And excellent piece from FFWiley on the US business cycle:
Media coverage of most business-cycle indicators waxes and wanes with changes in the economy, but so far in 2018, the yield curve indicator is all wax. It seems like everyone has something to say about the yield curve slope, and many commentators are jumping from a flatter curve to a growing risk of recession
Even central bankers have joined in, with a recent article from the San Francisco Fed declaring that “the term spread is by far the most reliable predictor of recessions.”
But is the yield curve really a cause for alarm?
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Even central bankers have joined in, with a recent article from the San Francisco Fed declaring that “the term spread is by far the most reliable predictor of recessions.”
