Australian Shares

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Trading Day – 17th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is steady this afternoon, pausing in the second leg of a correction that began in early April (down over 7% or 300 points). Asian markets are also down, the Nikkei down 0.44%, the Hang Seng 0.45% and Singapore 0.86%. The AUD is up slightly to 1.0562 against the USD, whilst gold is

17

Bears come out to play

Brokers have caught on. They must be reading MacroBusines. Much of the Australian economy is not in good health, Dutch disease is fast becoming Australian disease, and earnings forecasts in many sectors may be pretty dodgy. As more bearish sentiment starts to grip the market, the question it raises is: is it time to buy

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Trading Day – 16th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1% this afternoon, continuing the second leg of a correction that began in early April (down over 7%). Asian markets are also down, with the Nikkei down 0.6%, the Hang Seng 1% and Singapore 0.7%. The AUD is down to 1.05 against the USD, and 85 against the Yen

9

BHP and the buck

As most of us will have heard, we’re a blessed country entering a second mining boom that is starting up after the first one was doused by the GFC in 2007.  This second boom will be longer and stronger than all before it, improving our terms of trade beyond anything this sunburnt country has experienced

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Trading Day – Friday the 13th

The S&P/ASX 200 is down slightly this afternoon, with some intra-day buying support similar to US markets recovery last night. Asian markets are down, with the Nikkei down 0.25%, the Hang Seng 0.4% but Singapore up over 0.46%. The AUD is back to 1.06 against the USD, and 86 against the Yen (which is highly

1

Trading Day – 12th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1.4% this afternoon, after digesting the slump in commodity prices and US/Euro markets overnight. Asian markets are all down, with the Nikkei down 0.8%, the Hang Seng almost 1% and Singapore just over 0.6%. The AUD has slumped to just above 1.06 against the USD, with a midday update

12

Grantham calls the top

For those of you with a memory longer than a few days, it was Jeremy Grantham of GMO who famously called the bottom in the great GFC equity rout. Whilst I never put anyone on a pedestal, Granthan is one of the few equity strategists that sees the way markets actually work these days. Overnight

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Trading Day – 11th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up almost 1% this afternoon, after digesting last night’s Budget. Asian markets are up generally, with the Nikkei up 0.5%, the Hang Seng steady and Singapore up slightly. The AUD is rising past 1.085 again against the USD and 87 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200) Local

4

Budget buy bye

The budget does not seem to have spooked equity analysts, but it has not excited them, either. Perhaps, as Delusional Economics suggests, it is about the best that can be done in the circumstances — that is, not much. Balance the books, hope China continues to do well, nibble at the marging on skills shortage

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Trading Day – 10th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down slightly at midday, with strong intra-day selling pressure. Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down a little but Hang Seng and Singapore up. The AUD is steady at 1.07 against the USD and 86.5 against the Yen (which is highly correlated with the ASX200) Short term price action as

6

Lilliput Inc.

Australia’s bigger companies, with a few exceptions such as BHP, Rio and News Corporation, are awful at globalisation. This is becoming obvious with the Australian dollar at such high levels. Global companies adapt to high currencies by relocating production elsewhere, acquiring offshore, manipulating their cross border value chains. That way they can at least respond,

12

Low flying birds

I am not sure exactly why people invest in Australian airlines. Qantas is busy cannibalising itself with Jetstar. This was always a danger for a member of a protected duopoly, that it would go for the low cost solution and get a low cost result. Virgin Blue, sorry, Virgin Australia, is not expected to pay a dividend and

0

Trading Day – 9th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is up 1% at almost 4800 points after finding a bottom late last week. Other Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down a little but Hang Seng up, Singapore steady after their weekend election results. Short term price action as illustrated last week showed a decelerating correction – it looks like

0

Trading Day – 6th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is down but slowly recovering at 4740 points after last nights shock fall in commodity markets (oil down 10% alone, AUD/USD down to 1.05) Short term price action resembles a decelerating downtrend (note red curve under low points in last week on chart below). The index (XJO) is hovering above its 260

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Sell in May – a repeat of 2010?

Regular readers may remember that each morning I peruse my bearish sounding “Crashlist” before starting the day trading the Australian equity markets. This list comprises the major currencies crosses, indices, gold, 10 year US T-Note and the US Dollar Index. A well deserved dip in “risk” markets across the world has been transpiring for most

10

Hating Telstra

The market’s scepticism about Telstra is one of the most sustained negative critiques of a big Australian corporate yet seen. It makes an interesting comparison to the euphoria about telcos in the first half of last decade. The scepticism may be partly attributable to the after effects of that era. The stock is on a

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Trading Day – 5th May

The S&P/ASX 200 is steady at 4740 points with some intra-day buying support. Telstra is adding weight to the market, rallying up 1.4%. Retail sales figures surprised the unsurprisable economists, which has weighed slightly on retail stocks. The index (XJO) is dicing with its 200 day moving average (a closely watched indicator) and is still

2

Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down almost 1% to 4755 points from a 4971 point high on the 11th April, a 4.3% total loss in the current dip. Momentum and other technical indicators continue to be very negative. The small short-lived Easter rally looks like being the “dead cat bounce” as part of an overall correction

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Iron fist

The future of Australia’s coal exports look pretty assured. The International Energy Agency is forecasting that the growth between now and 2035 in China’s energy production will equal America’s, Europe’s and Japan’s current energy usage . Despite China’s falling carbon intensity, much of the expansion this will still come from coal. As I noted in

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Westpac “boring”

WBC released its 2011 Interim Results today. Below is a brief summary of the key figures along with select graphs taken from the broker presentation. Profit Reported Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) was up 14% to $3.961 billion with growth in cash earnings of 8% with all divisions (incl. NZ) experiencing growth. Similarly to ANZ,

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Trading Day

The S&P/ASX 200 is down over 1%, or 51 points at 4773 at 1pm AEST, below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are very negative as this broad selloff continues to hit all sectors. Three consecutive closes below the 15 day moving average are indicative of a correction pattern, but medium term

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ANZ half-year update

ANZ released its first-half update today.  Below is a brief summary of some of the key figures along with graphs taken from the presentation. Profit Up 23% compared to 1HY10 results, however revenue is down whilst expenses are up.  It seems a 40% reduction in provisions for the same period has contributed the lions share

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Bull and bear

One of the more entertaining aspects of market commentary is how superficially plausible diametrically opposite views often can be. Being a bear by temperament, I am inclined to think the market is looking very vulnerable, especially industrials. The impact of the high $A has to have some negative effect on the the non-mining industry base,

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Trading Day

Midday Summary The market is continuing a broad selloff, as the major constituents across all sectors are down after midday. The ASX200 is down almost 0.75% and is teetering below support at 4800 points. Momentum and other technical indicators are negative but not conclusive of a broad correction as this is likely to be a

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Desperately seeking growth stocks

The stock market is developing a bearish character. The impact of the high Australian dollar is being felt on earnings prospects and the weakening housing market is entrenching the two speed economy. Defensive strategies are being dusted off. But given that the options are not especially attractive elsewhere, one possible defensive strategy is to do

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Australian Share Market Weekly Wrap

Summary The S&P/ASX200 finished the week 90 points lower, or 1.83 per cent to 4,823 points on Friday. After a sideways move around the 4875 point level, the market experienced a broad sell off on Friday. The market is now back to its pre-Japan/MENA correction pause level, with support at 4800 points. Curiously, the correlation

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Trading Day 29th April

Midday Summary The market opened down sharply this morning, but on a positive lead from Wall Street, which is curious. Support at 4875 points is currently broken, with the 63 day moving average the next level of support (4800 points). Momentum is now negative but not conclusive – I would consider this part of another

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Profiting from a property slump

In yesterday’s article I looked at what a housing correction may do to the Australian share market – both from a macro economic point of view as well as the company level.  We discussed which stocks would be exposed and some that may not.  So now let’s see what opportunities a correction may present the

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Trading Day 28th April

Yesterday’s inflation figures weighed heavily on the market as it dropped almost 1%, but found support at the pre-Easter opening level (4870). Overnight, news from The Bernank that everything is fine, but its not, so we will continue to stimulate, rallied all risk markets (except silver), and the Aussie market has opened up on digestion

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Dollar downgrades

The impact of the high Australian dollar is becoming a feature in broker forecasts and broker sentiment. Southern Cross, having blamed the Federal government for all Australia’s problems, now seems to believe that some of it is due to the high currency. Perhaps they have woken to the joys of reading MacroBusiness. A Southern Cross report today