Australian Shares

By Chris Becker  The risk complex is in short termism mode as nobody was ready to keep surging equity prices higher overnight, with Wall Street eventually slipping into the red and setting up for some confused options on the open here in Asia today.

Stocks are up across the region, except locally where traders forgot to fill their buy orders later in the afternoon as the RBA held back on its last rate cut, giving no forecasts for what’s coming down the “V” for vacuous recovery.

From Macquarie: “Given the strong free cash flow yields on our forecasts and at spot prices, we believe the iron ore miners should continue to pay healthy dividends.” “The 12-month forward yield is 3 per cent for S32, 7 per cent for BHP, 8 per cent for Rio and 14 per cent for Fortescue.

The excellent Adrian Blundell-Wignall addressing MB, I think, at the AFR: I have been surprised at just how negative some economists are about COVID-19.

By Chris Becker  The inability of markets to understand mathematics – i.e the exponential function – continued overnight with a gorging of buying in stocks, culminating in 7% plus sessions on Wall Street even as the number of dead Americans pile up across the continent.

Everything is awesome as markets rally in ecstasy in response to the record breaking US unemployment figures from Friday, and the slowdown in the rate of growth of COVID-19 cases outside the US.

Magellan has reported its FUM flows for March: From a peak at the end of January, FUM is down roughly 11% (extracted from flows).

Like he did in the European crisis when he told everyone to sell right at the bottom?

First, it was Morgan Stanley on the economy: Disruptions to economic activity have become increasingly pervasive as social distancing measures and closures of nonessential businesses have spread across the country.

The Australian dollar had added a few pips this morning: Bonds are a little soft: Stocks to the moon as Trump moves from vague guff about oil to vague guff about more stimulus cheques: Big Iron is convinced that global depression can’t hurt it.

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw the release of the latest US unemployment figures following two weeks of epically bad initial jobless claims, with over 700,000 jobs officially lost although its expected to be much higher given the exponential rate of decline in the “land of the free”.

Another down day for Asian stock markets as local markets erase the one-off blip on Wall Street overnight as oil prices come back slightly and USD strengthens against Yen and gold.

Via Saxo: Summary: With all the major central banks expected to be effectively zero bound in 2020, the scope for returns in bonds will be low for years to come.

The AUD is up as usual in Asian trade: Bonds are pulling back on oil: XJO is up: Tracking Big Iron which still looks like a sitting duck: Big Gas is running with El Trumpo’s oil rumourtage.

By Chris Becker  Last night saw the return of risk despite another record blowout in unemployment claims in the US, where daily deaths from COVID-19 are now well over 1000.

Another down day for Asian stock markets as local markets finally catch-up to the runoff in risk around the region, as USD strengthens a little across the majors, including gold which slipped further.

The Australian dollar is up few pips this morning: Bonds are strong: XJO has gapped much of yesterday’s inexplicable surge: Big Iron is down.

By Chris Becker  As the TrumpVirus becomes exponential, stocks were again the hardest hit overnight as risk shifted away from commodity currencies as well, with already record low bond yields dropped further in the wake of the crisis.

Another volatile day for Asian stock markets with a clear divergence between external hesistion and internal delusion as the ASX200 continues to be bid higher.

Via The Australian: Veteran fund manager Geoff Wilson has warned that “everything is on the table” when the government looks for ways to pay for its massive spending spree to support the economy in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Australian dollar is still soft this morning: Bonds are bid out the wazoo: Sometimes the Australian stupidity premium can make a few dollars.

By Chris Becker  So the first quarter of 2020 is over – doesn’t it feel like a year already?

A volatile day for local stocks while other Asian bourses were very unsteady following the broad gains on Wall Street overnight.

Via Goldman: “After a swift 18% rally [last week], the most common investor question was ‘has a new bull market started ?’” Goldman analysts, led by David Kostin, wrote.

The Australian dollar is soft: Bonds are still firm if off a little: Stocks to the moon!