First, it was Morgan Stanley on the economy:
Disruptions to economic activity have become increasingly pervasive as social distancing measures and closures of nonessential businesses have spread across the country. This will lead to a sharp drop off in activity in 2Q that is reflected in the now 38% annualized decline in GDP that we expect for the second quarter (previously -30%). That follows what we expect will be a 3.4% annualized contraction in first quarter, for a cumulative decline in the level of real GDP through 2Q20 of 12%.
The evolution of economic activity thereafter will be a function of how quickly the number of coronavirus cases peaks as well as how quickly social distancing measures are rolled back and how quickly consumer and business sentiment recovers such that at least somewhat normal economic behavior can resume.
