Global Macro

By LF Economics The US sociologist and criminologist Edwin Hardin Sutherland is widely considered the founder of white-collar criminology, and was mentored by a protégé of the well-known economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen.

Via Goldman: The tariff impact on S&P 500 EPS through lower revenues is minimal.

Definitely.

By Leith van Onselen Back in March, job search website Adzuna estimated that around one-third Australian jobs could be lost to automation by 2030, with lower-skilled and manual labour jobs most at risk.

Via Ray Dalio of Bridgewater: What is Universal Basic Income (UBI)?

Via Moody’s: Financial markets believe that the U.S. is likely to fare better than most other major economies in an allout trade war. This is because (i) international trade accounts for a smaller share of U.S. business activity, (ii) the U.S. imports far more than it exports, and (iii) the U.S.

Via Bloomie: After the U.S.

Via Bloomie today: U.S.

Alan Kohler has tackled the trade war: President Trump has declared that America’s trade deficit with China must shrink dramatically, which is the purpose of the tariffs.

Via Bloomie: President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on every single Chinese import into America as the world’s two largest economies exchanged the first blows in a trade war that isn’t set to end anytime soon.

Recall that China has tried to play Europe for the chump, via Reuters: China is putting pressure on the European Union to issue a strong joint statement against President Donald Trump’s trade policies at a summit later this month but is facing resistance, European officials said.

Via Morgan Stanley: We no longer doubt that the US administration’s proposals signal the direction of trade policy.

OK, so the rhetoric of trade war is heating up fast.

The Trump Administration effort in reversing thirty plus years of free trade negotiations in less than 12 months via the use of tariffs and trade restrictions is still reverberating around the globe.

Via the always good value Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Headlines blared the latest recession warning today, this time from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates.

At times I have agreed with Horseman Global (known by the some as the world’s most bearish hedge fund) but not today: One of the most dangerous things to happen in financial markets is to be right for the wrong reasons.

It’s pretty obvious that there can only be one winner.

Satyajit Das at Domainfax: Several factors could lead to a dangerous shortage of liquidity in the event of a crisis.

Some from Bloomberg: “Here we are doing something that almost seems like a suicide mission,” Gundlach said in a webcast discussing his DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund.

Via Vimal Gor at Pendal (formerly BT): Well that was certainly fun.