Australian Economy

Regular readers will know that I am a harsh sceptic of Victoria’s economic model, penning dozens of articles over the years criticising the state’s over-dependence on mass immigration and population growth to drive the economy, rather than productivity and export driven growth (read my most recent report here).

Two week’s sure is a long time in the world of COVID.

Roy Morgan Research projects strong post-Christmas sales across Australia, with the exception of Victoria: Roy Morgan’s annual post-Christmas retail sales forecasts conducted in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) project Australians are set to spend $19.46 billion across retail stores during the post-Christmas trading period, an increase of 3.9% from a year ago.

From Roy Morgan Research: Of all Australians 59% now think 2021 will be ‘better’ than 2020 – the highest positive view on the year ahead since 2009 following the Global Financial Crisis, a special Roy Morgan web survey conducted in November finds.

Academics from three WA universities are calling for a royal commission into higher education.

It’s shaping up to be a bad Christmas for Sydney residents, especially those on the Northern Beaches, with the city’s coronavirus cluster multiplying.

A new report from the Australian Council of Social Service (ACOSS) and UNSW argues that higher welfare payments should be maintained rather than handing higher income earners tax cuts.

Australia was so close to fully eliminating local transmission of COVID-19.

Seek has delivered more good news on the economic front: OVERVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2020: STATE OF THE NATION: SEEK job ads are up by 8.6% month-on-month (m/m). SEEK job ads are up 1.0% year-on-year (y/y).

Last month, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg declared war on corporate regulator ASIC over its enforcement of responsible lending rules, stating that the regulator needs to be overhauled so it conforms to the will of parliament: “They must pursue their mandates in a manner that is consistent with the will of the parliament,” he said.

Westpac on the ABS data: The Victorian lockdown was lifted on November 8 so it’s not surprising that the gains in payrolls was led by a strong recovery Victoria.

Via Westpac: This is the strongest growth rate in the sixty year history of the measure.

Via Markit: Pushing towards a better paced recovery now but I really would like to see the index above 60 with catch-up growth.

Callam Pickering, economist at global jobs site Indeed, has updated his job postings data, which is running ahead of the same time in 2019: “Hiring remained above trend over the past week – Victoria up 8.5% against last year’s trend and the rest of Australia up 8%.

Below are retail sector forecasts from Deloitte’s latest Weekly economic briefing: Deloitte Access Economics’ latest Retail Forecasts shows that retail spending has weathered the COVID-19 storm remarkably well to date.

Via Moody’s: Used-Vehicle Price Growth Hits the Brakes but Doesn’t Come to a Complete Stop Australian used-vehicle prices reached yet another all-time high in November.

Deloitte Access Economics partner David Rumbens says the Christmas trading period is critical for retailers in any year, but the COVID-19 pandemic means it will be more so in 2020.

From Roy Morgan Research: In November Australians expected inflation of 3.4% annually over the next two years, down 0.1% points from October but still up 0.2% points on the record low in August.

Via Goldman: This note expands our monthly forecasting vaccination model by including the major emerging markets and the ten leading global vaccine candidates.

A Liberal-chaired parliamentary committee has renewed calls for a dedicated agriculture visa, claiming that easier access to migrant workers is needed to alleviate purported chronic skills shortages: The lower house’s standing agriculture committee on Monday released its findings from an inquiry into growing the sector to a $100 billion industry by 2030.

The on again, off again Trans-Tasman travel bubble has been approved in principle by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.