Global Macro

The Mining GFC smouldered overnight as the our Janet barely moved the needle.

Treasury head John Fraser in the Senate this morning on global growth: “There is no clear path ahead…The volatility has been significant.

The Mining GFC raged higher last night as the tension between falling commodities and the end of Fed tightening gave way to simple worries about global growth and commodity demand.

Japanese stocks are taking another flogging today with the Nikkei down -4.4%. More to the point they are now down -8-9% since the BOJ announced its new negative interest rate policy (NIRP) as a part of its ongoing attempt to inflate markets.

The Mining GFC crisis deepened last night as rumoured US shale bankruptcies swept the market and stocks were pummeled -2.5% then rebounded some: Those low 1800s support levels on the S&P500 do not look strong.

The only credible institution in world banking, and the only one that warned of the GFC,  today warned on the Mining GFC: The growth of debt in the emerging economies has been dramatic, as shown in Graph 1.

After one day off it’s baaaack.

From the FT’s always excellent Martin Wolf on what central banks need to think through for the next recession (which may not be far away): One would be to do nothing.

From our old friend Clifford Bennett: One could be forgiven for thinking thus.

This post comes via Zero Hedge and is, for me, the key question for just how bad the Mining GFC is going to get.

The Mining GFC sputtered into life last night.

From the World Health Organisation comes news the Americas hardly need.

The Mining GFC took a well-earned break overnight as oil rumourtage doused some flames.

From the FT: Officials from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are heading to Azerbaijan to discuss a possible $4bn emergency loan package in what risks becoming the first of a series of bailouts stemming from the tumbling oil price.

From the FOMC comes a little acknowledgement that things are not going too well: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.

Finally someone else has worked out what’s at stake in the Mining GFC.

By Alpha Beta Strategy and Economics DAVOS 2016 The mood in Davos this year was mixed.

Brent oil rocketed 10% on Friday night and the Pavlovian share market went with it: Alas the odds still favour this being another bear market rally, not a bottom.

I don’t regularly follow the Baltic Dry Index as a direct indicator of economic or market forecasts, but you cannot deny the current price action, as it reaches a record low.