Australian Economy

Via the excellent George Theranou at UBS: Based on our proprietary survey, our Q3 headline CPI forecast is unrevised at 0.4% q/q, slowing from Q2’s bounce to 0.6% (driven by petrol). This is partly due to retracement of fuel (-2.3%, -0.07%pts); while the UBS Evidence Lab Grocery Tracker has food up 0.7%.

Oh yes, via the AFR: Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has rejected a renewed push by NSW to bring back federal incentives for state asset recycling, a privatisation scheme designed to help fund large infrastructure projects, saying the state’s budget is in better shape than the Commonwealth’s and needs no more handouts.

With Victoria’s population growing out of control on the back of turbo-charged immigration: And Melbourne’s population projected to more than double over the next half century: You would think that the Victorian State Government would be seeking to boost the stock of social housing in order to prevent vulnerable residents from becoming homeless.

Via The Australian comes the oligarchs: Fortescue Metals Group boss Elizabeth Gaines has warned that China will look to develop alternative iron ore supplies outside the Pilbara if Australia neglects its relationship with its biggest trading partner…Ms Gaines said the Australian business community needed to maintain its influence in public debate on political policies.

More trade scuttlebutt this afternoon, via Bloomie: The White House is looking at rolling out a previously agreed currency pact with China as part of an early harvest deal that could also see a tariff increase next week suspended, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Recessionberg!

The Joint Standing Committee on Trade (JSCOT) has released its report rubber stamping the Hong Kong and Indonesia Free Trade Agreements (FTAs).

Cross-posted from One Step off the Grid: The calendar says winter is over.

Oh yes, via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Over the past few days, we have witnessed some rather sharp deterioration in the leading indicators of Australian growth: Westpac consumer confidence fell sharply in early October to 92.8 from 98.2.

The ABC has published an interesting profile on the outer-Western Melbourne suburb of Tarneit, which is fast morphing into a modern migrant slum nightmare: When the Bahadur family moved into their new home in Melbourne’s booming outer west four months ago, they dreamed of suburban bliss.

Via the AFR today: The chair of the Energy Security Board Dr Kerry Schott says the rapid take-up of household rooftop solar panels in Australian cities is causing energy security problems for energy distribution companies.

The Recessionberg plan building confidence day by day!

Yesterday we reported how the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for International Development has ranked the Australian economy amongst the least sophisticated, with Harvard labelling Australia “rich, dumb and getting dumber”.

Yesterday’s NAB survey beautifully exposed why the Aussie economy is no danger of any kind of rebound worth the price of admission.

Via NAB: Business conditions recorded a sixth consecutive below-average month, pointing to ongoing weakness in the business sector.

Something of a slowing in the ANZ job ads negative trend: After falling 2.6% m/m in August, ANZ Job Ads recorded a small gain of 0.3% in September.

The Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for International Development has developed an Atlas of Economic Complexity, with Australia being ranked as having one of the least complex economies.

Treasury analysis, obtained under Freedom of Information, claims that raising Australia’s superannuation guarantee (‘compulsory superannuation) to 12% would lower wage growth and would make the gender retirement savings imbalance even worse: Though compulsory SG contributions are paid for by employers, wage settings generally takes into account all labour costs.

Via Independent Australia: IN A RECENT SURVEY conducted by the Australian Financial Review, every single economist who participated had the same message for the Morrison Government: the Reserve Bank should not have to rescue the economy on its own.

In late 2017, the Victorian Labor Government completed a shady $6.7 billion deal with Transurban to build the West Gate Tunnel Project, which will see Transurban contribute $4.4 billion towards the cost in exchange motorists paying $15 billion in additional tolls on CityLink until 2045.