Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A good start to the week here in Asia with most stock markets rising in unison in response to the positive swing on the disastrous US unemployment print on Friday night. The USD is gaining strength later in the session, particularly against Yen while gold holds on above the $1700USD per ounce level.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is the odd one out, down nearly 0.3% to 2889 points, while the Hang Seng Index is up nearly 1.5% to 24586 points, continuing to bounce off the recent daily lows at 23400 points and setting up for another breakout:

Japanese share markets have had a solid start to the week with the Nikkei 225 lifting 1% higher to 20390 points, almost breaking its bear market rally high. Meanwhile currency traders have this time been caught in a USD strong move as the USDJPY pair zooms up to the 107 handle:

The ASX200 had a solid session although started off slow to finish 1.3% higher to 5461 points, while the Aussie dollar has almost matched its April high at the mid 65’s against USD:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up more than 0.6% going into the London open with the latter market ready again to tackle the previous highs near the 2960 point level, as momentum remains well overbought from Friday’s session:

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Comments

  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Gone Baby, that describe the tendon, completely torn off the bone. Gotta get the jobs finished before the 4mth curfew.

  2. Hi Folks,
    Just wondering if anyone here can give me feedback on Nucleus Wealth? Have you invested your Super through them and what is your feedback? I’m currently with Colonial State (CommBank) which was due to my previous employer default fund, but looking to move away from them if I think Nucleus or another fund is a better option and reasonable fees.

    I’ve been reviewing Colonial Super performance and I had it set up in a high growth fund, turns out they have lost about $22k in Super since the big rout of Covid-19, now that can happen with any fund, but looking up reviews online I’m seeing a lot of angry Colonial Fund reviews and also articles that say they charge excessive fees.
    https://www.choice.com.au/money/financial-planning-and-investing/superannuation/articles/superannuation-funds-performance-and-fees-191115

    So I’m looking for advice on where Nucleus stands for you and if you think they operate using reasonable fees.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Gav,
      I’m with them not super but the same.They we
      re rocketing better than anywhere else, then fell back but still ahead so all’s good.

      • Thanks, just been reviewing my Super fees and it seems that my previous employer may have managed to negotiate very modest fees from Colonial (since they had a lot of employees it was probably a lucrative account for them) and as a result it seems my fees may not that high. Not sure what happens going forward though, now I’ve left that employer and if I’ll continue to get a good rate or not.

        1 positive of Nucleus appears that they may be doing something in the realm of UK pensions integration which means the time I worked in Ireland and paid into a pension fund over there may enable me to get that money back here and into a Super fund here. Problem with the Irish Government is that they are strict with regards to early withdrawal of money, since they wish to tax it at the full earned amount in that situation and since we allow early withdrawal here Irish Government has concerns that money would be pillaged early to avoid tax.

        UK -> Australia has a different reciprocal arrangement and is easier to move retirement funds between the 2 countries.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Don’t follow it closely but from memory it was roaring up at 17% but then went backwards. If I get time will anualize for you.

    • Hi Gav – not advice and these are generalisations but here’s my 2c…… “for profit” funds are ok value if you go through a Group (via your employer) plan. As soon as you leave the employer the same funds charge 2 or 3 times the fee. They would argue the employer is buying in bulk and getting a discount but the reason doesn’t matter – as soon as you leave this is where you get gouged. Same if you just go direct or via an adviser – you will pay “retail”.

      An Industry fund is generally cheaper but you want to read the Insurance cover terms because often they don’t cover much. Also, as the current environment has shown their balanced funds aren’t exactly balanced. In saying that overall IMO they offer better value if you care to understand where you are investing so you consciously choose your underlying options.

      I have some non super money with Nucleus and I rate it. It does what it says on the tin and the fees are reasonable and transparent.

      Disclosure – I work for a Retail Fund and my super is with them in a Group scheme. Historically when friends have asked I have informed (not advised) them to go to large Industry Funds noting the points above. I have not advised any non Group folk to consider retail/for profit funds.

      I would happily recommend they check out Nucleus now that I have experienced them.

      Hope that helps as an opinion.

        • Ian ArunMEMBER

          Gav,
          Have recently signed up with nucleus fund and in the process of transferring funds from my rest account. Rest or any other industry super fund is alright as long as u know which option you invested in and assosiated risks rather than using the default option. Nucleus looks good on paper and my money transfer experience wasnt great. Communications was below average once the tasks were handed over to people who does admin tasks. Hopefully perfromance and transperancy would make up for the average admin service…thats my experience with Nucleue so far. Found insurance was bit expensive with Nucleus wealth since its not brought in group so i have left insurance with Rest to try out Nucleus for 3 -5 years and then review. I am very thankful to this site for calling chinese virus early around Jan and i went all in cash from international shares which saved me 20% capital.

    • I have investments with Nucleus (no super though). It has been working well for me. It’s not the returns I’m looking for but how much they beat the benchmark by and particularly their positioning in crisis like these. They were very proactive at identifying risk and mitigating it. I would recommend them.

  3. the disconnect
    is main street going to join the party?
    or
    will wall street connect with main street
    or
    will the two re,main in different universes

    • If main street joins the party there will be hyperinflation and degeneracy. If only Wall Street is invited to the party the filthy rich will get filthier and richer but there will be deflation. Those in power prefer the latter option which down the road will lead to …..?

  4. CCP Pure Evil

    Many of you will waste your lives trying to catch a falling knife in the market.

    Got a 30% discount in March and didn’t know what to do with it.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Yeh was a noice turnaround. I’m into the BBOZ today for it to go the other way. Weeeeeeeee

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Geez
      Would have been nice if you lit the way back in march
      Pure evil to tell us now

  5. migtronixMEMBER

    “. Currently seven people are in hospital, including five patients in intensive care.”

    They’re surviving ICU.

    • I want to know why people are not dying at the same rate here? Is it due to better health overall? Is it because less poverty = less health complications and less existing issues? Do we have a weaker strain of it here? It seems the Ruby Princess was a super spreader device of the most deadly type of Corona Virus? Do we understand why “Australia really is different” yet?

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Do we need to before we stop the hysterics? I feel like if we keep the border closed we’ll be fine.

      • We aren’t different. Most of the countries with low case numbers have low fatality rates.
        My suspicion is that when case numbers take off you get a high number of fatal cases among the elderly which skew the results.
        The fatality rate over 80 is around 15%. It is negligible amongst the under 50s.
        To put it crudely, if you had 200 under 50s infected you might have 1 death while in the over 80s it might be 30. You would then have a mortality rate around 7%.
        If the virus is loose in a big way then inevitably it will be knocking off the elderly in large numbers. If you keep it away from the elderly, the numbers will look relatively alot better.

        • Yeah I agree and then there is the shortage of ventilators that come with an overwhelmed healthcare system. So that’s gotta be a factor also.

          • Mortality of ventilated patients is 90%

            Some suggestion that mechanical ventilation actually makes their condition worse

        • migtronixMEMBER

          “To put it crudely, if you had 200 under 50s infected you might have 1 death while in the over 80s it might be 30. You would then have a mortality rate around 7%.
          If the virus is loose in a big way then inevitably it will be knocking off the elderly in large numbers. If you keep it away from the elderly, the numbers will look relatively alot better”

          If… If… If…

          Real expert talking.

        • In that case Russia should have been reporting lot more deaths. Please don’t say we can’ trust Russian data but can trust US data. I am trying to have serious convo after 4 glasses of red.

        • I’ve been following the numbers in detail from very early on.

          It was readily apparent to me that once a nation hit a certain-ish number of cases in the exponential growth phase, then their death numbers then also rocketed…but it wasn’t before then.

          I interpreted this as regional/area hospitals getting overwhelmed, where workers became unable to provide appropriate care to the sick.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It’s just starting to go exponential in India. The hospitals in Mumbai are almost full.
        Density and general health seem to be a big factor.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Yep. The denser the Politicians running the joint, the higher that joint’s fatality rate. 😷

      • Gav, from what I heard we use better protocols and don’t follow what China (used to), US, Italy and few others do. Less usage of ventilators and few other steps. Someone that works in a hospital (not a Dr but talks to lot of Drs as part of her job) told me this.

        • Most of those with COVID in Australia caught it from overseas trips of contact with recent travellers – these people are predominantly healthy middle aged. There has been little community spread due to lockdown and seasonal factors. The high mortality rates in Europe are the result of seasonal factors and community spread so the virus can get into vulnerable immobile populations such as the elderly >80y and nursing home residents.

          • at the hospital where our friend works they had few >70s and they all or most survived. just be aware this is what I was told but I have no reason not to believe her.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        A year or two down the track when this is all properly analysed it’ll be interesting to see if there were any genetic predispositions involved that affected the fatality rates.

        • I wouldn’t even know where to go to confirm if this is true. A Pom I know was staggered that 80+% of deaths in the motherland were coloured……? He reckons the living conditions for different races in UK are similar & so couldn’t figure out why unless the virus was exploiting some genetics?

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        If someone is going bankrupt over this, it’s not Sarah Hanson-Young. That line of argument is on flaky ground given David Leyonhjelm was sued over an interviews Sky News where he claimed Sarah Hanson-Young said something she did not say.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        That’s why it looks like there is an ulterior motive as he’s pretty much bankrupt anyway from the last effort

      • yeah, but he is still funny.. I see the funny side and would have said same.. I did offer more serious thought.. see below or above..

        still laughing..

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        Meh this is a practice drill and they were too close to where the missile was aimed for LOL 😂

        Actually shouldn’t laugh a life is a life but I’m surprised they admitted to it. I’m sure there is heaps the US and UK haven’t made public either

        • don’t even start me on UK mate. Joke is if UK launches a nuke from one of their subs chances are that nuke will hit Oz or UK itself rather than to find Russia or China. Go and google this and you’ll get a shock.

          and you are right – life is life.

    • lol.. on serious note US will need to make lot bigger effort than they made when looting Iraq. When Iran shot down US’s drone few months back they demonstrated two things:
      1. Ability to shoot down advanced tech that was protected by another plane that was suppose to jam Iranian defenses.
      2. Possession of advanced tech that could differentiate between close targets with advanced tech. US was flying their plane full of people very close to the drone and if Iran would have hit it, it would have triggered hot war.
      Because of this US knows it will cost them lot more money and jar heads to invade.

      Also, when US killed the Iranian general they also agreed for Iran to hit back and it turned those hits did injured lot of people despite Americans had all the info (provided by Iran) where and what Iran will target. This has never happened before.
      Also, this revealed there is internal war being fought in US between war hawks and people that want peace. But even the peace faction would not have allowed for Iran to hit back if they knew they can just walk over Iran.
      That leaves psychopaths like Pompeo to talk sh1te and limits US to sanctions only. Otherwise there would have been blood long ago.

      Then

    • Futures are down as well. News of outbreaks in Germany, Japan and SK after lifting restrictions might be driving it.

  6. First thing … equities have zip rights aka your naked gambling.

    Second I’m calling it … jobkeeper is the LNP’s pink batts event.

    • For a high labour business in the right industry who can show a 31% downturn, profits are through the roof.
      Have a friend who is on cash basis and was able to show a downturn in March (Big payment came in early April), he is now making more money then ever with a lot of staffing costs covered.
      He called the ATO to check twice, all good you are eligible…

      • Lol all labour intensive industries will prosper 1+1=2 no Jimmy’s no back packers prices on all fresh labour intensive products will double in 12 months because our children won’t work

    • “… jobkeeper is the LNP’s pink batts event.”

      By a factor of about 30.

    • At all above …

      As soon as it was put out there everyone and their dog was looking to game it and even those that were more ethical were like if others are, quoting based on it, I have too or lose work or worse. Pink Batts was more a cowboy problem due to oversight, but this effects business and suppliers that have been in the game for sometime. For some reason 52 pickup pops into my head.

      I just laughed and said wait till everyone then tries to raise prices again post jobkeeper … lmmao

      • Mate are you sure you know what’s happing I don’t think you know how your food gets to you skip were early 80s America old boy no immos no backpackers double me up Tom sawyer

        • I used to build and service production facilities, along with civil and commercial work national and international. Part of my work was understanding multiple industries and their interconnections, including understanding the human aspect of government – private relations between them all. This also meant traveling to various industry shows like CES, SIAL, et al and your talking about back packers …

          I warned on this blog about JBS consolidation and others in Australia years ago, let alone PPP long term outcomes or people wobbling on about China buying stuff when it was sold donkey years ago to anglophone investors, and they were just selling it to the Chinese on the open market. Lets not forget how many RE developers are actually foreign owned – financed but use a licensed Australian as its figure head, that was going down before the GFC IMO.

    • 1) how many will it kill
      2) is it likely to have the same blowback as pinkbatts (certainly not with the current crop of underwhelming labor members )

    • “Second I’m calling it … jobkeeper is the LNP’s pink batts event.”

      true, but won’t matter. the media will never prosecute it and labor lacks the unprincipled ratbaggery of Abbott. it’s almost a shame that Latham went so far out of the stratosphere…a healthy dose of class-warfare economic-nationalism without the alt-right incellery would be a breath of fresh air.

  7. Jack Mundey…a true hero of the Australian people. Thanks for helping to preserve the areas I grew up in.