New Zealand Economy

Goldman Sachs has released modelling on New Zealand’s housing market, which forecasts huge declines in both dwelling construction and house prices on the back of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) aggressive monetary tightening, alongside the lagged impact of macroprudential tightening.

Economist Tony Alexander has released a note running through various factors that he believes signals that the downward leg of the New Zealand house price cycle has reached its endgame.

Last week, ASB released its Housing Confidence Survey, which showed that Kiwi “housing confidence has finally cracked”, with confidence collapsing to a 13-year low in response to rising mortgage rates and heavy price falls: With the housing downturn now plain to see, and house prices around 8% off their peaks, confidence is finally crumbling.

Yesterday’s shocking retail sales data has economists worried that New Zealand is heading into recession.

ASB’s latest Housing Confidence Survey shows that Kiwis “housing confidence has finally cracked”, with confidence falling to a 13-year low amid rising mortgage rates and heavy price falls: With the housing downturn now plain to see, and house prices around 8% off their peaks, confidence is finally crumbling.

CoreLogic analysis shows that pockets of negative equity are beginning to emerge across New Zealand. Wellington has the greatest share of first home buyers (FHB) in negative equity, with 38% of FHBs that purchased during the final three months of 2021 currently underwater. This is followed by Waikato (10%), Gisborne (9%) and Auckland (4%).

July was undoubtedly a shocker for New Zealand’s housing market, with a broad spectrum of data showing tumbling prices, swelling stock, and/or plummeting sales.

BRANZ and Pacifecon have published their 10th annual National Construction Pipeline Report, which shows that New Zealand residential construction is expected to fall by more than one-third, or $11 billion, to $19.6 billion per year over the next five years.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) today hiked the official cash rate (OCR) by another 0.5% – the fourth consecutive double rate hike.

Prominent economist Tony Alexander has released a new report arguing that “fear of overpaying” (FOOP) is behind the collapse in home sales and the ballooning in listings across New Zealand.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has released its House Price Index (HPI) July, which registered a 1.4% decline over the month, a 4.9% fall over the quarter, and a 2.9% decrease year-on-year: The number of residential property sales also plummeted by 37% over the year to July.

Last week, Roy Morgan Research reported that Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party had clawed its way back into contention for next year’s election, after New Zealand Opposition leader, Chris Luxon, lied about holidaying in Hawaii.

Independent economist Tony Alexander’s monthly Spending Plans Survey is out, which shows that New Zealand households plan to cut back on their spending amid soaring interest rates and inflation.

Prominent economist Tony Alexander has released new survey datasets on New Zealand’s housing market, which have been summarised below.

It is never a good idea to go to Hawaii and then “lie” about it (or at least have your social media lackeys post that you’re back in the homeland when you’re actually on a Hawaiian beach!).

I reported yesterday how realestate.co.nz registered heavy house price falls across New Zealand, with the national average asking price of properties listed for sale plunging 8.8% from its January peak.

New Zealand’s June house price results were a complete wipeout.

Roy Morgan has released its New Zealand consumer confidence survey for July.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has released mortgage data, which shows that buyer demand has well and truly collapsed.

New Zealand house prices are tanking.