Phone calls are not affected, if you are on unlimited type call plan.
      You could be on a Legacy plan (old one, no longer offered), might pay to look at their current plans and change if it gives you a better deal then what you have.

      • it is legacy plan and old rule was just to slow me down. what I suspect is they are behind with revenue and are desperate to stitch few people in order to close the gap.

        edit.. easier to move to Optus and pool my data with my wife and son. fck em.

    • Optus emailed me to let me know as a mobile (postpay) customer I get a free extra 20GB of data for the month of April to cope with all the extra streaming in the potential home isolation.

    • Have a look at Kogan prepaid. Unlimited talk n text and excellent download value. I switched from Vodafone to Kogan with a 1 year contract. It was 13Gb per month IIRC for $15 per month which was fine coz that matches my usage quite well.

  17. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    People stockpiling meat and eggs now….. Fkn dumbest western country on the planet

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Best tweet in ages was Trump, the fat idiot, telling people not to hoard. Literally calling his base f#ckwits. Alex Jones can’t even spin enough idiotic sophistry to explain away why he loves tyranny all of a sudden!

        Seppos lol

        • Here AJ got a DUI …

          PS can’t wait till the deplorables vs the despicables OK corral event ….

          • migtronixMEMBER

            It’s going to be grimm and unavoidable. Maybe we can teach the f#ckwits to play tic-tac-toe and see if they learn

      • if you have a gun you don’t need to stockpile food and toilet paper. You can just knock politely on someone’s window with the gun and they will help you out.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The next shortage will be freezers and fridges as hoarders run out of space to put their loot.

    • I’ve been stockpiling meat for years and keep a moderate amount of egg pulp frozen as well. What’s wrong with bulk buying and planning ahead? Haven’t needed to panic shop for this very reason…..

    • If the current actions of our people are anything to go buy, we’ve turned into a genuinely sh1t nation.

    • And at my local Aldi along with meat and eggs: butter, pasta, pasta sauce, all tins except fish, water bottles, TP (obviously), arse wipes, tissues, baby wipes, nappies, washing detergent and probs bother stuff too. I went for coffee, so all good. Panic bought a couple of wifi switches too just because they were a bargain.

  18. Arthur Schopenhauer

    This is accurate:
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239587299136098305.html

    Was feeling good. Now back to sht. Fortunately it’s only the second bout of crapiness today. You really have to take it easy.

    I don’t need a test to confirm it. The symptoms are the same as in the linked twitter thread.

    Fckn.

    Not so interested in the economy at the moment. More obsessed with getting the current crop of chaff out of Parliament.

    Double fckn.

    • Anyone spot the glaring contradiction
      “Had to help with childcare in the evening – either baby has doubled in weight or I’m half as strong”
      Protect your patients.
      Protect your colleagues.
      Protect your friends and family.
      Protect yourself. (10/10).

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The kid probably got it at daycare. Going through all the likely vectors, it probably came via my kid from school or Tennis. She is cold-like sick. Very mild.

        Less likely it came from neighbor.

        There is every likelihood he could get it again when he returns to the hospital. His wife probably has it. And his folks can’t come and help. Cut the guy some slack.

    • Because I’m a top bloke I just poured a st paddies day whisky to make you feel better

      Is it working, please advise

    • I’ve had a very mild cough, light headache, little fatigue but no fever, sweats or otherwise. I’m pretty sure I don’t have it, but all this talk of it may be causing my body to believe I have it. Weird times.

    • Geez Arthur, really sorry to hear this..Hope all ends up well.Keep on top of vitamins, and keep hydrated..seriously hydrated..keep a bottle of water and make sure you drink on the hour..

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      There is something wrong when the pollies get their tests back in 4 hours, and the plebs get them up to 14 days later.

      • Fuсk me, that’s some strange coincidence, hey?!

        I suspect that Mr Tom Hanks got his result quicker than a fortnight, too.

        Someone do the numbers for me please. If the mean test turnaround time is 14 days with a standard deviation of 2 days, what are the chances that 3 out of 3 MPs tested will get their results in 2 days or less?

        Assume normal distribution.

      • The same algorithm will be used to determine who gets access to the extremely limited availability of respirators.

    • Bet the Maldives are happy to have these newlyweds, fresh from their Covid-19 reception, honeymooning there.

    • I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again there are already hundreds of thousands of cases in Australia

      Quarantine and shut down is a waste of time

      Best option now is to let it run

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Sydney may be gone, but the other states still have a week to save themselves with quarantine, school closures and social distancing.

  19. Work for large national logistics firm in the warehouse/on the dock. On Thursday we start split crew shifts, half in morning, half arvo, separate car parking, separate entry/exit, separate lunch room, message was shutdown can happen anytime but their actions seem to say we’ll make money until the govt forces us to stop. This would make sense if we were doing essential work, but we’re doing luxury retail. 75% casual crew so of course we will all work until we’re forced not to.

    • My work is doing everything possible to stay open as long as possible. Including having a 14 day international travel exclusion policy because we have many vulnerable groups using the centre. Everyone has to keep 1.5m away from other people while on pool deck. The council next door closed all their sport and rec facilities on Tuesday. Thank good for broken toes

  20. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Also did notice on my visit to the supermarket this arvo that the popcorn section was stripped bare ……..didn’t think MB had that many readers…
    …….jeez…… that little bat bug is is putting on a show ……….that’s for sure

  21. Just received a panicky sounding email from my super fund advising me against moving my super out of equities into more conservative options. Apparently I may lock in losses if I do that.

    True for some, but I made my defensive moves just before the peak, and avoided about $60K of potential losses. Those who are still in the balanced or high risk options have been smashed, and I think more is coming.

    If you have 10 years or more before retirement then buy and hold may make sense. With a couple of years to go, GFC level market falls can delay your retirement, make it poorer, or both.

    Anybody want to bet on the ASX being back over 7000 at the end of FY 2022?

    • I am not going to take that bet but what puzzles me now is gold. I know there massive margin calls raining on lot of people but I also thought there would have been solid bidding too. Every country is cutting and printing like there is no tomorrow. all the bailouts that will be needed will double the Govs debt.
      I still think gold will be trading at $2k by Christmas but nothing will surprise me.

      • During the GFC gold crashed and the buying became so rampant afterwards the Perth mint suspended selling because they ran out. I remember because I was trying to buy. It then ran up over the next few years, but the poo outpaced it for aussies to make a buck. Expect the same this time, but with the poo in the 40s
        If memory serves it got to about 63k/kg in aud at the top. We are now in selloff and around 80k/kg. Just another year or so before the golden times for holders in aud.

      • Meh…. Possibility of being dead in a month or two is puzzling.

        Had a small nibble of NST yesterday from the speculative funds bucket. Might have another nibble next week. After a European Bank collapses and the volatility that goes all asset classes doping I might consider another nibble again.

        Don’t actually expect gold to increase in USD terms – would be nice if it did though. Figure the USD will still keep rising against other currencies (including gold).

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Can you still borrow for shares against your house? At the start of the GFC, houses in Ivanhoe & Eaglemont plunged about 30% over a couple of months as the margin calls rolled in. Fire sales everywhere. Outer suburbs still ratcheted up.

        A few sweaty palm in the eastern suburbs at the moment.
        Anyone want to call house prices? (QE)

      • According to several of the alt media YouTube channels I follow there are serious runs on PMs overseas and many online dealers, and slowly walk in ships are running out/low on stock. Physical price could very well separatefrom paper pricesoon. I’ve gotmy 5k sitting at Perth mint waiting to buy

        • I am hearing same but can’t confirm if true. For last 2 years I’ve been thinking same – price of physical gold will diverge from paper. I think that will play out once enough paper holders try to convert their toilet paper into real gold. I don’t think we are far from that point as people start to panic and thinking to have real stuff in their hands instead of piece of paper.

    • How about this one:

      Thank you for visiting *CENSORED* MemberOnline – the secure and personalised section of our website.

      We’re sorry, but we’re currently experiencing a high volume of members using the system and can’t log you on at this time.

      Well, there you go!

        • Just pulled mine out into cash… will be executed Friday… probably by a bullet at the back of the head… 😕

        • Yeah… Just pulled mine out into cash… looks like the request will be executed Friday… probably by a piece of high velocity lead at the back of the head… 😕 … whatever the fvck knows what the drops will be by then … ☹️

  22. matthew hoodMEMBER

    Well all footy in the NE of Vic had been postponed until the 31st of May. On a more positive note, I went into the Yackandandah supermarket after footy training and all the shelf were full and no panic buying to be seen.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Shhhh…Heard on the wireless today that big city desperados are hiring busses to travel to country towns to clean out their supermarkets.

        • My sister says Ballarat was sacked by the locals( she lives up that way).
          Apparently there have been people setting up roadside stalls in Ballarat and nearby Lake Bungaree selling single rolls of toilet paper for high prices.
          The Police need to get involved.

      • Yes, have seen this in my surrounding country towns…There was no tp or any shortages, then BAM , locals are Not Happy, a lot of talk happening around the local Landmark and Dalgetys, wouldn’t want to be a stranger in the local supermarket now, guess there might be locals helping you pack your groceries…

    • truthisfashionable

      Yackandandah is a beautiful small town. I especially like that they still act old school – mateship. The community owned servo (and power now?) Is such an ‘up yours’ to the big players.
      https://ycdco.com.au/

    • There’s your warning, boarders will close and/or you’re on your own if you fall sick. Not hiding any subtilise there. Get back now or be dammed.

  23. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Lovey says people are still sending their kids to school because if they don’t they lose Centerlink payments.

    Is that true?

    • blacktwin997MEMBER

      Well in our case it’s because having the kids around really cuts into Mummy and Daddy time.

    • Work for the dole is still in full swing in SE Qld with no plans to close it as of yet. My mate who works for a job shop is appalled he still has to send people with minimal to no indication of safety/future plans from higher up.

  24. Cormann the cvnt on the next package; “We will ensure that they have got the appropriate levels of support through this transition to the other side when there will be a strong bounce back and a strong recovery.” Seriously? How the fvck can this stool say “there will be a strong bounce back and a strong recovery.” when it was a mere four days between packages because the first was an absolute fvck up. We’re so rodgered, no wonder people are hoarding.

  25. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The government is following public opinion before acting. Locked into their culture of opinion polls and slight of hand. We are so farked.

  26. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Today the reported cases of COVID-19 infected outside China has overtaken the number inside China : 81133 in China, versus 101403 outside. While the Chinese number has to be taken with many grains of salt, but my in-law just bought facemasks and hand santizier in Shanghai and is shipping them here : that is an indicator the virus is under control in China, for now.

    The death rate in Wuhan is bad enough, but the death rate in Italy is outright morbid as it heads toward 10%. For the scenario described by our Chief Medical Officer in Australia that willl be 4 million infected and 200k to 400k deaths. Working health system result in <1% death rate, while a overwhelmed health system will result in 5%+. This pattern is demonstrated in Wuhan, Italy and Iran right now. Spain, Germany, France and USA are on its way there.

    The one lesson from Wuhan is that face mask for those in the front lines will save lives. The front line doctors and nurses were not allowed to wear them in the early stage of the epidemic because 'it would scare people', and many of them ended up infected. In Australia the same stupidity is being repeated with the supply of mask being reserved. I will use a quote in Far Cry 3, by Vaas, to describe the situation.

    "Did I ever tell you what the definition of insanity is? Insanity is doing the exact… same fcuking thing… over and over again expecting… shit to change… That. Is. Crazy. The first time somebody told me that, I dunno, I thought they were bullshitting me, so, I shot him. The thing is… He was right. And then I started seeing, everywhere I looked, everywhere I looked all these fcuking pricks, everywhere I looked, doing the exact same fcuking thing… over and over and over and over again thinking 'this time is gonna be different".

    It is not going to be different.

  27. Banana ManMEMBER

    I think i’m going to make a nanna isolation camp. I think i could look after about 200-300 nannas here
    Like, old people, not specifically banannas

  28. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing
    · 4h
    Replying to @DrEricDing

    14) Source of the full report: Imperial College #COVID19 Response Team
    WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
    Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

    Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing

    15) BOTTOMLINE: To survive the #COVID19 epidemic, to wait until vaccine in 12-18 mo… extreme sacrifices in personal freedoms will have to be made. Report author Prof Ferguson warns: 📌“We might be living in a very different world for a year or more” 🌎 won’t be the same again.

      • That is the basic time for Lab to Mfg and initial rollout.

        With profit [greed] expectations based on billions of people and focuses the minds of even elites, one can only wonder how it plays out till then.

  29. With the Poo (AUD) holding below 0.60 as I write, do we think RBA QE will send it up or down?

    My gut is AUD down, but the RBA do tend to accidentally send the AUD up, don’t they?

    • Based on past performance, both in words and actions, my expectations are low … so likely up

    • There is some small chance the reverse effect will occur.

      Ie they do too little (as always) so the market goes “Fark this place, they’re farked” and liquidates Aussie bonds and flees offshore. Poo down.

      But that seems far too logical and hence the opposite will occur.

  30. Now here is an interesting conspiracy theory if you want:
    Impact of coronavirus on stock exchanges worldwide, within 1 month:

    🇺🇸 -26%
    🇬🇧 -26%
    🇨🇦 -25%
    🇧🇷 -27%
    🇷🇺 -20%
    🇦🇪 -19%
    🇿🇦 -16%
    🇦🇺 -24%
    🇮🇳 -14%
    🇸🇬 -17%
    🇭🇰 -12%
    🇰🇷 – 17%

    Now, look at this:

    🇨🇳 (China) + 0,3%

    China, creator of the pandemic, has miraculously “recovered”, has almost no more cases of coronavirus. The world is now beginning to feel the effects and panic about the disease. Who recovered first ?? China itself! It seems to be that this virus was a move by the Chinese government in response to the loss of the trade war with the United States. The goal: to throw the world into recession !!!
    Is the scenario not clear? They are already growing! China bought almost everything it devalued on the stock exchanges around the world … with that the Chinese became owners of the global companies that are in China and without the money leaving China.

    • I’m with you Tom.

      There are some very large elephants in the room which are becoming difficult to ignore.

      Maybe this just worked out very well for China – losing a bitter trade war and coming to the conclusion Trump could be there for another 4 years.
      Or maybe this was deliberate.