Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A somewhat mixed day here in Asia with Chinese shares pulling back on the brouhaha developing between The Middle Kingdom and the Flailing Empire as Trump again ramps up the rhetoric on trade and other measures. The USD is strengthening somewhat going into the European open while gold continues to advance after its breakout last night.

In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is putting in a scratch session and looks like closing the week out at 2867 points, while the Hang Seng Index is also struggling, down 0.2% to close out a forgetful week, currently at 23792 points, holding just above the recent daily lows as resistance proves too strong overhead:

Japanese share markets bounced back slightly after the reversal on Wall Street overnight with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% higher at 20037 points, getting back above key support at 20,000 again while the USDJPY pair fell back slightly, reverting to the 107 handle and unable to make a new intrasession high:

The ASX200 was the standout and lifted over 1.4%, putting a positive spin on the week’s trading, closing at 5404 points, while the Aussie dollar was flat and unable to gain any traction, exactly on the mid 64 level against USD going into the London open and looking very weak here:

Eurostoxx futures are up over 1% with S&P futures close behind as Wall Street looks set to close up the gap and retry to gain the momentum it lost midweek with the four hourly chart showing key support from the previous week low at just below 2800 that must hold here:

Have a good weekend and stay safe.

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Comments

  1. A for Arrow, B for Boom & bcnich , C for coming , D for Domenic, e?
    F? , G for Gone Baby, H for Harry, I for Ian, J for Jason, k for Kodiak, L
    for LSWCH, M for Mig, N? , O?, P for Peachy, Q?, R?, S for
    SnappedUpSavvy, T for The Traveling Wilbur , U? V?, W? , X?, Y?
    Z FOR Zaxxon

  2. So the NCM share price is probably going to stuff me. I put in for the max $30k worth of shares (at $25.60) as soon as it came out. But now with the share price above $30, it will certainly be scaled back and I only had 100 shares to start with. Hopefully they’ll allocate on a first come first served basis.

    • I talked to the folk at Perth Mint a week ago. The shortage is due to having not enough people to actually physically make the bars in moulds. There is not a shortage of gold, per se. If you are happy to purchase gold “unallocated” which means as part of their bulk gold holdings, not as an individual, poured, stamped bar, then there is supply. Also, buying “unallocated” you pay zero storage costs for PM to securely store it for you. You have to pay storage once it is in bar form

      • There is a reason why the allocated bars are sold out. How much of the unallocated gold is hypothecated?

        • I believe I can take their word for it, they are absolutely forbidden by charter from selling a single gram of gold that they do not physically hold. It exists in their vaults, just not as a bar with your name stamped on it, so to speak

      • john6007MEMBER

        Thanks for calling the mint, that is what I thought. WA Gold miners would be selling their dore bar ASAP at current prices.

      • Covid19MEMBER

        Unallocated is the unbacked paper derivatives stuff.
        You need the Pooled allocation which is physical.

    • Banana ManMEMBER

      I misplace my phone more than once a day. I’d be screwed if I held Phyz. PM Online is good for allocated an unallocated.

    • truthisfashionable

      3cyl engines seem to be having a resurgence.

      The Ford focus with the turbo triple, the Toyota Yaris GR and Corolla GR rumoured to use a turbo triple.

      I feel that 4cyl engines are still considered the ‘small’ size for most people and 3cyl is a novelty, for cars at least.

      • By what I can gather the triple is smoother & can put out the same torque/power band as a 4 for less weight, parts & thirst. In bikes they really bridge the different torque curves between a V twin & a flat 4 which makes them broad & useable.

    • How do you arrive at that, hes a founder of neoclassical.

      https://www.postkeynesian.net/post-keynesian-economics/

      https://www.economicsdiscussion.net/post-keynesian-economics/8-salient-features-of-post-keynesian-economics/8189

      5. Methodology

      As mentioned above, the post-Keynesian paradigmโ€™s most basic ontological principle, as is the case for the wider heterodox branch of economics, can be described as a holistic or organicistic approach. Accordingly, post-Keynesians advocate for methodological holism. A good example of this organicistic approach is the PK theory of choice, in which consumption or other expenditure decisions (i.e. residential investment, education), as well as financial decisions (i.e. portfolio decisions and credit taking) are strongly interdependent among individuals. Individuals, due to psychological reasons and fundamental uncertainty, compare themselves to others and built their decisions partly on rules of thumb and habits. These forms of group behaviour lie at the heart of post-Keynesian explanations of the recent financial crisis. On the grounds of this social determination of behaviour, post-Keynesian theory emphasizes the role of different classes (the main classes being workers, capitalists and rentiers) and institutions in society. This stands in strong objection to the still dominant neoclassical approach of methodological individualism, which requires that every explanation of economic phenomena has to start from individual behaviour. – snip

      https://www.exploring-economics.org/en/orientation/post-keynesian-economics/

      For you or anyone else to act like or be so confused is not reassuring when making definitive statements.

      https://www.redbubble.com/shop/im+with+stupid+t-shirts

      Enjoy the link down thread.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      They sent the poor here in chains for a reason. Nobody wanted a French Revolution. Think of the Real Estate prices.

    • Actually, I think he wants to arrest them on the basis of hearsay evidence and then deny them access to any lawyer who actually tries to object to their treatment.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      I’m not sure Dutto is on deck after his Corona 19 V.
      The statement about the changes to the acts were put forward by an acting Minister.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Wouldn’t surprise me. Was told about a fit old ex-boxer, still fit and strong as a mallee bull. Got the WuFlu that laid him out for weeks. Been clear for six weeks now and still having trouble getting around. Apparently aged 10 years virtually overnight. He reckons he feels 20 years older.

        Dutton wasn’t a healthy looking bloke to start with. Looked like Frank Thring. Hear him now and it sounds like he’s struggling to get every word out.

    • Wine and complimentary popcorn at the local bar. Busy, not packed. The mood in Darwin is generally good. Police will make a motza with the breathalyzer tonight.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Been there since 12.00? Remember, one for Mum and one for Dad… and one for the Country. ๐Ÿ™Œ

        It was the beer that we had to have.

        • Unfortunately not. I just said hello and had a single glass. Some of my workmates did disappear at lunch not to be seen again. May their hangovers ruin their Saturday.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            And that, Ladies and Germs, is how you get a baby boom from lockdown. That.

            Was amazaed all the social commentators for the last month kept saying this time was different. They forgot the great equalizer. Excessive consumption of alcohol. ๐Ÿบ๐Ÿธ๐Ÿบ๐Ÿธ๐Ÿบ๐Ÿธ๐Ÿ™ˆ๐Ÿ™‰๐Ÿ™Š๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿฃ

          • I miss Darwin, really enjoyed working there.
            Liked the pace and the small town feel.
            Sticky drizzly Sunday mornings drinking cold beer at The Tap watching the passers-by.
            Life is good…

          • Darwin is good. It is what it is. The sky is blue, the beer is cold and the people are friendly. The folk I’ve met who struggle most with it are those who want more than that. I get that to. One of the strange things about it is the inverse relationship about relationships. In a day you see far fewer people than in Melbourne. Yet you end up talking to more here. And it’s a bigger cross section of people as well. The summer can be a bit trying.

          • We are a social species, but it’s probably mental self defence to emotionally shut down when the herd gets overwhelming, because we can not be emotionally invested in too many people. That’s why cities don’t work for cohesion. Something like that anyway, drinking…
            Darwin seems to have a year round laid-back holiday feeling which helps a lot in being friendly to others.
            I experienced the build-up three times, trying for sure. But the lightning shows most evenings were spectacular.

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        Minus the tourist sector, I reckon Darwin’s set for V-shaped bounce-back to the mediocre it was riding pre-COVID. The shops, markets, beach and open houses were all well patronised last weekend, before the pubs even opened. Attitude seems to be “virus, what virus?” up here.

        • I wonder whether the home improvement stimulus has brought forward a lot of demand for tradie work. It may lead to a lot of people not getting jobs they might have done over the following months. I’m told that post election the government will likely go back into the austerity mindset. Given how much the government drives the economy it would likely lead to another period of decline.

    • So … right hand, the plonk, left hand, the kebab … what’s the story with the mouse?

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      It goes against everything he believes (which is people who are suffering / struggling is due to a moral failing and lack of effort/trying/praying to wrong god), therefore helping them out is moral hazard 101 cubed. Withdrawing any support is the best thing you can do to help them. Or at least that is how it seems. Happy to be proven wrong.

    • Some of the childcare groups must have known about this a week or two ago. We had thought about putting our 3 year old in for an extra day at a different childcare to the usual one. The enrolment pack came early last week marked “no charge to 28 June then $$$ per day from 29 June”.
      We didn’t take the place in the end but I was surprised to see they were going to charge from the end of June.

    • Perhaps Mrs Dutton likes the Gubbment money that’s paid on time, every time unlike those pesky clients. “Peter my sweet potato, please have a chat with bloke who stole your rightful place in Australia’s history to keep the money flowing or else…”

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      โ€œThe only people who donโ€™t like Australia are the tall poppies who live in Australia.โ€
      Paging Peachy!

  3. darklydrawlMEMBER

    Off topic, but a quick thanks to Haroldus and a couple of others re: Home growning mushrooms. Got the kit from Enfield (they delivered stupidly fast – Ordered Sunday arvo, box arrived Tuesday AM in Melbourne). Was super simple to set up. Too easy. Going to order a couple more boxes in a few weeks.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Right! That will teach to me to post and try to guess names after I am already through one bottle of Clare valley shiraz! Hic!

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        If those mushies came from Harry youโ€™d better try a few yourself before feeding any to the kids.
        Your 9 year old freaking out on a bad trip at their Nannyโ€™s 76th birthday wonโ€™t go down well with the missus.
        Might even get you called a fken idiot!

        • haroldusMEMBER

          I actually can’t deny my mind has travelled down similar pathways recently……….

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          “Might even get you called a fken idiot!”…<– wouldn't be the first time! ๐Ÿ˜€

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I like Enfield produce because they’re not Bunnings. They have 90% of what I need.

      And they are very friendly too on the email. I am amazed they got it to you within 2 working days in Melbourne. They must have their supply lines worked out pretty good. Had it on Harvinder’s truck by 7.00am Monday morning?

      With our kit, I’m not sure I have the technique right as the mushrooms seems to be clumping, but there are mini mushrooms coming up all over. Who know what is normal for mushrooms?

      I think we might get 2kg out of the kit. Possibly more. If we do, then it has paid for itself. Plus it’s a lot of fun harvesting those not-quite-plant, not-quite-animal fungal freaks. Beware – fresh mushroom are very aromatic!

      Also the missus says the net is torn between cutting and pulling out the mushrooms.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        “I am amazed they got it to you within 2 working days in Melbourne.” Yeah, me too. And I choose the cheapest courier too (as I figured they were all going to be slow). Will let you know how it goes in a few weeks when they start to (hopefully) pop up!

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    โ€œTo safeguard Chinese consumers’ health and safety, China has decided to suspend effectively immediately, processing four Australian companies’ import declarations for meat products,” he said.
    โ€œThe relevant Australian department has been informed of this decision.
    โ€œThe Chinese side has asked the Australian side to conduct a thorough investigation to find the cause and address the issue. You may get more specifics from the competent Chinese authorities.”

    To safeguard the health and safety and shelter of its children Australia has decided to suspend effective immediately the purchase by Chinese citizens of all real estate in Australia .

    The relevant Chinese department has been informed of this decision .

    The Australian side has asked the Chinese side to take their corrupt money and fcuk in the direction of off .
    You may get more specifics from any competent
    non property corrupted Australian authorities.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-15/australia-china-trade-stoush-over-coronavirus-inquiry/12241640

  5. Does anyone have film recommendations? I caught Nice Guys last week. That one deserves more success than it received. I think it’ll end up being a bit of a cult film.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I re-watched “The Big Short” last night and going to revisit “Margin Call” again this weekend. Not sure if they take your fancy but I felt a bit of financial crisis p0rn was in order

      • I rewatched them both last year. They hold up. I out them on to keep my dad occupied when he was visiting. He got it, which surprised me as he wouldn’t have a few years earlier. Not through lack of capability, but willful blindness to the moral of the stories of those films. It made me think that things are changing, even if only at the speed of a sloth that is on smack and trapped in a K hole.

          • One night on the turps I met a doctor. The evening before he had a patient come in. I forget for what. It’s irrelevant. The patient was a opioid user. So they couldn’t use morphine. That’s when they pull out the K. 20mg. The nurse gives the dose. Something’s NQR. The nurse has given the patient 200mg. The patient had entered the K hole. The solution? Our the patient in a dark room with classical music and have a nurse by their side for comfort and reassurance. I’d like to meet the patient to find out what he thought of his surprise adventure.

          • Arcadia Planitia

            Bad but common mistake with drugs like that which are mixed 200mg in 20mL or 100mg in 10mL

            Ketamine
            Propofol
            Metaraminol
            Hydralazine

            Dr says give 20, and means 20mg but nurse (or junior Dr) gives 20mL

          • haroldusMEMBER

            It is quite worrying there is a drug effect I don’t know about.

            While I don’t take ’em all, I like to know about them.

            Getting old *sigh*.

            Anyone hit me up for some K? Actually in a moment of sanity don’t bother. I suspect it would kill me.

            Back to the chardies for harry.

            *sigh*

    • “I caught Nice Guys last week. ”

      Not worth bragging about, footsie, seeing nice guys always finish last anyway.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          The.only recommendable film I’ve finished recently was on SBS: TRACKS starring Mia Wasikowska. A young woman goes on a 1,700 mile trek across the deserts of West Australia with her four camels and faithful dog. Trigger warning: Adam Driver appears at regular intervals. She treats him like a cnvt though, so it balances out. Brilliant lead actress. Stunning direction. The rest is as you would expect for that kind of (true) story.

          Oh, and Serpico. Die Hard without the heist.

    • I watched Girls Out West. The acting’s a bit sus but Aussie bush scenes are terrific.

      • Surgeon General WARNING:
        It has been scientifically proven that watching ‘girls’ with dreads and tats tongue punching each others bush and rim areas are a major cause of erectile disfunction in a large part of the male population.

    • I am GrootMEMBER

      We’ll see.

      Scomo’s already sounding like he woke in the middle of the night in a cold sweat, heart pounding, thinking “What da fook have I done?”