Jacinda Ardern rises from political ashes after Hawaiian gaffe

It is never a good idea to go to Hawaii and then “lie” about it (or at least have your social media lackeys post that you’re back in the homeland when you’re actually on a Hawaiian beach!).

That’s what New Zealand’s Opposition leader Chris Luxon did, and it has seen his National Party surrender a gaping election winning lead to Jacinda Ardern’s Labour, according to Roy Morgan.

As shown in the next chart, National’s primary vote tanked 4% in July, whereas Labour’s rebounded 0.5%:

New Zealand voting intentions

New Zealand election now on a knife edge.

Moreover, the lead for a potential National/Act NZ (46%) coalition over the governing Labour/Greens government (44.5%) is now at just 1.5% points.

The results this month, therefore, have next year’s election on a knife edge.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, explained the results as follows:

“The decision by Opposition leader Christopher Luxon to take a family holiday to Hawaii during mid-July is understandable during the depth of a New Zealand winter. However, for Luxon’s social media to post videos of Luxon claiming to be ‘In Te Puke, the heart of kiwifruit country’ while he was holidaying in Hawaii has been labelled as a ‘debacle’ by media commentators”.

“The mishandling of Christopher Luxon’s family holiday and the related social media posts brings to the fore the key issues of trust and distrust in driving support for political leaders”.

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has built her leadership on being the person New Zealanders can trust to deal with challenges as varied as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Christchurch shooting and various natural disasters to strike the country such as the eruption of the White Island volcano”.

“If Christopher Luxon’s missteps in recent weeks result in people distrusting the National Leader and questioning his honesty, or the honesty of the team around him, he will come under renewed scrutiny as an alternative Prime Minister heading towards next year’s election”.

One wonders if Chris Luxon has taken political advice from former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, whose silly decision to take a Hawaiian holiday during the 2019-20 bushfires damaged his trust among voters.

Through stupidity, Luxton has just dealt Jacinda Ardern back into the 2023 election race.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      It’s not the same without Robbie in’it?

      House price freeze now!

      PS no pollie should ever go to Hawaii again. Have they not learned?

  1. The Travelling PhantomMEMBER

    What’s with Hawaii and conservatives?
    Start with scomo in the middle of bushfire and now this bloke…who will be next going , totes??

  2. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    What lessons are Australian Liberal Party and New Zealand National Party politicians learning from the United States ? …

    Is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis the likely Republican Presidential Candidate in 2024 ? …

    … ‘ The War On The West ‘ author Doughlas Murray explains on Sky News Australia …

    Reason why Donald Trump ‘won’t run’ in 2024 … Douglas Murray on Sky News Australia … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XPMxq_Q8LY

    Former US President Donald Trump will not run for the 2024 presidential election if he does not believe he can win the Republican nomination, author Douglas Murray says.

    “He’ll run if he thinks he can get the nomination and then win and if he doesn’t think that then he won’t run,” Mr Murray said.

    Mr Murray said Mr Trump has a “main challenger” in Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for the GOP primary.

    Mr DeSantis is “now on an even pegging with Donald Trump among Republican voters and in some polls he’s actually shown superseding Donald Trump,” he said.

    Ron DeSantis – Official Website

    https://rondesantis.com/

    Ron DeSantis – Wikipedia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_DeSantis

    National should be well ahead of the current NZ Labour government with the ‘bread and butter’ issues (general inflation … housing inflation) being … by a country mile … the major concerns of the public according to Ipsos …

    17th Ipsos NZ Issues Monitor – June 2022

    https://www.ipsos.com/en-nz/17th-ipsos-nz-issues-monitor-june-2022

  3. Decisions like these leave you wondering about not just that person’s judgement, but also those advising them. HTF do you expect to go on an overseas holiday and expect to get away with telling the public that you’re really at home? Didn’t SOMEONE pipe up with “this is really, really dumb and 100% guaranteed to blow up in your face!”

    Either way it points to a level of moral stupidity or a massive level of arrogance.

  4. It’s NZ, you can’t say you’re away on social media or you’ll get your house done over.
    That said its poor optics.
    I assume they go there to hang out with Obama …

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    The number of new homes being built in Auckland down about 10.6% from last year’s peak … Greg Ninness … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/property/117050/building-industry-disruptions-reduced-construction-new-homes-auckland-106-over-june

    Collapse in residential construction sentiment highlights another gloomy ANZ Business Outlook Survey … David Hargreaves … Interest Co NZ

    https://www.interest.co.nz/business/116935/collapse-residential-construction-sentiment-highlights-another-gloomy-anz-business

    New Zealand house prices see fastest drop since GFC, but first homebuyers still shut out of market … Eva Colett … The Guardian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/03/new-zealand-house-prices-see-fastest-drop-since-gfc-but-first-homebuyers-still-shut-out-of-market

    Housing Crisis – Government Must Get Out Of The Way … New Zealand Taxpayers Union … Scoop NZ News

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2208/S00054/housing-crisis-government-must-get-out-of-the-way.htm

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Kāinga Ora’s ‘huge upfront payment’ clinched its purchase of Ferncliffe Farms … Kate MacNamara … NZ HERALD
    … behind paywall …

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kainga-oras-huge-upfront-payment-clinched-its-purchase-of-ferncliffe-farms/LDD2ERPEZRAA5XIOB7CUILWRCY/

    The Government’s winning $70.4 million offer for rural land known as Ferncliffe Farms trumped private sector bids because it constituted a “huge upfront payment” with no conditions to mitigate risk, sources close to the process have told the Herald.

    The 95-hectare rural property on the fringe of Tauranga City requires rezoning by the local council before it can be developed for housing.

    The highest private sector bids for the property entailed payments structured over a number of years, with final payouts triggered by milestones including council agreement to rezoning and reaching financial terms for infrastructure connections, including waste, drinking and stormwater.

    Such structured deals are a common way in which developers mitigate the risk they take that local councils will refuse or delay the rezoning of rural land and render it unfeasible for development inside a particular time horizon.

    However, the government housing agency Kāinga Ora forewent such risk mitigation in its purchase of Ferncliffe late last year.

    In order to outbid private sector developers, the agency obtained two valuations for the land, both of which were likely to inflate its value, and one of which made the “significant and special assumption” that rezoning was already achieved.

    Critics, including opposition parties National and Act, say the case illuminates how the Government is using taxpayer funds to bid up land prices, unnecessarily baking additional cost into the “affordable” homes it hopes to build. … behind paywall … read more via hyperlink above …

    Rents need to fall $100 a week to create real affordability, advocate says … Susan Edmunds … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/300655004/rents-need-to-fall-100-a-week-to-create-real-affordability-advocate-says

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