Australian Shares

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Getting a share pick wrong doesn’t mean losing

In effective investment you need liquidity, risk management and diversification. What is immediately appealing (but also a trap) with shares is how you can very easily buy a dozen or even 100 companies and sell them at a stroke of a keyboard, or in any size parcel, when required (usually – there’s always caveats). There

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Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Most of the traders I follow on Twitter gave up the game today, partly because Japanese markets were

20

The great Australian stock/bond divergence

While I was on holidays in Fiji recently I read a book about the Archimedes Palimpsest which was my first real exposure to the study of Archimedean and Greek mathematics outside of school. It really was fascinating but in the context of markets and the economy I was struck by the quote attributed to him about leverage:

4

Guzzling gas

The supply of LNG is likely to surge dramatically over the next few years as shale gas comes on stream. This is unlikely to substantially threaten current supplies, but it has to cast some kind of question over what will happen to prices in the future. So the sale by Woodside of 14.7% of Browse for $2 billion represents

3

Trading Day – its easing for the ASX

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. In case you were on Mars today (or sometimes you wish you were, looking at the caliber of

9

Trading Day – Megabank overbought

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Another mixed day across Asian markets, with equity markets all over the place, commodities flat, currencies pushing the

4

Where is the EPS growth?

It is interesting to compare the margin and profit situation of the Australian and American stock markets. In America, margins and profits are strong but companies are relcutant to invest without a strong economic pick up. In Australia, a supposedly much stronger economy, margins are tightening and earnings growth is non-existent. This is pointed out in a Macquarie report today:

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Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A quick update today – its Friday after all!  Another relatively slow day across Asian markets, until this

19

Moody’s puts QBE on negative watch

This afternoon, Moody’s placed QBE on negative watch.  QLMI was one of several reasons and not the most prominent. The stock sailed through the announcement unscathed.  It is worth noting, however, that if the parent is downgraded, it’s hard to see QLMI not suffering the same fate, and perhaps precipitating capital tops ups all around. Rationale below: Moody’s affirms debt ratings

14

Trading Day: Seven West goes south

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A slow data day across Asian markets, that basically began and ended with the New Zealand Reserve Bank

0

Coal and Coles

After the uninspiring Woolworths result, all eyes were on Wesfarmers and its coal/Coles. Brokers were generally pretty neutral; not convinced that the Coles result implied a re-rating. A “good result” but in line with expectations. It does at least reassure over the dividend, estimated to be about 5%. Goldman is one of the more bullish with

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Trading Day: D is for Deflation

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. In case you were vacationing on Mars today, the big mover was the CPI (consumer price index) print,

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Broking miners

Things are a bit quiet in analyst land, the chatter is a bit faint. So attention is turning to some of the resources and energy stocks. Deutsche has a buy on gold miner Medusa Mining, estimating that its earnings multiple will fall from 15.3 times this financial year to 6.2 times next financial year. On the face of it

17

Where are the ETF’s?

A recent chat with new MacroBusiness blogger Prometheus had me thinking about the problems surrounding the so-called “retail” investment space in Australia. As professional investors, Prometheus and I have access – or a willingness more like it – to advanced tools and products that turn macro analysis into actionable ideas into (hopefully) profit. For the

43

Deflationary spiral sucks in Woolies

Woolworths (WOW) announced third quarter FY2012 sales recently, with a 3.8% headline increase, or 3.3% excluding fuel. Importantly the comparative sales number was 0.0% with average price deflation at 4.4% in 3Q12. As exlained in a rather downbeat note from Macquarie Equities today – entitled “deflation or competition to blame?” – this comparative figure puts

2

Boral another victim of housing melt

Boral (BLD) announced to the market this morning a significant cut to its full year profit guidance, with Q1 2012 NPAT (net profit after tax) down to$22 million, due to “a number of variables” – namely weak housing activity in QLD and NSW, but as with Stockland’s (SGP) recent warning, the impact of heavy weather

9

Gold is cheap

The relationship between the gold price and the performance of gold stocks is always volatile. In theory gold stocks should outperform when the physical metal is rising, a sort of amplification play. In practice, no such certainties apply, principally because there are operational issues to consider, plus often unknowns in terms of the reserves. It is thus firmly in the

8

Trading Day – MQG stairway to heaven

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. A very bullish day on Asian markets, which accelerated in the post-lunch afternoon trading session, with Chinese markets

11

A hole for your stocking? (updated)

The underperformance of the two mining giants – BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO) – is a big factor in the weak performance of the Australian market overall. Deutsche Bank has a buy on RIO, and a price target of $101, which would take it back to the levels before the company’s self inflicted

6

Dividends for bulls and bears

In this post I want to compare the difference in dividends in a secular bull and bear market, using the Japanese Nikkei 225 and Australian All Ords Index, where an example of each condition occurred over roughly the same period. Here’s the chart of nominal performance of the indices, where the secular differences are stark

23

Housing melt claims Genworth IPO

Genworth have announced a “new timing” for its planned IPO (initial public offering) of its Australian mortgage insurance business. The release, which is attached below, claims the move, planned for the second quarter of 2012 but now pushed back to “early 2013” reflected “recent business performance in Australia”: For the 2012 first quarter, the company

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Trading Day – no ones going to RIO

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Asian markets started fairly well this morning before the midday trade in China moved most quote screens into

15

Trading Day: the return of Telstra?

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. Not much

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Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. In a

7

Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. The S&P/ASX200 finally put

6

Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. The S&P/ASX200 closed down

4

Buying Dr Copper

The cliche is that copper has a PhD in economics, that it is a bellwether for economic trends. So investment tends to be as much a reflection of assessment of sentiment and economic conditions as stock picking. Deutsche is advising that cost pressures are likely to rise at 5-10% per annum, and that low cost operators should be the

4

Trading Day

Trading Day covers the relevant moves in the Asian stock, commodity, debt and currency markets including a review of the top 8 Australian stocks – the top 4 miners and banks, highlighting trading ideas and investment opportunities. Remember to read “Trading Week“, published each Saturday morning, to put these events and ideas in context. The S&P/ASX200

6

Shares to recover on confidence, not earnings

The Australian share market has been a disappointment from about half a decade, which is not what you woudl expect for one of the best performing developed economies in the wake of the GFC. A Deutsche Bank report (find below) argues that the low price earnings rating for Australia is due to a lack of