US Economy

Via Bloomie comes David Woo, head of global rates and foreign exchange strategy at Bank of America: “I’ve never been this bullish the U.S.

Via Westpac today: Expectations for business investment through late-2017 and 2018 have been abnormally strong on the back of fiscal reform.

Last night saw the twin release of US consumer confidence figures and the Case Shiller House Price index.

Via the always good value Tim Duy at Fed Watch: Headlines blared the latest recession warning today, this time from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff & Associates.

Amusing stuff today.

Via the AFR: A US recession could occur within the next two years according to former US bond trader Charlie Jamieson, who says the flattening of the bond yield curve is a signpost of possible trouble ahead.

Some more good work from Damien Boey at Credit Suisse today: US inflation picks up a little further US headline CPI rose by 0.2% in May, taking year-ended headline inflation higher to 2.8% from 2.5%.

By Leith van Onselen While the Turnbull Government and the Business Council of Australia (BCA) continue to push the Senate to lower Australia’s company tax rate to 25% from 30%, the impact from the recent US corporate tax cuts continues to disappoint, sounding a warning signal for Australia’s senators.

While the world’s press is busy lapping up the anti-Trump hysteria post-G7, let’s stop and ask what did they expect?

EUR fell Friday night and DXY rose: The ludicrous EUR long pulled back but nowhere near enough: AUD rallied with risk: EM currencies are still in trouble: AUD shorts were roughly unchanged: Gold fell: WTI was smashed but Brent held on.

Courtesy of Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for May. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May (with a range of estimates between 155,000 to 220,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%.

Via Elliot Clarke at Westpac: The minutes of a FOMC meeting typically hold little significance for the market.

Readers will know for that since the global business cycle turned eight years old in 2017 I’ve been on end-of-cycle watch.

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 191,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April (with a range of estimates between 145,000 to 255,000), and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.0%.

By Leith van Onselen While the Turnbull Government and the Business Council of Australia (BCA) continue to insist that reducing the company tax rate is essential to fuel investment, jobs and wages growth, the impact from the recent US corporate tax cuts continues to disappoint, fueling little more than a boom in share buybacks.

DXY flew higher last night as EUR tanked.

Via UBS: RMB-denominated oil contracts began trading for the first time in Shanghai on March 26.

And excellent piece from FFWiley on the US business cycle: Media coverage of most business-cycle indicators waxes and wanes with changes in the economy, but so far in 2018, the yield curve indicator is all wax.

Via Moody’s: Who to Blame for the Flattening Yield Curve The U.S.

By Leith van Onselen Treasurer Scott Morrison has confirmed that the Turnbull Government will persist with its policy of progressively reducing the tax rate for all companies, claiming they are essential to fuel investment, jobs and wages growth.

All he needed to do was shut up.

Some nice MSM panic today via Reuters: Whether China is reducing its vast holdings of U.S.

Just in case you thought China had the upper hand in the trade wars owing to US politics.