Why the US will blow up the economic cycle and what it means to you

Friday, 18 May 2018

Readers will know for that since the global business cycle turned eight years old in 2017 I’ve been on end-of-cycle watch. This position is based upon the simple history of US business cycles which average eight years. Our own cycle is now very long in the tooth:

For several years I have also looked to the US as the most likely trigger for the bust and corporate debt in particular as its been driven ever higher by low interest rates and capital management strategies.

Via John Mauldin today comes a fulsome warning that that process is nearing its unavoidable conclusion:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.