Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian stock markets remain in light volume mode, which always increases the risk of volatility, especially to the downside where selloffs were the order of the day. The USD was still weaker, in particular against gold which ran up to a three month high above $1520 USD per ounce.

The Shanghai Composite is up just a handful of points to consoldiate above the long held 3000 point resistance level, while the Hang Seng Index took back its previous gains to close half a percent lower at 28189 points as it remains above the previous October highs:

Japanese share markets were closed while the USDJPY pair gapped lower again and continued to selloff, breaking down below the 109 handle and looking hugely oversold going into the City open:

The ASX200 had a shocker to finish the year – mainly due to end of year window dressing – falling by nearly 2% to closed out at 6684 points, while the stubbornly high Australian dollar is peaking above the 70 handle, where it looks set to break and then get into seriously overbought territory:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are flat going into the European open with the S&P500 four hourly chart showing price poised here above the former resistance level at 3200 points as the bullish trend channel was  broken overnight, where this stretched market could retrace further tonight in a truncated session:

The economic calendar is obviously quite stark tonight given its the end of the year!

See you next trading year!

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • No idea if he writes sci-fi but I saw an interview with him and his DeLorean and Han Solo in Carbonite in his study.
      Used to see his DeLorean about in Sydney. But haven’t seen it in a couple of years. Says he’s in LA now so may explain why.

    • If you haven’t already read him, Greg Egan can be pretty mind-blowing. Especially Quarantine, set in a place called “New Hong Kong,” which, if memory serves, is what somewhere in the north-end of Australia (Darwin?) becomes after some mass migration event from Asia wherein the new immigrants bring their energy/intellect/technology/ingenuity to build a new city (country?) in a place where no one else thought it was possible for climate/environmental reasons. (This is nothing to do with the story though. Just interesting background.)

      Permutation City is also fantastic.

      Some other of Egan’s stuff maybe not so great so I would start with those two.

      And Max Barry has written a few so-so books but his Machine Man is freaking brilliant. (Not specifically set in Australia though. Just an Aussie author.)

  1. Just watching the ABC reports on the bushfire emergencies that are unprecedented, then the broadcast switched to people flocking to see the fireworks in Sydney. Could not help thinking we have become a very sick community, anything goes as long as profit is involved. Sydney City Council, shame on you.

    • I kind of get the CoS council decision though. If 90%+ of the costs have already been spent (as they claim), and if so much of the local council constituency relies on income earned from tonight, then their duty is to their constituents.

      Now, could they have turned every single fireworks viewing spot into a massive donation collection centre for the RFS and charities helping all those affected ? Yes. And that’s an opportunity missed if they haven’t don’t that.

    • Same thing on ch 9. Go from people gets burned to death to fuckwits drinking champagne wearing 2019 glasses. Sickening

    • When Hausfather’s team set pollution inputs in Hansen’s model to correspond to actual historical levels, its projected temperature increases lined up with observed temperatures.

      Uh oh. Maybe the scientific method can be applied to climate science after all.

      • Yet some think all models are rubbish because they don’t even understand how the inputs are arrived at, say Royal Science models vs Economic – Market models, don’t think environmental models start off with ex ante descriptors concocted by ideological shaman and then converted with bad maths and physics in to data which gets the washing machine treatment – no human agency thingy.

        Lmmao one could argue that orthodox models is more about – results of the test subjects – in “conforming” to the expectations of the ex ante dicta, rather than any relevance to “natural state” of the human condition – especially wrt the environment it operates in E.g. not steady state.

        But yeah … some seem completely devoted to the notion that any determinism [tm] is ev’bal except divine determinism, because that is how winnars and looosers are determined [tm] and that is all that matters in the “long run”.