Why an Australian recession is “nigh on impossible”

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The Australian’s Adam Creighton has joined the conga-line of commentators attacking gross domestic product (GDP) as a welfare measure and has argued that a recession in Australia is “nigh on impossible” due to the federal government’s mass immigration policy:

GDP is particularly fraught as a measure of welfare for Australia. Politicians crow about the scarcity of our recessions — by convention, two quarters of negative GDP growth — but the relentless influx of people means it’s nigh on impossible to have one.

Consider that US net overseas migration was 595,000 last year; in Australia, with less than 8 per cent America’s population, it was about 240,000. Indeed, when ­adjusted for population, Australia has had recessions in 2000, 2006, late 2008 and is almost certainty in the midst of one now.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.