Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stocks were all over the place today, initially starting out rough with gap downs across the region before most recovered in late trading on optimism that Wall Street will pull the rest of the risk edifice along. Gold nudged higher for a new daily high towards $1750USD per ounce while the Aussie dollar was largely unchanged.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is going the opposite direction, falling 0.5% to 2882 points, with the Hang Seng Index down in sympathy if not magnitude, falling 0.1% to be at 24361 points, unable to re-engage on its previous breakout:

Japanese share markets were able to advance again, having broken free at the start of the week with the Nikkei 225 lifting 0.7% to 20595 points, while the USDJPY pair was relatively steady again,only slightly off its recent session highs on the four hourly chart but still ready to tackle last weeks high closer to 108:

 

The ASX200 was able to recover from a gap down of nearly 1% to finish over 0.2% higher at 5573 points, while the Aussie dollar is stuck here at the mid 65’s, unable to gain some traction as it continues to match the previous week high going into the London open:

Eurostoxx futures are down 0.5% or so, taking the Chinese lead with US stocks looking to stumble on the open as well with the S&P500 still unable to break above its weekly resistance level at 2960 points, which is required before everyone falls in and make’s a run for it up to 3000:

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Comments

  1. btw.. I am trying to buy small metal detector for targeting small <1gr nuggets/specs. I used to have really good one many years ago but they are too expensive and unless in WA it's too hard to get your money back. Even in WA it's too hard. But a good detector that can detect small stuff at surface or near surface might be fun. Powerful detectors miss this stuff.. except for one model.

  2. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Got a sense the federal government has given up on an R=1 strategy (if they ever had a strategy), and is about to let it rip.

    Foreign students and migration to the moon.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Agree. They seem much more interested in getting everything ‘snapped back’ to the (old) normal ASAP – and certainly before Sept. It’s a hell of a gamble if you ask me.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        +1 Most Strayans can’t cope with social distancing because Straya’s different. Also, for SFM, letting it rip will see the survival of the fittest.

        • Well not really as plenty of 20-50 somethings have died or have morbidities who knows how long will last

          This notion people just recover is just silly

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            Absolutely agree with that.

            Did you see the segment on 7.30 last night about the three young women and the older professor all still suffering effects from the virus, after weeks/months of contracting it and likely to do so UFN?

            I try to draw attention to the insidiousness of the virus, to my “kids” (36 and 32) but I think they are a bit dismissive, notwithstanding that I am high risk if I contract the virus.

          • Let’s see how it plays out eh fascist, my money is on Covid seriously fking people up for years

    • Right or wrong if Scotty had his way we’d probably be like the UK or US right now. Money uber alles.
      Has $someone$ got Gladys singing a new tune too?

      • Pauly 📡MEMBER

        Check for any recent property transfers into her or families name. Did she get a new leased car from some shady corporate entity?

      • Absolutely Scummo white anted and resisted every move that helped bring COVID under control.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          Goes against the happy-clappy creed to have any sympathy for the unfortunate?

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            When he and the state leaders were discussing the situation he refused to have any of the scientists in the room. He had his plan see, going to the footy and all that. The scientists had to meet in the next room. The nerdy ones kept sending Scummo notes that said this is bad but he wouldn’t have a bar of it. Reported in a few different places that he lost his rag and was screaming at everyone because the scientific types said yeah nah.

            That was the day the state leaders went their own way.

            It’s not about empathy for the unfortunate. We know he doesn’t have that. This is about his religious distaste for science.

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            @MiningBogan
            And thank goodness for the state/territory leaders to try and control a RWNJ happy clappy?

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Yes happy, but also why each week Scummo sends out a different attack dog to attack Chairman Dan. Andr3ws believed in science before he believed in Scummo and his Dog.

            Heresy.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Not a new thing, just ask Galileo, but hard to understand when he’s got a supercomputer in his pocket that’s only works thanks to 500 years of the scientific method.

    • drsmithyMEMBER

      Got a sense the federal government has given up on an R=1 strategy (if they ever had a strategy), and is about to let it rip.

      Maybe too many wealthy globetrotters are getting too close to having stayed in the country long enough to be considered a tax resident ?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Oh here we go again with the s0ft c0ck comments from the fearful. Meanwhile, our governments have done an amazing job in the face of the chicken sh1ts that wanted total fear instilled. Good on them for finally realising we can live a bit looser after all.

  3. UPDATE … NEW ZEALAND ECONOMIC SLUMP ACCELERATES …

    Coronavirus: Fletcher Building job cuts paint grim picture of economy, analyst says … Anuja Nadkarni … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121555737/coronavirus-fletcher-building-job-cuts-paint-grim-picture-of-economy-analyst-says

    Fletcher Building’s plans paint a dark picture of the future of New Zealand’s economy, an investment analyst says.

    Fletcher Building has proposed to cull 1000 jobs in New Zealand and 500 in Australia, which equates to about 10 per cent of its workforce.

    Forsyth Barr’s David Price said considering Fletcher Building’s balance sheet was in good shape, its plans raised concerns about the country’s recovery from Covid-19. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    ANZ report affirms forecast of 10% to 15% fall in house prices this year but warns there’s a risk they could fall by more, says commercial property market likely to be even more badly affected … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/105119/anz-report-affirms-forecast-10-15-fall-house-prices-year-warns-theres-risk-they

    ANZ is sticking with its forecast that house prices will fall 10% to 15% this year, but says there is a risk they could fall by more.

    In its latest NZ Property Focus report, ANZ’s economists confirmed their earlier forecast that house prices would likely fall by 10% to 15% this year, compared to an 8% to 10% fall in GDP.

    “On balance, we see downside risk to our forecast,” the report said. … read more via hyperlink above …

  4. Ref: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/05/links-20-may-2020/

    I made a few responses to comments about MMT which were factual misrepresentations at best or Agnotology with intent.

    I would only add that MMT has no ideological baggage, yet as a post Keynesian I do have views on its administration and how that saves Capitalism from blowing up again like in the GD – especially with environmental head winds.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      Thornton does make some good points imo.
      eg. “Furthermore, the Fed was created to establish an “elastic” supply of currency”.
      eg. people won’t hold on to more money unless you also lower its price (interest rate) to increase the qty demanded. Increase stock above qty demanded without reducing the price and the money goes straight back to the CB via excess deposits (reserves) and loan repayments through the commercial banks as he says.
      So saying governments can choose to fund spending with money rather than bonds (say at full employment with a positive interest rate) assumes the money market rate and bond rate can be set at zero at all times because demand is interest inelastic.
      Is that realistic? Do lower interest rates have no or unknown effect on housing and net exports and consumption?

  5. Looks like we are minutes away from hitting the 5,000,000 positive cases milestone.

        • Er, funny time to ask, but what was the name of that plant incubator thing you are using.
          It is so cold in Victoria at the moment, I’m not sure stuff would want to come up outside.

        • I have got parsley through the lawn, growing round the avos and custard apples . Want some seeds ? Subtropics but

          • Seed will still work. I buy from Green Harvest (Qld) all the time. Way more reliable then the guy 20ks down the road in Taree. Sad, I’d really prefer to shop local…

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Thanks mate I might take you up on it. Were these the ones self sown? That your missus bought?

    • Mid 80’s Cross took a sleazier tone. An ambitious new breed started getting thicker & the Jacks regime was beginning to decline. All in the timing for the rise of the ‘King of the Cross’ – But once you’re there there’s only one way to go…. Isn’t there?

    • The WHO or the UN should never be the play thing of any one country … FFS remember back in Bush Jr days and the U.S. failing to pay its dues …. argument was it was not getting its bang for buck …. shezzzz

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    The “For Lease” signs along the pacific highway
    are multiplying . Started in Chatswood now stretching
    up through Gordon and Pymble to Hornsby .
    Nice to see all the new apartment blocks on the highway with their street level shops ( probably planned as noodle bars ) are forlornly empty with hopeful for lease signs ……we desperately need immigration …
    the slumification needs to continue

  7. Lots of talk of Silver going on now. Might be its time to shine.
    Whats everyone’s pick for a Silver play out there besides the Silver ETF?

    • FYI, I’m looking at South32 as a silver play. Might be a good time to pick it up cheap. open to opinions

      • A real [tm] bootstrapper would work in the mine on pro rata as a legacy percentage and earn their share …. not this east indies corp style of metal magic exchange speculation …. just saying …

      • Ukraine fnMEMBER

        All the other rubbish in South32 could bring it down though . If I remember correctly BHP spun off some of their lessor assets into this entity.

      • DominicMEMBER

        I suspect South is too exposed to base metals to be that effective as a Silver play – you’re better off looking to the US for listed pure silver plays (there’s only a handful).

        That said, if you’re patient, commodities should be a great investment in the coming years — I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom yet, is all.

  8. back from my walk and another house with huge pile of rubbish at the front.

    question: was today any special day in terms of shorts, options or some other event that could have triggered gold miners to fall in the morning trading and only starting to rally from around 11ish.
    I could not see what caused it made me really mad as it messed up my strategy.

  9. 6 Eden Valley Road, Warranwood, Vic 3134 https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-warranwood-133371682

    I walked the dog past this place this afternoon and noticed quite a lot of people inspecting it. I was surprised as it’s been very quiet during lockdown. It’s like everything is back to normal. Real Estate agent has a fancy V12 Merc too. Why those guys are not bleeding yet I don’t know? Might be time to become an agent myself. That’s when it will all fall apart, after my long 6 month short course I’ll get a job then it will really go to shyte lol.

  10. CanuckDownUnder

    If the school system is anything to go by Gladys is fully prepared to let it rip. Last week students went one day/week, classes were cut to half normal size so 15 to a room so they could social distance.

    It was supposed to be a gradual return, now all of a sudden it’s all systems go. Daughter had her day at school yesterday, found out that in preparation for next week it was back to normal class sizes. Official memo from the school today, no social distancing will be practised.

    Apparently good hygiene practices will be in place but that means nothing. Before the schools were closed our kids weren’t told anything about washing hands during the day, not even at lunch or fruit break. Luckily kids can’t carry the virus or we’d all be in trouble!

  11. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    So the Antiaustralian Broadcasting Corporation decided the only time they would put the Enquiry on top position on their website was in a negative light https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-20/wha-passes-coronavirus-investigation-australia-what-cost/12265896

    Yes this country is fcked, prepare to leave or make it possible for your kids to do so at least. Something weird has happened where the cultural cringe has become so malignant ‘woke’ wtf ever that means, people would prefer to be slaves … truly insane

  12. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Get on board this guys. We need a nationalised development/investment bank to fund Australian innovation and infrastructure.
    https://youtu.be/waa2DKOVjPs
    It’s the first step of recovering from the rubble of a failed gov/bank Ponzi system in Australia. It’s going to parliament in 4 weeks. We can’t leave our economy in the hands of private banks who only believe in self serving profit.
    Seriously, have a look. It makes sense.