Albo’s Japanese treaty can’t guarantee gas

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Albo has finally gotten something right:

On Saturday, Kishida and Albanese signed a new Joint Declaration on Security Co-operation. This is much more than an update of the 2007 declaration signed by then prime ministers Shinzo Abe and John Howard. That was mainly concerned with terrorism, nuclear non-proliferation and North Korea. This new declaration is concerned with building deterrence and strength in the face of Chinese military assertiveness. It is by far the most ambitious and consequential security agreement between the two nations so far.

The new declaration is not a military alliance, nor is it a peace treaty. But it uses language almost identical to Australia’s ANZUS alliance treaty with the US. It will commit Australia and Japan to consult each other on contingencies that affect each others’ security, and consult on responses to such contingencies. That language is almost an exact reproduction of the formal provisions of the ANZUS treaty, and no one in the region will miss the connection.

Beijing is sure to campaign diplomatically against the declaration, just as it complained in 2007, and just as it campaigns against the AUKUS agreement involving the US, Australia and the UK.

…In written answers to questions, Kishida said Japan and Australia, as well as G7 countries, shared the same position on Taiwan, and expected that the issue of Taiwan’s relations with Beijing would be settled peacefully.

Good job. At least we can put the ‘China reset’ to bed now. But what about this?

The two countries also signed a critical minerals partnership aimed at building secure supply chains from Australia’s resources industry to advanced manufacturing in Japan and promoting investment in rare earths, nickel, cobalt, copper and other minerals needed in the electricification of economies.

…High up on Mr Kishida’s agenda were concerns about the reliability of gas exports from Australia to Japan amid tension in the federal government about the domestic supply and price of gas.

Mr Kishida sought and received assurances from Mr Albanese that Japan could rely on supply under its contracts with Australian producers.

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Albo will have to find a solution to the east coast gas cartel or he can’t guarantee anything. Domestic forces and the Chinese stranglehold over the project volumes prevent such security.

Are we any closer to finding said solution? Quite the opposite. Aussie states are turning on each other:

South Australia will not provide gas to New South Wales in a supply crunch, the state’s energy minister has warned in an extraordinary speech to industry.

The mining and energy minister, Tom Koutsantonis, made the comments on Thursday during a candid address at an oil and gas industry event in Adelaide, where he warned public sentiment was turning against them.

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The answer is simple. Cap the local price of gas. Even better is an export levy to capture the profit windfalls. This will crash the local price and capture scores of billions for Australia without jeopardising export contracts.

In better news, the local gas price tanked late last week:

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As JKM keeps falling and local political economy heat keeps rising:

Though, no relief for power prices yet:

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There is no allied energy security without Australian energy security.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.