Australian Economy

Some charts from Damien Boey at Credit Suisse offering a lead on the labour market after yesterday’s weakening read: I can see this coming as: dwelling construction crashes; infrastructure starts to plateau; the NDIS roll out halves; and consumption remains weak.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released its Australian Demographic Statistics for the March quarter of 2019, which revealed that Australia’s population continues to grow manically led by surging net overseas migration (NOM), mostly into Sydney and Melbourne.

The Australian dollar has resumed its great sink today as bank and market observers pile in for rate cuts: Bonds are on fire: Stocks too: Dalian is weak: But nobody cares as Big Iron reaches for the skies.

From Roy Morgan Research: In August, Australians expected annual inflation of 3.9% over the next two years.

This is what Australians are up against.

As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for August, which registered a 34,700 increase in total employment but an increase in the headline unemployment rate (from 5.2% to 5.3%) due to a 0.09% increase in labour force participation.

Via the ABS just now comes Labour Force for August: AUGUST KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased by 22,000 to 12,921,100 persons.

Victoria water minister has ruled-out building any new dams, claiming that climate change and lack of rain fall will render them useless.

Via Reuters: The government will publish its “Final Budget Outcome” for the 2018/19 fiscal year ended on June 30 on Thursday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told Australia’s parliament.

Via Domain: Job advertisements in Sydney and Melbourne are falling at double digit rates, prompting concern unemployment may be increasing despite cuts in official interest rates and the Morrison government’s tax cuts for low and middle income earners.

Via the always CCP happy clappy AFR: The a2 Milk Company chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka has dismissed suggestions that Chinese authorities delayed approving a licence for rival Bellamy’s Australia to drive down its share price.

Via Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business: The Monthly Leading Indicator of Employment (the Indicator) has fallen for the sixteenth consecutive month in September 2019, after nine consecutive monthly rises.

From CBA: Retail Trade Preview – August 2019 ■ We estimate that the value of retail trade rose by 0.9% in August. ■ CBA’s Household Spending Intentions (HSI) measure, based on a sample of more than 2½ million households combined with relevant search information from Google Trends, indicates tax rebates are being spent.

No surprise here, via Westpac: Last month’s improved signal has been very short lived with the Index growth rate back firmly in negative territory where it has been stuck for eight of the last nine months.

This morning I was interviewed by Luke Grant from Radio 2GB to discuss yesterday’s article on Australia’s “bullshit” services jobs boom.

Via the AFR: An imminent return to boom-time employment levels in the Australian mining sector is likely to accelerate labour cost inflation that is already evident in the industry’s most active hubs in Western Australia and Queensland.

Economist Jason Murphy has penned an article on the rise in Australia’s services economy, which is now fuelling the lion’s share of jobs growth: Australia has turned into a services economy.

Water Minister, David Littleproud, has hypocritically attacked Australia’s states for failing to build enough dams to provide for Australia’s ballooning population: The federal government has sounded a warning about falling water security, saying the states have failed to match water storage with population growth over the past two decades.

Deary me. The Bellamy’s suitor is associated with a State Owned Enterprise (that is, the Chinese Communist Party) so obviously the acquisition should be blocked, if on no other grounds than unfair trade practices, blocking access then buying the company.

Via ANZ: Consumer confidence slumped to its lowest level in more than two years at the weekend, according to an ANZ survey that suggests people are preparing for more difficult economic conditions over the next five years.

Adrian Blundell-Wignall making more sense today: Monetary policy cannot “fix” stag-deflation in the West, the fundamental cause of which is excess investment in certain parts of the world.