Global Macro

The Australian is very hopeful indeed: With the US and China set to ­resume trade talks, investors are expected to anticipate a breakthrough, pushing shares, commodities and the Aussie dollar higher before talks on Wednesday and Thursday.

From Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Panic!

From Bloomie: China will dispatch Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen to the U.S.

Vai Damien Booey at Credit Suisse: Europe goes “cold Turkey” We have just published an article explaining why we are concerned about contagion risks from Turkey (attached).

DXY is off to the races as EUR finally breaks on the reality of clapped out European growth: Here’s why: AUD broke to two year lows versus DMs: But soared against collapsing EMs: AUD market positioning is pushing towards more rarefied bearish territory at -55k contracts: Gold held up remarkably well.

by Chris Becker Last night saw the Bank of England (BOE) raise its benchmark interest rates to 0.75%, the highest since the bowels of the GFC in 2009.

By LF Economics The US sociologist and criminologist Edwin Hardin Sutherland is widely considered the founder of white-collar criminology, and was mentored by a protégé of the well-known economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen.

Via Goldman: The tariff impact on S&P 500 EPS through lower revenues is minimal.

Definitely.

By Leith van Onselen Back in March, job search website Adzuna estimated that around one-third Australian jobs could be lost to automation by 2030, with lower-skilled and manual labour jobs most at risk.

Via Ray Dalio of Bridgewater: What is Universal Basic Income (UBI)?

Via Moody’s: Financial markets believe that the U.S. is likely to fare better than most other major economies in an allout trade war. This is because (i) international trade accounts for a smaller share of U.S. business activity, (ii) the U.S. imports far more than it exports, and (iii) the U.S.

Via Bloomie: After the U.S.

Via Bloomie today: U.S.

Alan Kohler has tackled the trade war: President Trump has declared that America’s trade deficit with China must shrink dramatically, which is the purpose of the tariffs.

Via Bloomie: President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on every single Chinese import into America as the world’s two largest economies exchanged the first blows in a trade war that isn’t set to end anytime soon.

Recall that China has tried to play Europe for the chump, via Reuters: China is putting pressure on the European Union to issue a strong joint statement against President Donald Trump’s trade policies at a summit later this month but is facing resistance, European officials said.

Via Morgan Stanley: We no longer doubt that the US administration’s proposals signal the direction of trade policy.

OK, so the rhetoric of trade war is heating up fast.

The Trump Administration effort in reversing thirty plus years of free trade negotiations in less than 12 months via the use of tariffs and trade restrictions is still reverberating around the globe.