Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

There’s a lot to digest for risk markets starting the trading week here in Asia with the return of Japanese traders to their desks adding to the volatility. Gold got an awesome bid in the morning, gapping some $20 higher to a near seven year high, as other risk proxies and safe havens reacted to the ongoing tensions between Iran and the US. Oil prices have also leaped to a yearly high, while stock markets are playing catchup with the weekend news.

The Shanghai Composite is slowly melting higher, currently up 0.3% to 3093 points, building well above the previously long held 3000 point resistance level, while the Hang Seng Index has slipped 0.5% to 28305 points, getting back to a more sustainable trendline after late last week’s exuberance:

Japanese share markets finally reopened for the new year but due to the downside move in the positively correlated USDJPY pair and the general volatile mood, both major bourses dropped nearly 2% with the Nikkei 225 losing 1.9% to 23195 points. The USDJPY pair gapped lower on the Monday open but has recovered to be just over the 108 handle going into the City open where its likely to hit overhead resistance at the former weekly support level at 108.40:

The ASX200 is the best in the region but only due to a scratch session, not moving at all as markets react to ScottfromMarketing’s “nah mate don’t care about surplus” givings this afternoon in response to the fire crisis. The local bourse closed at 6735 points.   The Australian dollar remains stuck well below the 70 handle, matching the Friday night session lows and literally on the ropes here:

Both S&P and Eurostoxx futures are suggesting volatile sessions tonight with the former gapping much lower so expect some big movement on Wall Street tonight as the ramifications of a war with Iran start to sink in:

The economic calendar starts the week with only minor releases, namely final PMI prints for manufacturing and services across Europe and the US.

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  1. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Locus of Control.
    Do you remember putting out grass fires with a wet hessian bag like we used to do?

  2. Anecdote: My friend’s Chinese wife is an RE agent specialising in Chinese foreign purchases. After struggling to sell properties for many months she ended November with nothing left to sell. All sold to wealthy Hong Kong looking to GTFO..

    • Hong Kong is finished as a global city with independent institutions. There are 100k Australian citizens there, many of who will be returning, and probably 3x that number with Australian PR. The numbers are very big and will have a material effect on desirable property.

      The movement of money out pre 1997 handover was just a practice for the real thing which is happening now.

      • Or potentially they are smart enough not to move back ………just somewhere without braindead politicians, numberwang, and the RBA and it’s rosy view of Australia’s future. plus many more

    • Tell them to bring some water and face mask oops scratch the mask as this is normal aparal water definitely water

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      None that they developed themselves. If I were them though I’d be trying to get them a quickly as possible.

      No matter how despicable your regime they will have seen that when you have nukes Trump has no problem breaking with decades of diplomatic strategy and telling the world how great you are on TV, certainly won’t risk confrontation either.

      • one would think so but also it could be calculated risk where US would expect Iraq to kick them out. This way Trump gets what he wants – US troops out of Iraq and strategically will have to leave Syria too.
        Time will tell.

      • Narapoia451MEMBER

        Which would indicate to me they don’t have nukes yet, the US doesn’t risk fighting anyone that can realistically fight back or retaliate with nuclear weapons.

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    A 14-year-old kid has been filming what happens at an evacuation centre to keep himself occupied and to show the world what’s happening. He gets threatened for it. WTF is wrong with this country?

    Maybe it’s because Tegan George was retweeting his videos. She’s the one who interviewed the Cobargo girl who annoyed Scummo and was ordered out of an evacuation centre herself by police.

    • Powers that be want to suppress images of angry people emerging from evacuation centers. It makes for bad PR for Scummo and compromises his ability to deliver for the interests he serves.

  4. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    If you haven’t already, you need to watch Ricky Gervais opening speech from the golden globes.

    He lays into Hollywood, calls them all Epstein’s friends, and is hilarious

  5. There’s only one way to make bushfires less powerful: take out the stuff that burns … Prof Rod Keenan, University of Melbourne … The Conversation

    As monstrous blazes overwhelm Australia’s south-east, the need for a national bushfire policy has never been more urgent. Active land management such as hazard-reduction burning and forest thinning must lie at the core of any such policy.

    Done well, controlled burning limits a bushfire’s spread and makes suppression easier, by reducing the amount of flammable material. Clearing or thinning vegetation on roadsides and other areas also helps maintain fuel breaks, allowing firefighters access to forests in an emergency.

    As former fire chiefs recently pointed out, of all factors driving a fire’s severity – temperature, wind speed, topography, fuel moisture and fuel load – fuel load is the only one humans can influence.

    The royal commission into Victoria’s Black Saturday bushfires identified serious shortcomings in land and fuel management, primarily the domain of the states. Ten years ago I also called for a national approach to bushfires, including vegetation management.

    Relatively little has changed since. It is as though Australia suffers collective and institutional amnesia when it comes to bushfire preparedness. But the threat will only escalate. Australia must have a sustained commitment to better land management. … read more via hyperlink above …
    The Shocking Size of the Australian Wildfires … Katherine Buchholz … Statista