Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar poised for higher as Trump destroys America

Selling is the order of the day here in Asia with all stock markets lower by 1% or more in response to the selloff on Wall Street overnight, as traders weigh up more negativity around the “V” shaped recovery post-coronavirus. The USD is gaining against everything by safe haven Yen, with the Aussie dollar dropping on the release of the latest unemployment figures,  while gold remains steady above the $1700USD per ounce level.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is down by nearly 1% going into the close, currently at 2872 points, while the Hang Seng Index is down more than 1.4% , currently at 23851 points, holding just above the recent daily lows as resistance proves too strong overhead:

Japanese share markets were again the worst performers with the Nikkei 225 closing 1.7% lower to 19910 points, finally cracking below key support at 20,000 while the reversal in USDJPY pair continued, falling below the 107 handle and barreling in on key support from last week:

The ASX200 fell over 1% at the open and this time stayed there, with a late session selloff seeing it close 1.7% lower at 5328 points, while the Aussie dollar had reacted relatively well to the relatively benign unemployment headline print, falling down to the 64 handle to make a new intraweek low:

Eurostoxx futures are down over 1% going into the London open while S&P futures are off by 0.4% or so, indicating more selling likely tonight with the four hourly chart showing key support from the previous week low at just below 2800 ready to fold:

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Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Gone Baby, Thanks for the concern, booked in for next Thurs. Heavy jobs finished, just large 2 RA drilling machines at Ingleburn Mon. Been using all my cranes etc for even medium lifts.

      • Don’t mention it, when I was a student I worked in steel fabrication and welding and know how hard it is.
        Just keep us posted about the positive development of you regaining your arm strength and wish you very speedy recovery and good rehab!
        Glad you replied with update😄I annoyed Harry yesterday asking about you

  1. ಠ_ಠMEMBER

    Landlord doesn’t want to decrease rent. We want to stay but we don’t want to pay (what is now)over market rate for the area. Up for renewal in just over a month. Frustrating situation.

      • ಠ_ಠMEMBER

        Like the place too much. I’ve been playing the “look at these other properties nearby that are less $$$” card but he won’t budge.

        • DingwallMEMBER

          Yeah this is where I usually make up my mind and leave…. they need to learn that the rent doesn’t always go up and a good tenant in the hand is worth a lot. He can then think about things when he keeps the rent the same, gets no bites for 4 weeks while he gets cranky … then accepts a bid below yours with a real sh!tty tenant …… LOL

          • China PlateMEMBER

            May not worry the L lord as any loss of rent may be used to increase their loss or decrease their profit for tax purposes

        • You’ve got nothing to negotiate with if you’re not prepared to walk away. What’s in it for the LL?

        • Sometimes a man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.

          Or woman, if you’re a woman.

          • Banana ManMEMBER

            This is the age of man, woman, and whatever title the LGBTQI crowd are running with…plus the others that I may have left out. (No offense others)

          • sometimes what a mans gotta do is a woman.
            and there’s nothing wrong with that.

        • Ian ArunMEMBER

          U have to be ready to move out i think …When i did the same few years ago in Perth ; property sat empty for few months and at the end LL had to accept 50$ less than what i was offering …some people only learn the hard way unfortunately.

          • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

            Yes I did the same. Property sat empty for 6 months before finally they got a short 3 month rental for $100 per week less than what I offered. Landlord stupidity!

          • The UsurperMEMBER

            I’ll be moving when my lease runs out end of July. Paying $435/week for a 2 bedroom unit, seeing townhouses/houses for $350-$400 same suburb. No brainer. Plus the houses are better overall.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Costs you approx 2 grand to move? That’s movers, boxes plus aggravation?

      So if you can get better than 40 bucks a week cheaper I think it’s worth it.

    • Dear Mr Landlord, this is my offer today and this is my offer one month from now.

      • I’d play that.. LL already called his/her bluff so make firm offers and let LL think about. In the meantime start negotiating rent for new property.. preferably as close to to current property as possible in hope to see the LL in the future and rub bit of salt..

    • [email protected] of the fittest taken to the extrema … I’m just a binary unit of account in a public choice [tm] market based framework seeking to find market share with investor sediment or demand for traction. Fk’n rabid libertarians.

  2. I reckon the dip-buying crowd from yesterday arvo are in the hurt locker.

    It’s not certain, but the markets may be waking up to reality.

        • Ukraine fnMEMBER

          I said that it is basically impossible to start making things in Aus without braking up the gas cartel and gas reservation .

          Cheap gas and cheap power from gas is the first bit of foundation that needs to be laid.

    • yeborskyMEMBER

      She’s spot on. Every fair dinkum Aussie should endorse what she says and vote accordingly. But we still need many more candidates of all persuasions who will take such ideals to the ballot box and stand by them later. Pipe dream?

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        I reckon she has integrity and that shines through.
        Ricky Muir was also of her vintage (random independent who got in during the same election) and he was good too – I miss him in particular – he also had integrity.

    • What the hell, was that document created by a MBer and sent to her, how has it gone this long without anyone speaking up and then out of nowhere they just tackle almost all of the problems in one go.

      • They know, when they’ve got both eyes open – After “retirement”. They’re just not independent & have to tow their chosen Mafia’s party line.

        Comes a Time! Hopefully this Catalyst isn’t wasted & Indies who can speak their mind like Lambie can make a difference, who knows when the next one will come.

      • As far as honesty goes, Lambie’s fvcken light years ahead of the Australia’s most despicable 227 members of parliament but who’s also been known to do the odd horse trading while hiding behind confidentiality clauses.

    • working class hamMEMBER

      Had the the feeling she was repressing some serious anger.
      Refreshing to see.

    • Yep, nothing but the truth.
      She just needed to add … reduce the net immigration program to maximum 50,000 annually.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Good on her. If we can’t make stuff, we’re mutton parading as Lamb(ie).

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Just love her work. Good onya Jacqui, go tell Twiggy and Stokes what for!!!

    • Notice that Lambie kicks up. She doesn’t take aswioe at the students, she goes for the universities. She is concerned about the youth of Australia missing out so she aims her anger at policy, not those that come come in to work on sites instead of apprentices. She doesn’t deliver her speech for maximum rhetorical effect. She rushes through it, tripping over words. She doesn’t care if she isn’t on the front page the next day, she does care that these issues aren’t. Compare that to PH, big Clive, ML, or even Dutto. They are inluy in it for them and will throw anyone who can’t fight back to the masses if it furthers their career or gets them attention.

    • SweeperMEMBER

      I copped worse.. merely for saying that the do nothing / money at interest class should be asked to pay interest on their “saving” – read: compensate society for wrecking the economy.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        While simultaneously allowing them to print as much as necessary to wreck the economy. Genius.

          • All money is proceeded by human contracts before any nation city state “decreed” it should be attached to some commodity it could controlled. That a religious talisman was chosen back in the day to force the chattel to be beguiled by its religious iconography and notions of rarity in burnishing its value just so the unwashed would accept it is a long and sordid tale – a commodity does not enhance the attributes of law.

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Corruption doesn’t enhance the product of corruptly administered laws…

          • Kinda look forward to the days when finally these dialectic discussions will inevitably degenerate into the now classic “well, yo’ mamma…”

          • Yo’ Momma so broke that when I saw her kicking a can down the street and I asked what she was doing she said “Quantative easing.”

            Would also work for “Yo’ Momma so dumb…”. The punchline is originally “…moving house”.

            …so fat …puts in a belt with a boomerang was always my favourite.

    • They don’t have “equity maate” over there do they?
      Otherwise he’ll be all over it like a fat kid with
      hot chocolate cupcakes

  3. Banana ManMEMBER

    covid app….
    In a parliamentary hearing last week, the Digital Transformation Agency acknowledged that on iPhones the app “progressively deteriorates and the quality of the connection is not as good as you get to a point where the phone is locked and the app is running in the background”.

    f yes, can I also pay a monthly subscription with an exit fee?

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      To translate: iOS does not allow third party apps to log Bluetooth beacons when ‘running’ in the background, by design. It hasn’t been possible for years.
      Technically, the Covid app cannot work as advertised on iPhones. The only way to do it is via Apple’s yet to be released Covid API. It keeps your data private and out of the Government’s hands, in a clever and secure way.
      Pure farce. Think Utopia.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Can’t Rob Sitch and co do us, the great unwashed, a favour and get on the case and just do a one-off episode on the ScoVID-19 app? I can see Lehmo from PM&C, defending the indefensible.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Marise Payne also said yesterday that the app has nothing whatsoever to do with easing restrictions. She also added that wouldn’t change even if it started working, those decisions are up to the AHPPC. I’m sure Scummo said the opposite many many times.

  4. going for my walk. By them time I am back I want to see futures at -500 and gold at $1740usd. fckn.

    • I went for a jog, too damn cold to walk the dog. So I ran with him instead. Freezing out.

      • I never keep an eye on expiry dates for particular options. How would that impact the market?
        I wouldn’t think too many people will wait until last day to exercise their options.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      It’s all the Democrats’ fault – whoops, the ALP’s fault? Just ask SFM?

      • Speaking of which … Totes has gone very quiet all of a sudden … could be delayed shock … or maybe he was worried he was starting to get a tad repetitive.

        • I’ve noticed totes go absent a few times earlier in the year as well, pretty sure it’s just work/life. Usually returns with some not so bad/not so repetitive contributions and then slowly declines into cut and paste “all Labor fault” stuff.

  5. Oh great! Powderfinger’s back! … for just one concert! … must’ve ran out off money!

    • Not my kind of scene… oh yeah..

      PS: I’m a fan of theirs, I watched Two Hands movie again recently. I love it. Poor Heath.
      PPS: He’s not taking my car, just had the gearbox done!

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Saw them early on maybe ’95-6 and quite liked them. Lots of energy. Followed them until I toddled off overseas for a while, came back and realised they had discovered the power of bland. It was quite profitable for them too. Reckon “Vulture Street” was them realising that bland had consumed them and were trying to break out but alas, it was not to be.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Fvck Bernard gives me the sh!ts, missus was at UQ when they were taking off. She hates them worse than the floyd.

            One song I like, Love on Your Breath. It is much simpler in chords, so I think a better song than then they were trying to be smart.

            Fun fact. The verse is the same chords as Swaylor Tift Shake it Off!

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJaw3M1k6TM

      • Two Hands is the rawest, most real account of the Cross of the 80’s imo. Underbelly had it’s own story but they didn’t need to make it glamorous & edgy – it wasn’t like that.

    • One of the most dangerous mosh pits I’ve ever been in was Powderfinger at Brisbane Riverstage circa ’03-’04. So many drunken yobs with absolutely no pit etiquette, was atrocious. I mostly went for John Butler Trio as support act, this was my LSD phase lol.

  6. Banana ManMEMBER

    Does it not seem interesting that the US CARES Act was legislated on Jan 24, ie 2 days after case number one in Wuhan Jan 22? (2 trillion of govt spending!)

    The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (H.R. 748),[1] also known as the CARES Act,[2] is a law meant to address the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. In its original form, it was introduced in the United States Congress as H.R. 748 (Middle Class Health Benefits Tax Repeal Act of 2019) by Joe Courtney (D-CT) on January 24, 2019[a] although the bill was amended before it was passed.

    The original bill proposal included $500 billion in direct payments to Americans, $208 billion in loans to major industry, and $300 billion in Small Business Administration loans.[3][4] As a result of bipartisan negotiations, the bill grew to $2 trillion in the version unanimously passed by the Senate on March 25, 2020.[5][6] The next day, it was passed in the House via voice vote and signed into law by President of the United States Donald Trump on March 27.

  7. If you’re the sort of weird beard like me that cares about our heritage and the achievements of prior generations in building and shaping this country and hate seeing history destroyed… then this may appeal to you..
    https://modernistaustralia.com/2020/03/13/breedon-house-34-were-st-brighton-vic/

    Sadly this beautiful home was bulldozed…
    and a follow up article on the topic.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/national-trust-slams-bayside-council-s-deplorable-action-heritage-sites-20200513-p54sf2.html

    But worth a listen at 1hour 11 mins here.
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/12222032

    But I’m livid that it was demolished..

  8. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The Great Corona Contraction.

    Or Corona Contraction.

    Or just, the Contraction…

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Who needs enemies when you’ve got “friends” like Jerome Powell and Dr Fauci?

  9. DXY accelerating as a write, on the back of a strong uptrend from early April…

    Does it signal a run to the USD again, and another stock rout?

    Gold is holding up well..but can it hold below $1,730?

    Genuine queries.

    • At least you’re not in your mum’s basement like half the MB crew 😉 and you still have a job, unlike half of Australia!

      • The obvious question is what are 27 shut-ins doing in Divya’s mum’s basement.

      • Yeah thought about that before i said it. But figured i might be out of a job too at some point too. Might as well get a whinge in. I dont hold high hopes for mine. Hopefully hubby in govt construction is a bit safer.

      • Yeah thought about that before i said it. But figured i might be out of a job too at some point too. Might as well get a whinge in.

        • Hope you get to keep it at least as long as you want it.

          My job is fine, it’s the home schooling that is killing me! Although this last week has been better, focusing more on enjoying it and less on the fact that the five year old is forgetting the alphabet faster than I can teach it…!

    • yeah the herd immunity was always a nonsense. Just had to see what happened in Wuhan, where the virus originated to know that.
      aside, I thought France had already surrendered to the virus?

    • The reality is we are stuck with this situation for years to come. The lives we had 4 months ago are over forever. It’s 10 year minimum of Netflix and getting fat on Uber Eats.

  10. Just saw a calculation that with the public service, job seeker and job keeper combined, nearly two thirds of the Australian workforce are being paid by the gummint one way or another.

    It was a disheartening thing to read.

    • That’s nonsense!!

      Australian politicians are very inexpensive and represent great value. The CCP will never stop buying the new ones as they come onto the market at each election.

  11. I’ve just had a brilliant thought, after several shots of Bundy.

    The First Immigrant Home Buyer Scheme. The short story is that the gummint pays each recent immigrant 100% of the cost of a new house, wherever they want, then ramps up immigration.

    House prices will skyrocket, people will come here in droves so house prices will skyrocket etc. Every Australian, even new ones, will be incredibly wealthy due to their massive house price and we’ll all live happily ever after. It’s sort of like a perpetual motion machine that solves all of our economic problems in one swell foop, only better.

    • once the $3tn are close to being printed it will top $1760. If US Chyna trade war restarts and US does go ahead and refuse to pay Chinese held USTs then gold will top ~$1850 and will keep marching upwards as many countries will simply go through initial pain will will stop accepting USDs when transacting and will stop buying USTs.

      • Other countries still have lines of credit that presumably will be honoured, it may just be a ruse to slap China to it’s senses, but they’re beyond understanding anything outside of their own faltering agenda.

        Offering RMB to BHP is a bit different & might be a sign as some have said. An aside – If BHP actually paid tax would our government accept RMB?

        It’s on it’s way Burbs!

        • this is beyond lines of credit. Many countries will see US as bully (and really US is a big bully) that if they can’t get something their way they will just refuse to pay their debt to that country. Many countries hold USTs. No one will be buying US debt moving forward.
          This is really big from Geopolitics point of view. Putin will never need viagra if this happens – US to refuse to pay China for their USTs.