Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A volatile day for local stocks while other Asian bourses were very unsteady following the broad gains on Wall Street overnight. We’re still in bear market territory, so oscillations of this kind are not to be unexpected. USD firmed against Yen but both Kiwi and Aussie remain resilient while gold slipped a little in late trade.

Chinese stocks are the only ones advancing with the Shanghai Composite currently up 0.2% to 2743 points while the Hang Seng Index is up 0.6% or so to 23310 points, still unable to keep above above its high moving average on the daily chart and looking tenuous to say the least:

Japanese share markets had modest falls despite a similar weakness in Yen with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.9% lower to remain well below the 19000 point level. The USDJPY pair had a small sniff at some upside action by breaking back above the 108 handle but has paused in afternoon trade before the City open:

The ASX200 had a wild day, up over 3% at one point before a sharp selloff throughout this afternoon saw it take that back, plus a little more, eventually closing 2% lower to 5076 points as “insert excuse here”. Quarterly/month end rebalancing? Bots gone wild? Too many smart traders piling up on BEAR and BBOZ ETFs? Cough… Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is hurriedly going nowhere, stuck above the mid 61s as it looks set to complete a rounding top pattern:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures were advancing but have stalled here at the previous resistance levels, namely 2600 for the S&P500, with its four hourly futures chart about to complete a double top pattern:

The economic calendar includes the latest German unemployment print and then US house prices. And then your latest Bible reading from the White House. No thoughts, just prayers.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I figured it was the CCP having a go after the whole “This site is nothing but anti china racists” rant on one of the threads earlier today….

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Quick question. Is it still worth moving AUD to USD. My concern is the USD might tank if the US goes fully zombie apocolypse. I guess it doesn’t matter if the AUD tanks more. Happy to hear what other think (although I get this is not ‘trading advice’ and any outcome of these choices is my responsibility).

      • It hasn’t lost reserve currency status yet.
        It’s still the primary currency for cross-border debts and trade.

        • Although the US losing reserve status might happen, or some sort of plaza accord to prop the stinking edifice up.

          The worry is these things tend to be precursors to major wars.

      • Do you mean just as a speculative play? Or because you want the USD longer term, to buy stuff with? (Holiday, stocks, bonds, a condo in Hawaii?)

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Mostly Speculative, although if the US housing market tanks 2009 GFC style we might look at more US property.

          • Tough one. I don’t know if the AUD will stay this low on the longer term. We ultimately do have all those resources to sell so we do have a fundamental value. I do tend to think it can sink again short term. I’m still comfortable being long USD but if we get back to mid 50s I might reverse that.

        • there is a difference between USA and Europe (and it’s satellites including us) when it comes to a catastrophe

          If 100k people die in USA as a consequence of coronavirus that is going to be seen as something OK, expected and quite normal by Americans. They are not used to nanny state taking care of their feelings and needs
          Even if one million dies they’ll be not reaching meltdown level yet

          Americans see life quite differently to us, they are not expecting anyone to help and if that means dying they are mostly fine with it – that’s life. They are used to hear stories about people dying because they didn’t have to pay for treatments after they lost job and or health care or they got over the lifetime limits.

          Keep in mind that 250k people die in USA every month and many thousands of them because healthcare system is already broken (without the coronavirus)

          • Those numbers don’t compute, you’re talking a 25-30 year full population replacement with 1mil/month.

          • Sorry I made a mistake, I confused Chinese numbers
            regardless, even at 250k per month many many thousands, tens of thousands die because of lack of health care

          • Yeah except for rampaging around the world from 2001 to now because of 3000 deaths in 9/11

      • the USD is infected with covid and is about to sink like a New York bingo match… gold would be a smarter buy for the near to medium term

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          The divergence between ‘phyiscal gold’ and ‘paper gold’ is a worry though : contracts are written as if gold can also be printed.

      • I’m still holding plenty of USD and ASX:YANK, for a variety of reasons, with the following being my main ones:

        – USD is reserve currency
        – US still literally has the guns
        – US is now the world’s central bank, again
        – US economy is better than the Aus economy – a LOT better, and they can look after themselves if they need to (we can’t)
        – US doesn’t have a nation-wide, un-popped housing bubble, but Aus does (popped in all but the numbers, I think…)
        – US are a resilient and resourceful people – probably more than Aussies
        – Aus is commodity dependent, and we are heading further into a global demand shock
        – China will probably get a second shock (more economic sniffles for Australia)

        So, I think there is more reasons for USD strength than AUD strength in the short-term.

        That being said, even I have lost some faith in the way that the US/Trump has handled the virus, and have sold a good deal of USD recently.

        Instead, I’ve kept back a bit of AUD (and, I can always earn more…I think!), bought some Euros, and bought some gold (ASX:PMGOLD).

        I’ve also got some BBOZ and BBUS with small change, but don’t expect anything much from them (they are currently slightly down); I will sell them once/if they get a decent profit – say, 10-20%. Might use the money to go in and out of GEAR, GGUS, BBOZ and BBUS, for 5-10 % gains – which for me, at the moment, is about picking the right trend, getting a 5-10% gain in 1-2 days and then selling out…I’m a pleb and don’t really know where things are going, but picking a few hundred dollars up here and there has actually worked so far, so I will keep doing it until I get my arse handed to me 😛

    • Very likely to be the internet glitching under load due to almost everybody in the country becoming a shutin and downloading porn, watching netflix and working from home, in that order.

      We are blessed with modern internet infrastructure in this country that is more than adequate for any conceivable demand that could be placed on it.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Joe Bloggs’ laws of trading the AUD
        – In the short – medium term, the AUD will do the opposite of what you bet/expect/want/forecast a number of times. Just when you think the trend will continue it will do an about face and grind strongly in the opposite direction
        – If you put a stop loss in at what you think is a big buffer…… the stop-loss will get triggered on a strange spike, before racing in the direction you put the trade on for.
        – The poo will go on odd runs, for example, where the Asian and European trade will bid the poo each day while the US market will take it all back again. Just when you think you are spotting a trend, it will change trend.
        – If MB suggest it is teetering on the edge and looks to be going down or up, in the short-term it will do the opposite

        • You forgot one
          – Good economic data = aud soars on risk on trade
          Bad economic data = aud soars b/c well b/c………ahhhhhh………oh!! China’s gonna stimulate !!!

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          19:26 EST Aust – Public Service Trading Alert: Ok, I just put down a AUD to USD transfer @ $0.604. This means tomorrow the AUD is going to jump to at least $0.69. Place your trades at your own risk. 😀 😉

          • Can you do me a favour and place a trade the other way too? Though I think that may risk tearing the space/time continuum.

        • Trading the AUD is called the Widow Maker for a reason – am I right?

          Frankly, if I were not trying to preserve international buying power of my capital/cash, I would not be in FX – it’s scary.

          It’s just that I earn in AUD….which I don’t much believe in!

      • @Timmeh – did you convert $USD for house settlement yet? Remember I said don’t look the gift horse in the mouth 🤣 I was always losing out vs $USD. Would have been lovely to convert at 54 cent.

        • Gav, nope, not yet. I was at TAFE the day the lpoo went too 55c and then rebounded back to 57.5. If I was at home that day I may have pulled the trigger. Or I probably would have pushed my luck hoping it to go lower. Now I just have to sit and watch and try and make the best move I can. Such is life when playing with markets. Vendors wanted to delay moving out and pay us a weeks rent. Yeah, nah, you arent going on a lease where you can then turn around and say, sorry, cant pay and we’ll stay here for 6 months for free, thanks. So settlement is the 16th. A lot might happen between now and then, so im keeping my fingers crossed the aud falls. Unless it rockets from here I am in front compared to what I was when pulling the trigger on the offer, so I cant whinge. Its certainly hard seeing an extra 10K usd in the bank one day and gone the next though!

          • I know that roller coaster your on. Not fun. Ha. But now that I converted it all into 1 asset at least I didn’t have to keep watching daily movements of such things. Good luck!

    • Hopefully not much further. I’m down about a 1/4 of a mill of profits from the bottom. Still got some left but am beginning to worry this thing never stops. Easy come easy go I guess.

  1. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    a bbc crew filmed their entry back into China in the 24 hours before China locked out all foreigners on the weekend. Watch this (it’s only 3 minutes long) and tell me: for a country that has already gone through the WuFlu experience once, whether this looks like a government that believes that it’s a virus with a mortality rate of 0.84%

    • What it tells me is that Straya, Europe and particularly the US are an unmitigated shambles. The Chinese are doing things right. The rest of the world is a Shi$show.

      • Thanks for the link CMB 👍
        Yes Ortega, you can see the difference between what we and other Western Countries aren’t doing and what we should be doing.
        Singapore, South Korea, Tiawan are A grade on the frontline as well.
        Simple bulk temperature testing, though not perfect, is a necessary first and front line requirement.
        I imagine we will eventually do it, just don’t know how many avoidable deaths it may cost us before we lift our game.

        • The chinese bought all the thermometers available in Aus and sent em back to china before we knew we needed them. Can’t see them making any more for us anytime soon.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      now that the CCP successfully gave it to the world they will try to keep china an island and then take advantage of its position – the world is blessed with such wonderful global citizens

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        I did find it ironic that we got blasted earlier this year for some (light on) travel bans from parts of China as they were a possible virus risk, and yet, the Chinese have now banned all foreigners from entering their country. *shrugs*….

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Thanks for that. Fascinating stuff. You can also see how hopelessly weak our own border controls are vs this. Even back in Jan you could see the Chinese response was highly disproportional the stories that it was all under control and ‘just a flu’. It was clear that once this thing broke out of China it was going to be bad.

    • Going to lengths to keep an orderly cue so maybe they’ll learn something from this? I like how the hazmat suits said ‘stolen from Australia’ on them 😉

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        “Stolen from Oz”… could be, but I bet the label on the inside still says “Made in China” 😀

      • As it happens Dalian was the only major Chinese city where I saw orderly queuing for public transport as a standard (they would also stand back until others got out). Dalian is (or was) China’s most educated city, with lots of Japanese and European high tech companies based there. Their other claim to fame was the Dalian Female Mounted Police unit – google for photos – but it was disbanded a while back.

    • So airport staff, flight attendants and hotel staff in China all have access to full PPE kit whilst our doctors can’t even get it. Kick the scum companies and Chinese students out that shipping supplies back to China so we go without.

      • Wrinkled Sachs

        Amazing what one video with zero context and absolutely no proof of anything other than a few boxes of soap can do for people…..seriously – A Current Affair…

        “Kick the Chinese Scum Out”

        You would have been great in Australia at the last major world event – right at home mate. Listen to yourself.

        • And the trailered buses that scoured Goulburn & surrounds on a daily basis? The ones that ventured even further & were run out of some towns?

        • Chinas doing a great job at containing this you should go back there to stay safe and shut the door on the way out

      • Short CapitalismMEMBER

        Not really: they actually have a manufacturing base to produce the items they need. And the amount of product they sequestered back was modest, at best, and was legal. Blame our government for being asleep at the wheel.

    • Wrinkled Sachs

      Here you go – that video says things like “impressive” and shows just how well they have dealt with things – you need a much more spurious video, with more innuendo, entirely un fact checked packed with sensationalism and totally unsubstantiated accusations – reputable source too, like “A Current Affair”.

    • There’s a rumor that China is battling a second wave of the virus 🦠.

      If true, can you imagine the appetite to shut the joint down again.

  2. A wee bit of tightening from the banks after the banking RC and house prices fell 10-15% in Syd and Melb.

    So someone needs to tell the CoreBS people that a global pandemic, ongoing mass-unemployment and an international capitalist lock-down may result in a house price falls.

    • Contacted WBC

      They will loan us 10% MORE than 6 months ago

      Based on
      No debt
      1 credit card 2k max
      1 income low to mid 100s secure

      Work that out

      Paging peachy

      • adelaide_economistMEMBER

        I’m not suggesting they won’t open the spigots, but they could still be credit rationing. I’d say people with no debt and secure well-paid jobs are exactly the demographic they would be keen to load up with new debt at this particular point in time. Plenty of credit to those who don’t need it and none at all to the marginal cases.

        • Yep, roll out the red carpet for Prime borrowers, shut the door in the face of the marginals.

          I’d put my house on it

      • Fwiw I noted a house near me in Ringwood on busy main road with price tag in the $800s has sold. Auction board only went up within *4 weeks. So stuff is still selling in this Environment. Surprises me. But that’s what it is.

  3. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Street Talk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! With Mining Bogan

    Oh, this one has it all!

    Boomer lady has dogs that love me so always stop for a cuddle and chat…cuddle with the dogs obviously so stop that. Anyhow, she announces she and hubby are in isolation. Just back from South America. Arrived in Santiago just as their seven week cruise was cancelled. Yes, still going on a cruise even after all the hullabaloo. Paid for see. Now they’re down $30k each. But the holiday isn’t all that the virus killed, it’s also taken her business out. She’s asking me about the Scummo agenda so I advised the ATO Job thingy that Lovey applied for because her business has closed. She reckons her accountant says she’s not qualified to get it. Sounds odd but I continued with the soothing noises until the subject of four IPs came up…

    Is your bank offering payment deferrals?
    Haven’t contacted them yet.
    Everyone still paying rent?
    So far.
    That’s okay then, anyhow this bloody government will do whatever they can to keep house prices up.
    That’s good. They’re our retirement
    Just means everyone keeps floating on a cloud of debt. I don’t like high house prices killing the kids,
    Oh, we don’t own expensive ones, just in this area. It’s affordable it’s just that kids don’t want to be out here
    They do but they can’t afford $700k when they earn $70k
    *look in the distance silence, contemplating*
    The whole world has debt though
    Yep, that’s why it’s all blowing up
    *more distance staring*
    Where have you got your investments?

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I guess to me the obvious question is “If money is tight, then sell an IP or two”. But that seems to be against the Landlord book of religion or something,

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        That’s their retirement silly! Anyhow, hubby does orright and I think they’ve inherited well, although the geared IPs might have swallowed that.

        Geez, it would kill her to have to give the Merc up…

      • They have this dream of hold forever. First the ever increasing rents pay off your property. Then you are clear and you live happily ever after off those ever-increasing rents. Passive income! Never sell! And how many properties you “own“ is like the bragging factor. People put it on their signature block on the property forums. Never sell! MOAR properties! (Ignore how little you have actually paid off).

        All falls over when rents do. Or when you lose your job. Or when the bank won’t refi you higher to buy the next one.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          “They have this dream of hold forever”. You see that a lot, although one of the best pieces of business advice I got was “understand your exit strategy”. Indeed I was told to think about this when starting up a business. “WTF?” I thought at the time, but it turned out to be excellent guidance from some folks way smarter than I. Thanks People.

      • If someone can’t pay their mortgage they should go sell a car, some stocks, their valuables, the $1500 iPhone.

        • both fckn.. ALK is causing bit of pain but I am holding as I really think this investment is sound.
          I am well ahead for the year and made lot of money on ALK but I did buy again bit too early.. This is next week they have to release resource upgrade for one of their exploration projects and in 2-3 weeks later assays for another deep diamond drill that I expect to confirm their porphyry discovery in NSW.
          In normal market conditions ALK would have been trading at over $1 now and in the euphoria days close to $2 or over $2 on the back of last week’s assays. Not today.

    • Trout à la Crème

      ‘It’s affordable it’s just that kids don’t want to be out here
      They do but they can’t afford $700k when they earn $70k’
      Such typical ego driven boomer gaslighting. Sounds like reading whirlpool forums.

  4. Is anyone else hearing that one of the “deals” the National Cabinet looks like making is a national agreement to raise the GST to 15%?

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER


    From what I’ve been told WA is split into six regions which you can’t travel between. Don’t know how that works if you live in Perth and work up north. Anyhow, that’s a whole bunch of Eastern staters either locked out or locked in if already there even on their time off.

    Apparently they’re still trying to work deals on what essential services can do. Clusterf#ck.

    • now I see why many gold miners were down even though gold price holds above $1600usd. From what I hear WA has the only sane premier – never thought I’d say something like this about any Liberal politician besides John H who retired long time ago.
      Hewson that is. Not the war criminal.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Yeah, the story is anyone from the east has to quarantine for two weeks now where they had an exemption previously. So first they tried to get staff to relocate to WA to dodge it and now are talking about keeping staff in camp for the duration of lockdown. Don’t think that won’t send some minds into odd spaces, spending days off in a donga in the middle of nowhere. It was hard enough when you were working.

        Oh, McGowan is Labor

        • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

          FIFO dudes in Bali will be pissed.

          Assuming they could get out anyway…..

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Kiwis too. Ones I know were already going back to stay with family in the eastern states but that rug has now been pulled out. I hinted at this a week or so ago that a lot who are locked out will start reassessing their lives and realise they don’t need go go back. Some moved to Perth because incentives but not many…or enough.

            FIFO relies on people willing to disrupt their lives. Eventually that disruption tips the scales to “meh, couldn’t be arsed anymore”.

        • right.. I think idea is to force miners to employ locals (WA workers) as many tradies that worked in the towns would be now looking for work. I’d be surprised if this is purely safety initiative. But yeah risks for miners is big..

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Been saying this for years. FIFO should only be for remote camps. Anywhere that a community can service should be local residency only. Maybe another silver lining of the virus.

        • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

          Those councils should be giving plots of land for $1 and infra connections are cost to encourage workers to live there permanently.

          Always amazed me what they were trying to charge punters for land and then bitched and moaned when people wanted to do FIFO.

          No shortage of land in all those places.

          • Shortages of water, power, and sewerage services though. And very few families want to live out there.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            People went to remote places before FIFO became popular. Get rid of it and they’ll still get their staff as long as they reward them.
            Why, I can still remember when central qld mining towns were communities.

          • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

            Lived in the NW of WA for two years and it was a fantastic lifestyle, particularly for young families.

            Local councils and state government could be doing more to attract FIFO workers to live there permanently.

    • Woodside was talking about doing a six week swing or something rediculous. Spending that long on a rig and people will be going postal.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Hahaha those tossers in cottesloe will be stuck going to dinner parties with each other where none can brag about just coming back from somewhere not a desert shithole!

    • A perfect opportunity for the mines to ramp up automation while they have no workers.

    • I just flew in to Karratha from Perth a few hours ago and didn’t have any trouble – no temperature checks, no paperwork etc. the flight was only about a 3rd full though.

      My phone has been going off all week with companies trying to source WA-based crew. Wish it was like that all the time..

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yeah, I agree with MiningB. Is this a good thing, bad thing. RUOK? (as they say)

    • Very unexpected. I just passed a 6 month probation a few weeks ago. My role was Employee Relations Specialist with Racing Victoria. I thought I was probably going to be fairly safe. Apparently not. Because I’d only been there a short time there’s no redundancy pay, just standard 4 weeks notice. I left a secure full time job at the MFB (that I hated) to come here part time. Have been saving and waiting for the crash and thought I’d be buying soon enough. Well, that screws those plans.
      Have savings, silver stack, skills in lots of areas, currently studying ohs, have plenty of car projects to keep busy, got a call from an ex colleague with a job lead already. I’ll be fine guys. Thank you for checking in.

      • This worries me greatly, I’ve worked on and off in racing industry for 15 years (was lucky enough to stay full-time through equine influenza) and I know all too well that as soon as racing staff get laid off, Australian economy is truly farked

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Even then this all bullsh#t! The f#ckwits just printed $5 Trillion, do you really think $500 is the bottleneck??

    • freddy lasthopeMEMBER

      Im under the impression that these pumps are unsuitable for COVID19 sufferers.

      “With our coronavirus patients, once they’re on ventilators, most need about the highest settings that we can do. About 90% oxygen, and 16 of PEEP, positive end-expiratory pressure, which keeps the lung inflated. This is nearly as high as I’ve ever seen. The level we’re at means we are running out of options.

      “In my experience, this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a near drowning experience — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who inhale caustic gas. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly. That was what really shocked me.”–terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

  6. As a WHO member state, I can’t understand how China can do this. Nor can I understand how WHO can endorse China.
    “Authorities in Wuhan are unlikely to disclose the overall number of deaths until now in the central Chinese city despite renewed concerns about underreporting of fatalities from the coronavirus pandemic.
    An official at Wuhan’s Civil Affairs Bureau said on Monday that the numbers would be released in the second week of June as scheduled, and that there is no plan to alter the date.”

    • DingwallMEMBER

      That will be interesting …. will it be larger than expected or bang on some predetermined chart curve

      • The final deaths may not be any larger. They really locked that place down. If you see how we are slowing it down a bit with very modest restrictions, you can see how they did contain it.

        But it is very disconcerting information right as USA starts to come under real pressure. Everyone will think that the true number is much higher if they are refusing to release it.

        I can’t understand the WHO not calling China out on this. It seems like a real test for the legitimacy of the WHO.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      The world is a better place because of the rise of chyna, wonderful people, really

  7. this Moldovan vodka/brandy goes really well with raw walnuts slightly dipped in honey.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Now this is exactly the sort of info we need when in a lockdown. Thank Niko. Will have to suss out Moldovan Vodka from Dans. Any recommended brands?

      • the one I drink is called – typing exactly as it’s printed:
        Vodka with natural brandy flavor and caramel added.

    • The last bottle in my cabinet to go will be the Pelinkovac that I got to drink alternately with Ricard for the last world cup.

      • I could never drink that when I was young. Haven’t tried it in years.. so I might like now.

        • okradovicMEMBER

          Bit of trivia. Pelinkovac is made out of “pelin”. Pelin is nothing but wormwoood. So Pelinkovac is a bit like Absinthe but with less alcohol. And apparently it doesn’t make people go insane unlike the latter. Apparently.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Got that right. Just watch highlights of the Ella brothers. Poetry.

          And Stan Pilecki. What a player he was. Every overweight refugee yearned to be Stan.

          • MiBo – you might have heard this one before. (From memory) Stan played for Qld for well over a decade and played well over a hundred games for them, and this was at a time when Queensland was consistently the best provincial side in the world (how times have changed). Anyway after a decade or so of being in this gun team Stan finally scored his first try for the reds. After the game some journo asked him why it had taken him so long to score a try, to which he replied “Anyone can have on off decade”.

  8. The self-isolation blues.
    I just turned down a job delivering for my local fruit and veg shop.
    They offered to pay me in vegetables…
    but the celery was unacceptable.

  9. innocent bystanderMEMBER

    so all the leaners have fallen over
    and all the lifters are now leaners
    have I got that right?

  10. Am I pure evil for not wanting temp visa migrants not to get any government support? Or at least they must sign an agreement to leave when the travel ban is lifted. Hmmm. Even with friends in a temp visa situation – I’m not one to change what I believe in. The “woe is me” poor migrant worker articles are making me fume.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      A lot of them wants to go home, but cannot due to flights being cancelled. The humanitarian thing to do is for the Australian government to organise flights (we are bailing out Qantas after all, might as well get them to do something for it) to send them back home.

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          Fly them to Hobart, put them in a tinny and (pointing south), say homes that way.

          Technically it’s still true (unless they’re a flat earthed too(

      • buttzilla twenny

        lol we can’t afford to let them go…. rents n all that. will be crying for more chinese soon.

    • We offer to pay for their flight and send them the bill.

      If they don’t pay within 90 days then they are banned from entering Australia forever.

    • Well since I’m getting no freebies. I don’t see why Jimmies should get any either.

  11. Per some earlier post comments today I hear there are Freedoms in America …. chortle … because Markets = Die …

  12. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Why is Australia so much better at surviving this virus thing than anyone else? Is it our convict spirit? I do credit our Prime Minister’s measured response as being part of it but there’s probably more to it. Maybe our multi-culturalism has also made us stronger.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yep. Got their email today. Mind you I think they are still more viable than neobank Xinja who are still paying out 2% and pretending it’s all good. The ING cut was part of the reason moving some coin to USD was getting attractive.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        I would get every cent out of Xinja tomorrow.

        No product in the market to earn a cent of revenue. Paying above market rates as monthly costs, and staring down the barrel of Scotty’s brain fart hibernation housing market for 6 months.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Agree 100%. Even Xinja’s blog is full of self serving waffle. Red flags everywhere IMHO.

    • And on the day before they pay their interest for the month. (Although perhaps that Shouldn’t really matter as calculated daily?)

    • Rabo didn’t cut.

      I hope ING gives me a rate cut on my variable mortgage or fixed mortgage. Gotta get my free sh1t somehow.

  13. migtronixMEMBER

    18 months in 6 weeks. I’m calling it, its over…

    We had a bloated pig whore of an economy that was barely capable of self-locomotion even with the continued big australia / property interventions, and then stopped it dead on the tracks. It won’t move again. They’ll splutter it into motion only for it to cardiac arrest.

    An economy based on whoring to the factory of the world and that factory just lost 80% of their orders….

    • Yep, I can’t see China firing up again like nothing happened when the rest of the world is on it’s needs dealing with China’s virus. And that’s even before the blame game and sabre rattling begins. China sneezes and Australia catches WuFlu + a case of the clap and looks like a 50yo whore.

    • When zero rates, QE, mortgage freezes and $200 billion and counting just kicks the can for 6 months you know time is up. None of these measures gets a recovery, just buys us 6 months. By that time the US will be in deep trouble and multiple countries in EU bankrupt. The developing world will be crippled begging for foreignness for their US dominated debts and collapsing currencies. In AU we slowed credit growth a bit after RC and house prices declined 20% in two years. How will we manage the whole ponzi on shrinking credit demand, deleveraging and outright fear and hopelessness in larges swathes of the population. The negative feedback loops will just combine in a brutal way. If we had a productive economy we could have at least been Japanese, but with no value added exports or productivity it’ll be outright decline in living standards through lower dollar and imported inflation.

      • I can’t see a way out of it. But I also didn’t have the stomach to try and trade my way through it and come out on top.

        Everything I would have been invested in, Gold, Cash ($USD), BTC, Stocks, has taken some form of hit. I would have won in some only to lose in others.

        I hope the bubbles all burst, but I’m not sure if our lives will be better for it. I can only hope.

  14. I think our politicians have not done enough on time such as close borders but now they are overreacting to safe face – doing too much too late so we will get massive casualties as well as a f***ed up economy – they have literally closed the stable door after the horse has bolted then set the stable on fire .

  15. Why is #WageSubsidyForAll and #JoinYourUnion trending together? I thought unions constantly criticised temp workers? Suddenly the script has flipped?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      There’s a movement. Calls to talkback wireless about v!brant “friends” in trouble, Twitter heads pushing for helup, articles about stranded temp visa holders.

      Someone has them all organised. Looking at you Innes…

      • Imagine thinking paying taxes automatically means you should get welfare. FMD. They act like they aren’t using any other tax-funded services…

  16. I was asked in a previous thread to provide evidence for my claim that 80% of ventilated patients die anyway

    I saw the question a bit late but here are the primary sources

    Sure can

    Chinese data reports between 80 and 97% mortality in ventilated patients

    Note these are the two most reputable medical journals in the world

    Early data from UK reports mortality of 66% in ventilated patients but is an underestimate as they are only including patients who are either dead or fully recovered (not those still ventilated the majority of whom will die as the longer ventilation is required the less likely is recovery)

    The final result is likely to be about 80% mortality

    Indeed even the pissweak guardian is starting to ask questions:, “The high death rate raises questions about how effective critical care will be in saving the lives of people struck down by the disease.”

    In conjunction with the analysis yesterday that shows the true mortality rate (including asymptomatic patients) is only around 0.66% overall and 0.145% for under 60s , it suggests that “flattening the curve” in order to increase access to ventilators is a largely futile activity anyway

    Please note these people are actual experts PhDs and professors of epidemiology , publishing in the most prestigious medical journals in the world

    Whereas most of your information comes 2nd or 3rd hand from zerohedge and as well as gutter trash mainstream media

  17. migtronixMEMBER

    Almost just punched on with the neighbours! One more week and there’ll be blood on this apartment block!

      • migtronixMEMBER

        I’m completely over people shouting orders acting as if they have they have gestapo powers because Pandemic! Wasn’t even to me but i just snapped! Then some other f#ckwits came out of the woodwork and I really was ready to cripple some people.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        This is one of the worst mass social engineering experiments ever conducted.


        • What I said to co workers weeks ago. Slam the door shut all citizen arrivals only into forced quarantine in tents in a aircraft hanger at the airport. Got called a white supremist.

          • All the Indian fellas I worked with had the same idea, lock it down, mass quarantines. We were the only ones at work that took the obvious threat seriously. Sad when some new Australians make more sense than the apathetic home growns.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Yep. That is all it would have taken. Exit is fine, but no one in. A month ago. But Scotty wanted to go to the footy. Or Hawaii. I forget which.

          • Goldstandard1MEMBER

            +1. Also please don’t forget (my personal favourite) the day before the GP was cancelled the Victorian police minister took the Mic after Daniel Andrews and Brendan MD had finished talking about social distancing and said:

            “We have given 1000s of tickets to bush fire volunteers to attend the Melbourne GP, and all members of the public if you see them, should approach everyone of them and shake their hands”.

            Debarkle was the lead up to our current situation……

  18. @Coming – re UK battle triage thread – c’mon buddy, it isn’t that hard, provide a source that backs up what you’re saying. Stop dodging the fact you don’t have one with your repeated personal opinions, source or retract the assertions.

    “We already do this during normal times – no 90 year olds from nursing homes are ventilated”

    That’s what ya posted and you still haven’t provided a source

    • He should keep an eye on Sweden.,… they are trying what he wants …. ie let it run its course……. they may crack though……… He can scream all he likes but I don’t think any gov’t is going to do what he believes is right … so no one can tell him he is wrong or right 🙄

    • arthritic kneeMEMBER

      Worked in UK Hospitals for nearly 10 years. Ol’ Coming does talk some sh*t but this type of decision has been standard practice in the UK for years. No ICU if you aren’t coming out. Here’s some interesting stats (>10 years out of date). If you are admitted to hospital in the UK, deteriorate and are later moved on to ICU, 2/3 die. If you are admitted straight to ICU (e.g. trauma) 2/3 live. Coming argues that the virus is ‘bringing forward’ deaths of those with other conditions. Likely correct, but not bringing forward by a year or two, bringing forward a decade in many cases. My old man has a strong family history of longevity (90+) but as an ex-smoker (40 years ago) with early emphysema and 80+ he would be toast. The whole “people die all the time” argument is daft. The Libs hate doing Labor style handouts and wouldn’t if the writing wasn’t on the wall. The summary: Like all things in this world the true answer is somewhere in the middle of the extremes – in this case “Just the Flu” and “End of Days”

      • All well and good but Coming was specifically speaking about Australia pre-corona and with implied authority of standard practice. Until I see someone pony up a reference saying that it’s an across the board legislated policy, it’s a load of sh!t

  19. I’m watching Ramsay’s Kitchen Nightmares circa 2006 when it was still fairly new and he was in the UK. So much better than all the fake drama shouty US show it became.

  20. And there goes a cent off the poo in a matter of three hours. Volatility is crazy. I think this will take ten years off me waiting to swap out of usd before house settlement.

    • Harrowing! And all the while it is the plaything of hedge funds and big central banks (ie not ours) so there’s no picking it!

      Maybe swap some now, some later and the rest at the end. You’ll get some variance and minimise regret. Still way better than two months ago!

    • Use CurrencyFair to set the exchange rate where you want it ans of the pool bobs that low you’ll exchange some money.

  21. “@AdhikariPrastut
    I have called Australia home now for more than 5 years. Paying 8k to 10 k in tax every year. Now just because I am on temporary visa, I am not eligible for wage subsidies. #wagesubsidyforall”

    Pardon me, but why after 5 years has he not applied for PR… also 8k tax seems extremely low…… Both point to being not a skilled worker.

  22. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Today is another good day for Australia. 4560 cases with 311 new cases, a 7.32% increase. Tasmania have no new cases and WA dropped to only 9 cases, so the state travel ban worked. Once they get to zero for a week, those states can re-open as long as they maintain border control. I expect that would be just after Easter.

    South Australia’s number continues to go up : a lot of it is from the Ruby Princess which they can thank Glady and ScoMo. Cruise ships is the ‘plague carrier’ for coronavirus cases in Australia. The 6 cases of luggage handlers at the airport being infected is a bit of concern though : did they get it from the luggage?

    I took my mum’s car to a tyre shop to repair a puncture. At the store, I had to stand behind a line 1.5 meter away from the counter, speak to the attendant wearing rubber gloves, and the key is left in a bowl next to a can of disinfectant spray. When I collect the car, payment is done online so he doesn’t have to touch the creditcard or get within 1.5 meter from me. I’m glad to see some business is taking the virus risk seriously.

    While waiting for the tyre to be patched, I went for a bit of shopping at the Coles nearby : all eggs, pasta and flour is gone, but plenty of milk . I then went to the fruit shop 20 meters away to buy fruit and see plenty of egg, pasta and flour on display. So either Coles is really bad with restocking, or people who panic buy don’t really need it since they can’t be bothered to walk 20 metre away to get more.

    Italy looks to be flatterning the curve now, although it still has 4000 cases a day. UK have also hit the point of inflection, but their best case scenario is still 20K death. The number from US is still scary. The Blue states have hit peak infection but the Red states haven’t even started yet. The Fox News believers are not going to self isolate.

  23. Some of these spikes or crashes in the poo are 😲.
    60.90 to 61.30 in a minute …………just now
    Earlier today it plunged from 61.90 to 60.70 … and then recovered it all
    Shaky trigger fingers? Dodgy code on the bots?