Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Everything is awesome as markets rally in ecstasy in response to the record breaking US unemployment figures from Friday, and the slowdown in the rate of growth of COVID-19 cases outside the US. In other words, this is probably the eye of the storm before the Trumpvirus goes South, literally. Speculation of a deal between OPEC and Russia on oil production is juicing the oil market as well, adding to risk appetite while the USD has weakened slightly although against Yen its still running strong.

The Hang Seng Index gapped higher and is set to close up 2.2% to 23754 points, finally getting above its high moving average on the daily chart, indicating a breakout is underway and ready to get back to former support at 25000:

Japanese share markets had an even bigger bounce with the Nikkei 225 closing 4% higher at 18576 points, now getting closer to resistance at the 19000 point level as the USDJPY pair continued its Friday rally, breaking through the 109 handle and making a new weekly high:

The ASX200 was the best in the region, closing 4.3% higher as domestic investors remain deluded that everything is coming back to pre-virus conditions, with banks leading the way, closing at 5286 points.  Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is still hurriedly going nowhere, although it snuck a peak above the 60 handle as support seems to be building here:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up 4% as well as everyone goes all in on a return to normal with the four hourly chart of S&P futures showing a nice big bounce off support at the 2420 point level with the resistance overhead at the previosu weekly highs at 2620 or so the target to beat:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet following the monthly US unemployment print, with some Treasury auctions the only event of note – apart from any communique from the Russians and Saudi’s regarding their oil deal. Watch that space.

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Comments

    • Nice.

      “Unemployment will only hit some sectors”

      Nevermind that that unemployment rate for the entire country is likely to double or triple. Sectors are irrelevant, Nerida.

      • The article is too optimistic as what would normally be considered “safe” sectors also being hit hard. Spoke with a dentist who has been made redundant due to the ban on non-urgent dentistry who is putting his IP up for sale – and so are most of of his colleagues. Procedural medical specialists normally on big coin are seeing revenue drops around the 90% from the elective surgery bans and applying for Jobkeeper.

    • Causing productivity issues …. 🧏🏻‍♀️🤪🚨🤷‍♀️🔭🤣👀

      The Australians Banking Assoc [sic]

  1. Mining BoganMEMBER

    This article was out there today before the NSW AirBnB thing.

    “A lot of people have over-leveraged themselves with these properties,” Lipshus says. “The upper-middle class are probably going to be fine. But the middle class – the ones taking risks, trying to get up that class ladder – they’re going to be pretty fvcked.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/apr/06/disrupting-the-disruptors-how-covid-19-will-shake-up-airbnb

    Get up the class ladder. Anyone who talks and thinks like that is already a sh!t person.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I must work with many of its cousins. Fortunately, they’re all taking it up the ***, and have been for months. Months.

      It’s a thing to behold.

    • “Lisa Porgazian and her husband have listed their three Gold Coast apartments on Airbnb for the past four years. Now the properties are empty, and the mortgage payments will come out of the couple’s superannuation. “We were relying on this for our income, as well as our retirement plan,” she says, distraught. “Now that’s completely died in the arse.”

      Porgazian, a 46-year-old former IT contractor, has been managing her property portfolio full-time. She’s unable to work in many other jobs due to rheumatoid arthritis. “I’m earning zero. My husband’s earning zero. And we’ve still got these mortgages to pay.””

      I think they were having a go.

      • This is what happens when Armenians stray away from being jewellers or mechanics.

        • Well property only goes up you see. No need to diversify, safer than Government bonds!

      • She’s been managing her portfolio full time. Considering what’s her name has chronic arthritis, managing three Air b&b’s shouldn’t be too hard to with cleaners. So how many other properties does this lady have that requires her to work on them full time?

        • Arthritis LOLOL! More like RSI as the only hard work involved in being an infestor is signing loan documents. Arthritis…..please!

          We’re going to need a steady supply of violins.

      • Can’t say I feel sorry for them. Left well paying job 4 years ago to “retire” at 42 and manage full time their ever expanding property empire. Eggs all in 1 basket. In the words of Ma Anand Sheela “Tough kitties”

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        Put money in bank. Hard times hit. You’re expected to run down your savings.

        Put money in shares. Hard times hit. You’re expected to sell shares to pay the bills.

        Put money in houses. Hard times hit. Why won’t the government bail me out (some more), I deserve it!

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Upper middle class ,middle class ?? ……FFS !……where did the great Australian egalitarianism go …………are we really heading back to upstairs downstairs ……the convict aristocracy floating on top of a sea of third world immigrants ……….time a chap got himself a few punkawallahs on the front veranda ……..eh what ?

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        In many ways that is what Australia has always been (minus the third world migrants, before it was poor convict descendants). Of course when times were tough, it was easier to pretend we were all in it together because we still had a common language, a common history (even if some were oppressors and some were victims) and they could at least pretend that those in power weren’t completely divorced from any understanding or sympathy of their plight. Even today most of the ‘upper class’ got their start by claiming land for free and then parcelling it up and selling it off for profits to those that came after or weren’t as well connected. Sounds pretty much like 21st century Australia to me.

    • Lisa Porgazian knows what people are saying. “The criticism that we’re getting is ‘well you shouldn’t have a business if you can’t pay for it’, but who ever predicted something like this?”

      FFS….. Google how often does a recession happen. Ignore coronavirus, its the trigger, but its irrelevant really.

  2. migtronixMEMBER

    Hey counterfiat – why did the self-isolationist cross the isle?
    To vote for mass immigration…

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      To vote in favour of his own no confidence motion in himself – because he’d been in self-isolation for so long he didn’t have any left?

  3. hey snappedupsavy – I was reading the latest issue of Gold Mining Journal.. there is an article about AQX.. I thought their ground was to the east of Boda but turns out to be north of Boda. I will buy few tomorrow. Without going to much into detail, my view is Boda continues to the north and as per the article it is under cover. ALK proved that much with their dd006 hole.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I never thought I’d be writing a letter to Gold Mining Journal.

      Last night after a 12 hour shift I was washing the accumulated grit off my hard exhausted body, when I heard the door to the shower open and close. Gentle but manly fingers gently plucked the soap from my trembling hand.

      “You seem tense”, a deep voice husked in my ear.

      I felt REDACTED in my REDACTED until my REDACTED started to REDACTED while REDACTED like a belt fed mortar.

      My REDACTED REDACTED was REDACTED to the point my REDACTED REDACTED was incapable of even one more REDACTED.

      I was so clean, and yet I felt so dirty.

      FCKEN.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Thanks Nikola, aqx do call their land next to ALK: Boda east. But it goes north as well, as you know I’m now a long term holder lol as I’m underwater but not by much. Boda will definitely become a mine as it’s so huge so I think ALK may buyout AQX, and could be cheap at the moment

      • I am 100% confident this baby will carry on to the north. It will require more expensive drilling as it deeps fair bit on the north side. Not sure ALK will be able to buy AQX if AQX hits something. Most likely NCM will buy both or their ground in the area.

      • just to add.. only risk for AQX is if the ore body start to arch/bend to the west as there is a fault called Sullivan Fault that could have carried this ore body to the west. Then it will all belong to ALK as it will spill into their ground.
        Actually looking at the maps, EL4022 does cover fair bit of the northern side of Boda. So for AQX to have a slice this ore body needs to spill over to the north/east.
        Have to think about.. too much wine, plus travel plans..

      • ok looked into the maps again and can see Sullivan Fault’s northern side moves to the east. Depending on the age of the ore-body and when this fault was formed there is is a chance for the ore-body to spill over AQX’s ground. ALK’s Boda discovery is only ~1km from its eastern boundary where AQX ground starts.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    So when are the people going to rise up and start fighting against our oppressing police forces?

    • BigDuke6MEMBER

      The rum corp beatings are still in the genetic makeup of the NSW people – and the armenian witch with her stasi-wannabee police chief are loving it. She’s surrounded by opus dei and they are loving the new normal. Close the pubs, clubs and restaurants of sin.

    • Your trained corps of bodacious ladies seemed the elite force to take on the oppressive state police now they are full of protein and fighting fit.

  5. The self-isolation blues.
    I was feeling lonely, so I bought some shares.
    It’s nice to have some company.

  6. some pron.. wife had a chat with someone from work he just told her that her son lost his job 2 days ago and today landlord turned up telling him he is going to increase the rent on his 1 bed apartment in Petershem. The guy lost it and told the landlord he will be leaving. Apparently he’s been renting same place for 15 years without missing single payment. And did not plan to ask for rent assistance. Landlord owns couple of buildings there..

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Bwaaahaaahaahaa because all those unemployed people really love to splash out!

      • most of the money will be spend on infrastructure and on the 1% so yes, they will bid on base metals to build staff. I do see inflation in this scenario. This is why gold price has been going up along USD and eventually will prevail. Bitcoin, along gold, could be another big winner.

    • As someone with a very modest amount of debt. J say bring on runaway inflation. We are going back to 1989 baby!

  7. Dodgy parts of the internet think China released the coronavirus as a preemptive attack on America: https://www.neonrevolt.com/2020/03/25/these-people-are-sick-qanon-confirms-coronavirus-as-a-chinese-bioweapon-greatawakening-neonrevolt/

    This is being coordinated with the Dems as the majority of Dem leadership has be purchased by the CCP for years (since Bill Clinton anyways).

    More: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/covid-19-chinas-colossal-cover

    It appears the CCP realised that Trump was winning the economic war, and it was only a matter of time before the CCP lost everything. Hence the preemptive strike to decimate everyone else’e economy but keep China’s strong.

    Could be first shot of WW3.

    This (https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-drags-china-international-court-covid-19-war) appears to be why the UNHRC move is hitting global media all over the place.

    • anything is possible. anything. so, I am not discarding any scenario here.
      but before some lunatics talk us into WW3 let’s ask for definitive evidence. What’s not to say CIA sent a mole to release the virus in Wuhan knowing well that the place has wet markets and Bio LAB.
      The only people I will call lunatics are the ones making any claims without any evidence. This is serious sh1te and people should consider consequences. Plus no one was/is screaming to compensate Iraq, of UK to compensate India and 3/4 of Africa.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        But how did it manage to get its tiny little paws around the test tube without dropping it?

    • now please stop with these things.. I am busy doing serious stuff.. explaining why I am moving to NY.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      The dumbest most qtard theory out there! The fat orange idiot could have a thousand things besides whisper “take hydroxychloroquine” – of which a large supplier just happens to linked to his son-in-law – but didn’t. So instead of stopping the spread he helped it along and… Hey presto! For your re-election extravaganza we’re going to pretend go after China instead of Hillary this time.

      Fool.

  8. migtronixMEMBER

    So the Liberals are orgasmagating on twitter about the newspoll. Which apparently sees the highest ever share of unemployed people thinking the Liberals are doing a good job.

    Lol ok…

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Scotty from Marketing has (so easily) pulled the wool over the eyes of so many gullible Strayans. Not hard to see why seriously bad people have got up throughout world history?

  9. maclennanrMEMBER

    The media was clueless about the threat of CoViD until it was too late, rinse and repeat with the financial press. People are clearly in shock if they think the obviously catastrophic economic impact of this virus is good for stocks and a momentary pause in the death rate growth is good news. Add to that, all the wrong calls Trump has made, and his deluded mutterings get reported as fact by the media. Quantitative kool-Aid!

  10. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Saw on the “ news “ tonight that some pups are selling gift cards for beers to be redeemed 2 for the price of 1 when they are open again ……..
    ….so what’s the catch ?………the price of beers to double ……the cards expire in a month and the pubs open in three ……..I know I’m cynical …..but poor old Straya has become rip off central in the last few years …so nothing would surprise me ……..

  11. By itself this is a catastrophic event for the US. But with it coinciding with the general impact of the virus it likely throws the entire US economy into a depression.

    “In the first quarter, the price of U.S. crude fell harder than at any point in history, plunging 66% to around $20 a barrel.”

    “World oil demand fell 7% in the first quarter, and is expected to fall 14% in the second quarter”.

    ” the U.S., [] pumps more crude than any other country. ”

    Though strangely the article seems to give COVID-19 much of the blame and only apportions limited responsibility to Saudi Arabia (and virtually none to Russia) towards the end.

    https://apnews.com/eea93a3132cd3a65c10017d1e5122e34

  12. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Today’s tally : 107 new cases, bringing the total to 5799, a 1.88 percent increase. With the border closed, it’s almost all community transmission now. Life will soon return to some kind of normalcy : NRL and cricket will start up again, but without spectators. Restaurants will reopen, with tables 1.5 metres apart. Toilet paper will become available from supermarket, but buying restrictions remains. Stock market is surging, I have no idea on what, but it’s surging.

    China is offering France 1 billion face mask, in exchange for Huawei 5G contract.

    https://tfipost.com/2020/04/we-will-give-you-masks-if-you-accept-huawei-5g-china-is-forcing-coronavirus-hit-countries-to-kneel-before-huawei/

    If I’m France, I would take the mask, let Huawei build the 5G network, then confiscate all Huawei asset as compensation for the virus.

    AirBnB is now illegal in NSW : this will stop those stupid landlords marketing their holiday homes in the regions as ‘Coronavirus isolation accommodation’, and also throws a bone to the hotel industry. South Australia have come up with their version of eviction memorandum for renter’s showing ‘extreme financial hardship’, whatever that means. Will be interesting to see what the other states will come up with.

    • Stock rally makes no sense. If you believe borders will be shut for up to 2 years or more. Then I don’t see anything going back to normal for some time yet.

      I still have stocks, and reading through various posts, watching 69 mins I’m tempted to offload them. I think I’m reading a lot into this sunspot prediction also. Not sure if this is a good or bad thing. But I do think the world moves in cycles.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      +1 I’m with you regarding your French proposal. Time for payback from the West on a universal basis.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      You could also make that joke about:
      Bat-and-Trap
      Blooperball – Softball with a squishy, 16-inch ball
      British Baseball – four posts
      Brännboll – four bases
      Corkball – four bases (no base-running)
      Crocker (sport)
      Danish longball
      Elle
      Extreme Baseball a.k.a. Double Diamond Baseball
      Football
      Gilli Danda
      Indian Ball
      Johnball
      Khudo Khundi
      Lapta – two salos (bases)
      The Massachusetts Game – four bases
      Oina
      Old Cat (One old cat, Two old cat, etc.) – variable
      Over-the-Line
      Palant
      Pärk
      Pesäpallo – four bases
      Pentagram Baseball – five bases
      Rounders – four bases or posts run counterclockwise
      Schlagball
      Slagbal – four bases and the ball is thrown underhand wise (played in the Netherlands)
      Scrub Baseball – four bases (not a team game per se)
      Stickball – can be variable
      Stoolball – two stools
      T-Ball
      Town ball – can be variable
      Vigoro – two wickets
      Vitilla – three bases
      Wiffle ball
      Wireball

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat-and-ball_games