Via Ray Dalio: The Threat to Limit Capital Flows to China and Pending Impeachment Conflict: Next Logical Steps in a Classic Dangerous Journey? The 1935-45 Analogue Regarding that classic dangerous journey, you have heard me describe it many times but, at the risk of boring you, I will repeat it. I believe that we are on
In mid-2018, the US declared the China American Cold War a go. It comprised a series of ratcheting trade tariffs by the Trump Administration directed at China. these were directed largely at shifting global manufacturing supply chains, especially in technology, away from China. The measures were directed specifically at China’s stated aim of dominating global technology, artificial intelligence and robotics by 2025.
Other dimensions of the growing Great Power conflict included freedom of navigation through the South China Sea where China had constructed series of far-flung militarised atolls that armed the distant approaches to its mainland and effectively claimed that ocean as sovereign Chinese.
The Cold War was also concentrated around Chinese ‘sharp power’ which had made significant inroads in influencing policy outcomes within the US alliance network in and around the Asia Pacific via bribes, debt diplomacy and corruption of media.
The China American Cold War showed all of the characteristics of an historic, ideological struggle between liberal democracy and statist growth that had defined the 20th century battle between the US and the Soviet Union.
Via the ABC: A Hong Kong police officer shot a teenage protester at close range as fierce clashes between authorities and pro-democracy activists broke out in several parts of the city on Tuesday. While officers have previously fired warning shots in the air on multiple occasions during months of demonstrations in Hong Kong, this was
Courtesy of Sinocism: Hong Kong braces for ‘violent attack’ on sensitive Chinese anniversary: police – Reuters There will be a “very serious violent attack,” the chief superintendent of the police’s public relations branch, Tse Chun-chung, told a news conference on Monday. “We are on the verge of extreme danger.”.. Authorities are eager to avoid scenes
Not outgoing US flows, incoming Chinese flows. Previously via Michael Pettis: On July 31, 2019, U.S. Senators Tammy Baldwin and Josh Hawley submitted a bill “to establish a national goal and mechanism to achieve a trade-balancing exchange rate for the United States dollar, to impose a market access charge on certain purchases of United States assets, and
Great stuff from George Magnus, former UBS chief global economist and China doyen, in a terrific article by Angus Grigg: Magnus, who last year published Red Flags; Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy, cites demographics, debt levels and the lack of independent institutions as the key points of Beijing’s vulnerability. And he says any faltering
Via The Guardian: The Australian political blogger and novelist, Yang Hengjun, is currently being shackled in chains and interrogated inside a Beijing detention centre, and is being told by authorities he could face the death penalty for espionage. Detained in China since January, Yang continues to protest his innocence to authorities and says he can
It’s all the way with the USA, says David Crowe: Morrison believes that Australian interest is in telling China the old way cannot continue. This is a risk. Chinese observers already talk of a “freeze” in relations; now there is the prospect of a further chill. Morrison has logic on his side but will not
Is there progress? Via Reuters: U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a deal to end a nearly 15-month trade war with China could happen sooner than people think and that the Chinese were making big agricultural purchases from the United States, including of beef and pork. …“They want to make a deal very badly…
They come to visit as guests and spend most of the time pouring scorn upon you. Via Domain: Australia is the pioneer of a global anti-China campaign, a high-level Chinese embassy delegation has claimed, as relations between the two countries fall to among the worst in the developed world. Accusing Prime Minister Scott Morrison of
From the NYT: The combination on Friday of tough words from President Trump and the cancellation of a planned trip by Chinese agriculture officials to two farm states seemed to cast a cloud over prospects for a trade deal and caused a sell-off in New York stock trading. But both sides moved on Saturday to
If only “Labor” put as much effort into governing for the working classes as it did into China groveling. Via the AFR: Australia should embrace closer military co-operation with China, Labor deputy leader and defence spokesman Richard Marles has declared, labelling attempts to define Beijing as an enemy a “profound mistake”. In a significant speech
To finish a pants-shitting week, lets go to the weekend in crisply pressed strides, only with nasty skid marks: China has developed the world’s first portable sonic gun for riot control, the Chinese Academy of Sciences said. The rifle-shaped instrument, which was jointly developed with military and law enforcement, is designed to disperse crowds using
Via strategic doyen Ross Babbage, Chief Executive Officer of Strategic Forum Pty Ltd and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) in Washington DC. Dr Babbage is also Managing Director of Strategy International, a national security consulting and educational services company. Dr Babbage formerly held the position as Head
Liugate day whatever. The questions continue to mount. Today Domain has a good podcast on Gladys Liu, starring Dave Crowe and Chris Uhlmann, which leaks that Ms Liu addressed the Coalition party room on Hong Kong last week, leaving everyone bemused and concerned. At 15.40: What did she say? Why don’t we know? Why is
This is what Australians are up against. The nation’s leading business paper has completely lost faith in its own system. From the AFR editorial: …where we really part company with Washington is that we don’t accept that China is a strategic competitor that must be contained. Mr Morrison has instead revived the Menzian formula of
The Iranian conflict is more or less over before it began, via CNN: President Trump said Wednesday that his administration would be announcing sanctions on Iran “over the next 48 hours.” He also said that his “thinking pretty much remains the same” on the recent attack on Saudi Arabia. Trump, speaking on a Los Angeles
Liugate rolls on today without the slightest interruption. Indeed, there are signs that it is getting worse. The protection racket around PM Morrison run by The Australian is fraying. First, from Strewth: Another day, another Gladys Liu fundraiser across Strewth’s desk. The latest is “an exclusive cocktail event” presented by the Pinnacle Club (a fundraising
Via the always CCP happy clappy AFR: The a2 Milk Company chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka has dismissed suggestions that Chinese authorities delayed approving a licence for rival Bellamy’s Australia to drive down its share price. She said Chinese regulators had taken a “logical and sensible” approach to managing the country’s infant formula market. Ms Hrdlicka,
Via Gottiboff today comes a rare window of rationality: President Xi had to decide whether to quell the Hong Kong protests before the national celebration day on October 1 or pursue a trade deal with the US. He could not do both. There is already strong anti-China sentiment in the US and a brutal putting
Beijing knows an asset when it sees one. From the ultra-nationalist Global Times yesterday: The Bolt Report on Sky News Australia on the night of September 10 was almost like “a bully’s report,” where ultra-conservative anchor Andrew Bolt intimidated and interrogated Gladys Liu, the first Chinese-born female Federal Liberal MP from Chisholm in Victoria, Southeastern
Via Reuters: Terry Gou, founder of Apple supplier Foxconn (2317.TW), in a surprise move on Monday said he will not contest in Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election. Gou, Taiwan’s richest person with a net worth of $7.6 billion according to Forbes, said in a statement late on Monday he would not join the already competitive race,
Via the Politco: U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told top business executives on Monday that there is still much work to be done to reach a trade deal with China despite the two sides having been close to an agreement earlier this year, said U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue. “He laid it out
Recall from Reuters yesterday: Australian intelligence determined China was responsible for a cyber-attack on its national parliament and three largest political parties before the general election in May, five people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters… The report, which also included input from the Department of Foreign Affairs, recommended keeping the findings secret
Aussie PM, Shanghai Scott, is on the back foot, at The Guardian: The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has told parliament he misheard a question from a journalist when he denied using the term Shanghai Sam, as Labor continues to attack the government over embattled Chinese-born MP Gladys Liu. In question time on Monday, the Labor leader, Anthony
China is going ex-growth. The August monthly data dump is unequivocal. Industrial production slumped to the lowest year dot at 4.4%, fixed asset investment is slowing too at 5.5% and retail is tracking both down at 7.5%: The trends are rock solid down. Under the bonnet the news is also bad for the growth mix.
Via ABC: Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones from its territory in the attack on a key Saudi oil facility Saturday, a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday. It is an extraordinary charge to make, that Iran used missiles and drones to attack its neighbor and rival Saudi
Via Hong Kong Free Press: Police have fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon containing dye and tear spray at pro-democracy protesters, as Hong Kong entered its fifteenth week of demonstrations. The march, originally organised by the Civil Human Rights Front, was cancelled after the police objected to the event. But on Sunday, thousands
Still more fallout from Chinese influence today, this time Labor, at Domain: A NSW Labor MP, who is linked to pro-China community organisations, hired a staffer who completed a propaganda training course in Beijing run by the Chinese Communist Party. Upper house MLC Shaoquett Moselmane, who controversially gave a speech last year proclaiming a “new