Note: This is part 1 of a 2-part series on trading and valuing the big four Australian banks. Part 2 shall be forthcoming soon. Fellow equities blogger Sell on News completed an excellent thematic post on the bubble like growth of the finance industry recently. In the face of a likely change in how capital
With global markets facing a period of sustained uncertainty, it is worth taking a longer perspective, comparing the current conditions with the so-called “Goldilocks” economy that existed just prior to the GFC. It turned out then to be a case of all the three bears instead of Goldilocks, but at the time things seemed robust
It’s a scary and volatile world at the moment: floods, cyclones, earthquakes, tsunamis, US housing crashes, Aussie housing bubbles, the GFC, QEII, PIIGS, Japanese debt, revolution in the Middle East and Charlie Sheen. As the Chinese curse goes, we are living in interesting times. So what’s a bear to do? I’ve never been the “head
Today’s strong uptrend in almost all risk markets is not that surprising. In trader’s parlance, this may just be a “dead cat’s bounce“. Sorry for the awful terminology, but there it is. This broad correction offers both risks and opportunities for trader’s and investor’s alike. For the latter, it offers excellent buying opportunities in “Very
Given the enormity of what is happening in Japan, it seems a little trivial to be tracking the possible effects on Australian shares. The greatest concern will be the long term impacts on the world’s third largest economy and one of the power houses of the Asian region. Japan is a heavy consumer of Australian
Summary The S&P/ASX200 index closed 1.16 per cent lower to 4,644.8 points today, finishing a bad week for local stocks (if you are a buy and hoper). The index is down 3.94% for the week and just over 6% since the highs in February. Asinine commentary aside, justifiable fears are weighing on global markets, particularly
Well that didn’t take long – the ASX200 has corrected again this morning, with an intraday level at 4714 points. Readers may have noticed that I am still wrong about a possible rally! In my last regular weekly analysis I did mention however: But basic charting analysis suggests a more bearish stance: a classic head
After a quick holiday across the pond in NZ (luckily not near Christchurch), your blogger returned to Australia to the news that West Australia Newspaper Holdings (WAN) is going to buy the Seven Media Group from Seven Group Holdings (SVM). So a WA media monopoly is marrying the TV sideshow of a Caterpillar servicing business. I can’t wait to see their kids.
Amidst the heat and confusion about the carbon price, it does seem increasingly likely that some sort of tax will be applied. What does it mean for stocks? “Don’t know yet,” is the commonest answer, and not unreasonably so. But it is likely to hit the big emitters. The steel companies, BlueScope Steel and OneSteel
Having read with fear, bordering on terror, the percipient Houses and Holes’ blog Sell Signal, I am struck by how different broking analysis is from H&H’s dire world of lightning strikes and imminent turmoil. Grains, H&H informs us, may be decoupling. Metals are getting “smashed”. Wheat may be a give away. But none of that
Weekly Summary Apologies for not posting my regular end-week summary, but this blogger is feeling the combined effects of moving house and re-valuing the avalanche of HY earnings reports. What follows is my analysis from last week but with notes on today’s correction and what it may mean looking ahead for the rest of this
Investors in Macquarie Group might wish to avoid an article in The Economist, entitled “Can investment banks make high enough returns on equity to exist?” They may also consider it appropriate not to look to closely to Macquarie’s fundamentals. The gist of the argument is that investment banks will be “clobbered” by the new Basel 3 rules. For most types
There has been an interesting debate going on amongst some of my fellow bloggers in recent days about the meagre future return potential of stocks in developed markets. The return prospects for the US look particularly cloudy. And this is important, because as Sell on News noted today, the US still dominates the global markets
When it comes to investing in shares, Australians love paying high prices for former government-owned monoliths. And the love affair continues as Qantas (QAN) released its half years results with a headline $417 million underlying profit, before tax. The economic commentariat gave mixed reviews, with Royal Bank of Scotland saying the result was reasonable whilst
