Australian Property

APRA’s monthly banking statistics have nothing but bad news for house price.

With dwelling values across three of Australia’s capitals in freefall: The time taken for first home buyers (FHBs) to save a deposit has fallen, according to Domain.

Via Westpac: Given the intense focus on Australia’s housing markets at the moment and in light of our recent commentary around the best way to interpret auction market results (seehere) we will start putting out short previews each Friday and summary updates the following Monday setting out how results should be viewed.

By Leith van Onselen Shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, has announced that Labor’s signature negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) reforms will come into effect on 1 January 2020, roughly seven months after the federal election.

After Chris Joye’s big short post yesterday, some readers wanted to know more about how to short Aussie house prices.

Via UBS’s excellent George Theranou: Households are still leveraging.

By Leith van Onselen The Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) has released its 2019 State of the Land report, which reveals that median lot prices continued to rise in 2018: Despite shrinking in size: And crashing sales: The below time series gives the longer-term context.

Via Livewiremarkets: In assessing whether to get long or short residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), we undertake a great deal of quantitative analysis, including revaluing the homes that protect these bonds at regular intervals and developing globally unique RMBS default and prepayment indices.

By Leith van Onselen REA chief economist, Nerida Conisbee, believes residential construction will bust over the next six months, ushering in “the deepest construction employment downturn since the GFC”.

By Leith van Onselen According to Bloomberg, Canadians are “freaking out” over the level of household debt, which is now the highest of the G7 nations at 100% of GDP: Household debt in Canada, a nation generally known for moderation, has reached levels that could be qualified as excessive.

Via the AFR comes the chutzpah of the roving cavaliers of credit: ANZ Banking Group chief executive Shayne Elliott has rebuffed Australian Securities and Investments Commission chief prosecutor Dan Crennan’s ambitions to lock bankers in jail, arguing regulators should prioritise a “fully functioning financial system” to support the economy.

By Leith van Onselen With Australia’s housing market suffering the worst price bust in modern history: And losses accelerating: CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, has advised first home buyers (FHBs) to hold-off from buying.

By Leith van Onselen As reported in The Australian today, former prime minister John Howard has rejected suggestions that wealth inequality is rising in Australia, noting that research by Credit Suisse in 2018 refutes this.

Via UBS’ excellent Jonathon Mott: WBC is finding it very difficult to estimate the potential remediation requirements for customers served via aligned planners, especially as many planners no longer work under BTFG Licences and in many cases have left the industry.

By Leith van Onselen With concerns over the mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy on the rise, the Property Council has resorted to planning propaganda 101: pushing something undesirable as inevitable, then suggesting solutions that line its own pocket.

Via The Australian: The company has been caught up in a storm of falling volumes and auction clearance rates as well as an exodus of high-performing agents and the loss of key offices, including on Sydney’s wealthy north shore.

Push it, mate.