Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

There’s a more positive mood across Asia today due to Wall Street brushing aside any concerns about WW3 overnight, as the USD holds firmer across the board. The long wait to the February RBA meeting is seeing probability of a cut rising in the wake of poor macro data and the upcoming slashing of the surplus, while Bitcoin is breaking out to new high, briefly breaking the $8000 point barrier.

The Shanghai Composite is pushing higher after its recent scratch session, currently up 0.6% to 3104 points, while the Hang Seng Index has gained 0.5% to 28360 points, taking back its recent losses and providing a more sustainable trendline after late last week’s exuberance:

Japanese share markets are also in the money as Yen selling pushes them higher with the Nikkei 225 almost taking back its start of week losses to be up 1.6% to 23575 points. The USDJPY pair continues its nice little swing play higher after its deceleration move on the Monday open and is heading into the mid 108’s as European traders come to their desk and weigh some key data:

The ASX200 was a standout again, lifting more than expected to close 1.3% higher to 6826 points.  The Australian dollar is slowly decelerating into the low 69’s as the four hourly chart is building to a bullish falling wedge pattern that could break violently either way:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are suggesting further gains tonight with the S&P500 looking to retest its previous and very recent all time record high as the ramifications of a war with Iran are brushed aside like yesterday’s news:

The economic calendar ramps up properly tonight with the EZ CPI and retail sales print data, followed by the US ISM services report for December, all of which will be very USD-sensitive.

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  1. btw – on my second glass of Tamburlaine Reserve Syrah 2018. Waiting for my son and his girlfriend to arrive for dinner – my Christmas today.

    • Have you watched ‘The Loudest Voice’s. It is a show about Roger Ailes and the creation of the Fox News network. What kept amusing me is how timid and moderate they make Rupert appear in it. It is as if he was this naive enabler of Roger and his political agenda.

  2. If you look at average IQ by country, China has an average of 105 while the US has an average of 98. So it is true that China has smarter people compared to the US. At least, according to thee following website:

    That whole IQ thingy …. snicker ….

    Anywho we have IQ and then IE but I hear then new toast of the town in C-corps is IA = adaptability … and here I thought the old term malleability was a more concise term.

      • I would couch that differently and say environmental biases screw heads on backwards regardless of IQ et al. See recent examples on this site about well educated people in royal science jobs being young earth types or numerous historical examples of high IQ people join cults Heavens gate, Scientology, Dominionism – Theonomy – Reconstructionism. Seems the latter few are quite infulential in the U.S. and here at the moment, some then wonder why things seem so surreal.

        • Trained or indoctrinated?

          People that don’t understand theory and rely on ex ante axioms, then use some Scientism via bad maths and physics are too trained? Not to mention missing the GFC, I mean rational agent models had no fraud input and a strange resemblance to the BioShock game outcome, nor any fuctional model of the monetary or financial system … But Hay … Milton got a freedom and liberty medal to prove his special mental powers.

      • In the MMT case its mostly challenging past assumed views and ones perception based on them, but I remember an old youtube video where persons on the street were asked what money was and they either had no clue or resonances were so mangled its was hilarious. Yet as noted above some have been driving wedges for ages to end Government that does not advance their cause.

      • Yeah the maths on the dead in endless wars let alone psychological ramifications down the road for generations is the kinda IQ Von Newman, McNamara, Kissinger and Cheney would respect.

    • Australia already has the answer. If you burn enough trees the smoke blocks the sun across the earth. Plant more trees to reabsorb the carbon and burn the f*ckers down again.

    • Such an American “solution”. They treat the environment like their health. Shove sugar, fat and salt down their throats then down a cocktail of drugs to keep their cholesterol and blood pressure down. This is no different.

  3. AUD taking a beating so far this year. Must be those fires…….and no wage growth….. and falling job ads…..

  4. Gotta love the looong prayers for the AUD to crash … bit of a mix between a payday past due and desire for beliefs to manifest so the faithful don’t go schizoid.

    • Nah it’s more that my house settlement is due in Feb and I have $USD and Euro to convert to $AUD before then. So I want it lower lower as it will make a few thousand dollars difference and may know months or a year off of my home loan…

      Yes yes selfish I know, just like every home owning Aussie. It’s all about me me me and equity mate.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        If you were a real Australian you’d have bought, sorry, invested, in an investment property too. Mate.

        • I’ll work on it, will sell all my cars and buy a tinderbox and shove 20 vibrants in 10 bunks in it and 3 bedrooms. 🙂

      • aud is on the nose now. you are one employment shocker away from getting 65c when converting in Feb.

      • Its not about that Gav, its about those that wish it because of the emotional discomfort they experience, because something does not function as they think it should.

        • You mean like the housing market? Add me to the list of those who have experienced discomfort. What goes up is supposed to come down they say in physics. Except the Aussie housing market, it goes from boom to small bust, to more intense boom. It certainly messes with you and did my head in.

          • Whats is this thing you call a housing market, is it anything like the mythical labour market?

          • Well it’s not a free market, it’s a rigged and manipulated market. That’s my point. 🙂

          • What ever gave you the idea that any market was free in an almost human application of the term.