Albo’s China reset is a write-off

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There are six dimensions to the disaster that is Albo’s China “reset”.

The first is that Australia is on the verge of annihilating its own economy. Canberra is, in part, refusing to address China’s gas cartel, to make friends. This threatens an economic depression that is difficult to fathom.

At approaching global gas prices, it will include 30% inflation, skyrocketing cash rate, house prices -75% and real incomes at 1990 levels.

Second, the Pacific continues to slide away from Australia as the Solomon Islands turn autocratic at pace. Sinocism:

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The Solomon Islands continues its march towards a more autocratic state, with threats now to foreign journalists. And there is a report circulating that the country denied to two US Coast Guard boats. The way the PRC has run circles around the US and Australia in the Solomons is remarkable; neglect and arrogance are easily exploited.

Solomon Islands threatens to ban foreign journalists entry into country over ‘demeaning’ coverage – ABC News

the statement from Mr Sogavare’s office insists that the ABC’s scrutiny of China’s actions in Solomon Islands amounted to “racial profiling”, declaring that the broadcaster was “trying to tell the Solomon Islands people that because the Government of Solomon Islands is opening up to partners who are not, in the opinion of ABC, white and does not operate a democratic system it is wrong, unfit and corrupt.”

It then seems to use that claim as a basis for entry bans on reporters, saying “the Constitution of Solomon Islands protects Solomon Islands from racial discrimination and the government of Solomon Islands will ensure that racial practices are eliminated from Solomon Islands.”

Distribution of Chinese funds by Solomon Islands PM raises questions | Reuters

On Tuesday, the Prime Minister’s Office said SBD20.9 million ($2.49 million) was provided by China for a fund spent at the prime minister’s discretion in 2021, and two tranches of payments were made to 39 lawmakers in November and December.

Question: Didn’t Taiwan also offer such funds when it had formal relations with the Solomons?

U.S. Coast Guard Conducts Port Visit in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea > U.S. Indo-Pacific Command > 2015

The U.S. Coast Guard is conducting a routine deployment in Oceania as part of Operation Blue Pacific, working alongside Allies, building maritime domain awareness, and sharing best practices with partner nation navies and coast guards. Op Blue Pacific seeks to strengthen partnerships and execute a mission to support maritime governance and the rule of law, understand, measure, and articulate regional influences and relationships, and provide our crews with the best operational assets and support to get the mission done and safely return.

Third, China is now so bolshy about Australian groveling that it is bold enough to use us whenever it sees fit without reprisal or resistance. It recently used our Press Club to declare war on, and re-education for, another Asian democracy. Make no mistake, this was a warning to Australia straight out of the 14 conditions to end democracy:

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We did nothing in response when the only sane thing to do was expel the Ambassador and cut ties.

Groveling is only making China more aggressive, needless to say. So, you can expect a lot more violations of Australian interests.

Fourth, the last election handed Labor four federal seats based upon going soft on China. In the wake of that, Albo plans the most aggressive mass immigration program in our history. There is no discussion about where these folks will come from and, most assuredly, the local Chinese Australian community will grow. The LNP opposition is being forced to officially review its hawkish Chinese stance to recapture these seats.

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This is not to blame local ethnic Chinese, many of whom have implicitly threatened relatives in China. But, how many Chinese-dominated electorates will it take before Australian capacity for resistance to the CCP becomes a numerical impossibility at the ballot box?

Fifth, Chinese grovellers are now cock-a-hoop in the Aussie press. It took me years to quiet them down with some basic national interest analysis. Now they are back and the normatives that govern Australian politics pertaining to China will ease with them.

This tips into the last point. Ruthless business interests will now mull closer Chinese ties and slow their diversification from that nation exposing us once more to economic coercion.

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Albo is going the wrong way on China. I doubt he is even capable of turning. Labor’s ranks are full of Chinese grovellers and its greybeards are appalling on the issue. Indeed, many want to see Australia transformed into an integrated Chinese satrap.

In one sense, Albo is doing a better job. His measures to bring transparency back to our liberal democracy are essential if we are to prevail in this war. We must repair our own system of government so that it matches up against China in the grand competition ahead, both practically and emotionally.

But this is paradoxical. The next time Albo persecutes ScoMo, which the former PM certainly has coming, take moment to consider that the former PM at least defended Australian interests in his own loony way.

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Conversely, Albo hasn’t pushed back any of Scomo’s structural changes in defense but his reset has put us on course for soft power domination by the Chinese Communist Party.

That will ultimately make hard power resistance futile.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.