Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stocks are up across the region, except locally where traders forgot to fill their buy orders later in the afternoon as the RBA held back on its last rate cut, giving no forecasts for what’s coming down the “V” for vacuous recovery. The rest of the risk complex is still dancing gaily across a sea of sun dapped flowers in joy as they remain confused about the maths behind the rate of change in COVID-19 cases and death rates.

The Shanghai Composite reopened and has launched higher, up more than 2% to 2821 points going into the close while the Hang Seng Index is set to close a little more than 1% higher at 24014 points, remaining just above its high moving average on the daily chart, as this breakout continues in its initial steps:

Japanese share markets are pushing higher as well as the Abe government announces cash handouts as part of its stimulus with the Nikkei 225 closing 2% higher at 18958 points, now getting closer to resistance at the 19000 point level as the USDJPY pair pulled back from its Friday rally, breaking back below the 109 handle as it was getting a little ahead of itself:

The ASX200 gapped nearly 2% higher at the open but nobody was brave enough to buy more shares off each other and snapped back to record a 0.6% loss for the day at 5252 points.  Meanwhile the Aussie dollar is now bursting out of the gates as the RBA did almost nothing at its recent meeting, sending the signal to boost the commodity proxy higher, almost up to last week’s high, currently at the mid 61 level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are just over 1% with the four hourly chart of S&P futures showing a breakout above the 2600 point resistance level equating to the previous weekly highs and stumbling points – can this get more traction as the morgues move into Central Park?

 

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Comments

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Don’t be jealous of Harry’s popularity Mig.

        His milkshake brings all the boys to the yard
        And they’re like, it’s better than yours
        Damn right it’s better than yours
        He could teach you, but he’d have to charge
        His milkshake brings all the boys to the yard
        And they’re like, it’s better than yours
        Damn right it’s better than yours
        He can teach you, but he’d have to charge
        He knows you want it
        The thing that makes him
        What the guys go crazy for
        They lose their minds
        The way he winds
        He thinks it’s time

        Yadda yadda yadda

  1. migtronixMEMBER

    This government at the height of the bushfires in Melbourne when our air quality was the worst or amongst the worst in the world didnt tell anyone to shelter in place. Maybe if it was a Chinese bushfire….

    We all breathed that crap in!

    • $$$ MR INFINITY $$$ QUANTITATIVE EASE ME

      Yes they say poullted places have more sickness pollution death go hand in hand

  2. Venetian Mask

    Bullish depression… I don’t buy that central banks and government stimulus can cover for the massive hole in private sector economic activity. Markets are amusingly similarly priced to last year when life was perfect. Anyway, where’s my f**king money, ScoMo? I want my piece of this global spending spree.

    • Maybe we peer behind the curtain and finally realise the economy no longer needs humans?! Our b*llsh*t jobs are just to keep us all busy and less revolting.

    • The trains too.
      Got on one last week( eye surgery so no driving)
      – first 6 carriages completely empty.
      – the rest had about 1 person per carriage.
      Couldn’t have socially distanced myself any better!

  3. NEW ZEALAND: STARTING ON THE PATH OF GETTING LOCAL GOVERNMENT COSTS UNDER CONTROL …

    The foundation for the housing affordability crisis has been local government costs getting out of control over recent decades … so they lose the capacity to meet infrastructure responsibilities to their communities and cope with normal growth …

    Coronavirus: Auckland Council cuts up to 1100 temporary and contractor staff … Todd Niall … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/120879172/coronavirus-auckland-council-cuts-1100-temporary-and-contract-staff?cid=app-iPad

    Christchurch city councillors call on residents to push for a zero per cent rates rise … Tina Law … The Press / Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/120828761/christchurch-city-councillors-call-on-residents-to-push-for-a-zero-per-cent-rates-rise

    • New Zealand local government employees are grossly overpaid in comparison with their North American counterparts. To illustrate check out their pay rates in Texas … one of the 5 States where it is mandatory to disclose public servants pay on an individual basis …

      Government Salaries Explorer – The Texas Tribune

      https://salaries.texastribune.org/

      Use The Texas Tribune’s Government Salaries Explorer to review the compensation of hundreds of thousands of state and municipal employees in Texas, including those working for state agencies, counties and public universities. This data is obtained by requesting salary records from those public entities through the Texas Public Information Act.

      The Tribune publishes this information because its journalists believe that disclosing how tax dollars are spent is in the public interest. To date, this database contains: … read more via hyperlink above …
      .
      .
      This largely explains why New Zealand housing in its leading metros is the most unaffordable in the English speaking world at 7.0 times annual household income, in comparison with the United States at 3.6 times annual household income …

      2020 16th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

      http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

      If you have got a problem, it is always a good idea to follow the money.

      Local government costs started to get out of control, largely thanks to the 1989 forced local government amalgamations.

      There are generally two types of local government … the small and the bad.

  4. Well, the markets simply insist everything is awesome again. Talk about detached from reality.

      • Is that according to the Daily Beast?
        It’s not about politics at the moment, it’s about what works. Hopefully it helps people.

        • I am serious too. But I am not sure when Trump too a stake. If he took a stake prior to be known this drug will work then he will be pushing for it regardless and will cause millions of deaths. If he bought after the fact then he should be sacked..

          I don’t play politics with these things. If the drug works let the world have it so we can go back to “normal” or whatever the state we were before.

          • It’s being reported that it’s a family trust in a mutual fund, NYT calls it a small financial interest (probably doesn’t even know he has it)
            The drug has been around for a long time, is cheap and a lot of producers are donating it. Most countries are signing up to give it a shot as its the only thing that’s hopeful.
            There will probably be calls to impeach him again soon.

          • as I already said, if drug works let’s have it. How Trump ended up having stake in it can be worked out later..

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            Rupert – if you can point to one selfless thing the guy has ever done it would help your case.

          • If that were true he would never have run for President in my opinion, nor would he refuse the Presidential income.
            I personally can’t stand politics in either country but this is not the time…. people need to lift their vision a little bit and this includes myself, we all need to be better.

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            It would be a bit more selfless to refuse the presidential income – if he wasn’t using the presidency to make a fortune for his businesses and those of his family. I get the PR optics 101 of it, but he’s making far more than he ever would have got paid as a salary.

            Without going into them – there are motives far more in line with his historical behavior that better explain why he ran for president and align far more accurately with his behavior since becoming president, than altruism or selflessness.

  5. And just in case anyone missed this gem, especially for MiBo..

    https://www.realestate.com.au/news/coronavirus-buyers-cheeky-tactics-to-try-and-secure-bargain-deals/

    Agents are urging property buyers to be reasonable and not take advantage of vendors who are vulnerable to the uncertain market conditions.

    Low-ball offers and threats to pull out of negotiations have been among the ways buyers have tried to seal cheap deals amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    Full Circle Property Advocates director Rob German said there were buyers who had decided to prey on vendors, who have been forced to cancel auctions.

    LOL! Now buyers are “preying” on vendors! And the REA wants buyers to be “reasonable”!!!! LOL, fvck you chunts, you deserve everything coming.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      No, did you, I got in at 54 cents, should I have sold ya got me worried now 🤪

      • I didn’t sell either. Someone has been buying for the last 5 trading days but today after 3:40pm they were shameless. Not sure if it is insiders buying on the back of leaked assays of institutional investors building stakes for themselves or a client who might be preparing take over bid.
        Did not feel like a normal everyday insider trading as those guys are very primitive and will go all in rather than being strategic. Not sure what to make of this but someone is buying big and it’s not your Hot Copper idiot crowd.

        Only after 3:40pm they went wild.. prior to that there were very careful.. very sophisticated which made lot of seller go to them rather than them chasing the sellers.

          • keep an eye on them as there will be lots of news coming over the next 4 weeks.
            Boda – next DD hole assays are due any day now and last DD hole assays in 3 weeks or thereabouts.
            St Antonio – maiden recourse that market expects at least 300k Oz and this will be in addition to their Rosewell 440k Oz that is adjacent to it. Only 3-4km from their plant.
            Peak Hill – metallurgical tests for their refractory gold deposit – this will be released in the quarterly report and is expected to be positive as science made huge improvements in the last 15 years.

    • The next generation will have all the same resources to make stuff from no matter if we have no debt or all the debt now.
      Money and debt are mere accounting tricks used to control the distribution of stuff at the present time.
      Until someone builds an actual time machine and we start stealing actual goods from the future then future generations will remain unnaffected.

      At an individual level debt is consumption now at the cost of reduced consumption later, but someone has to be on the other end of that debt so what it really is is consumption transferred between 2 parties now, as without that time machine we can’t bring future items for consumption now.

    • Venetian Mask

      We actually are stealing goods, as well as liveability, from the future by printing money to consume resources that we would not have done in a sound money system that observes constraints. We left sound money behind so that the USA could wage the Vietnam War more effectively, how many people have we killed using the proceeds of free debt creation? Anyway I assume we won’t see a global debt jubilee any time soon, but if we do, that may well be even more misery we heap on future generations.

      • What a joke … all the wars before it … and all the rampant consumption of natural capital for a quick profit too boot.

        Ad hoc ergo propter hoc monkey goo mind swill … barf …

        • Venetian Mask

          Harsher words than usual from you, obviously you’re more upset than the typical hit and run comment

        • My line trimmer did that this morning. But I backed-off the choke a little then it ran fine.

      • money supply doesn’t limit resource consumption, it doesn’t create men to work, it doesn’t create resources to exploit, all it does is change the price of those resources and how they are distributed.

  6. It’s the AirBnB IP hoarders that I will be happiest to see lose their shirts. Especially the Tassie ones. They deserve a special spot in hell.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      May they get to share their dingiest, most overpriced rental with The Cardinal for eternity

  7. Honestly , it’s amazing that after 12 years of bashing your heads into the wall , you still believe that the natural order will reassert itself and asset prices will collapse in a deflationary Armageddon

    We have literally had the blackest swan imaginable and it got pumped full of 12gauge and eaten

    If you’re still a bear at this point I don’t even know what to say

    Seek help

    • Meh, we’ll see. I’ve been wrong for 14 years now (wrong in the sense that what government and banks and stupid speculators has been doing to drive house prices that is), whats another year?

          • Venetian Mask

            If you look at Econimica, there’s not gonna be too many people in those future generations either… but whatever, let’s just do hyperinflation because shares must always go up.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            If Future Generations can’t pay off the debt it’s because they didn’t have ENOUGH OF A GO

          • Venetian Mask

            They will hate us more than Millennials hate the Boomers and we’ll deserve it.

    • Venetian Mask

      I see you can’t even wait for trading to open today… sounds like a very scientific assessment on your part.

    • what makes me think that you are not as smart as you think you are is your certainty….

      • The saddest part is you don’t have to be a genius to work it out

        Even the stupidest buy and hold mums and dads get it

        I call it the MacroBusiness middle-intellect trap : the website attracts people who think they are too smart to just play along, but too dumb to work out what is actually happening

        SAD!

        • Venetian Mask

          What’s really sad is if you turn out to be wrong, you’ll just vanish into the ether, never to be heard from again.

          Whereas if you turn out to be right about this thing that everyone here and most market participants were aware of, you’ll continue to pester everyone around you for the remainder of your life however long that will be.

          • There is literally zero chance that I turn out to be wrong in the medium or long term

            Stockmarkets only go up
            Property prices only go up
            Fiat currency only goes down

            Maybe I’ll disappear for a month or two, but I’ll be back

            have you ever considered why you keep hurting yourself ?
            I used to be like you once

            I honestly think it’s more a mental illness than a lack of intellect

          • Venetian Mask

            Could y0u be less obvious about your tr0lling, so that when I talk to y0u, I don’t feel so stup1d for engaging?

            When is the NIKKEI going to hit ATH if it’s so inevitable that the market always goes up? It’s only been 31 years, plenty of time left.

          • I don’t think so

            I bought bitcoin to buy drugs when it was double digits then lost my key and forgot about it until it was 4 figures

            I would have told you to sell at 20k though – not that anyone could get a meaningful amount of money out

            How much are you still holding mig ?

        • migtronixMEMBER

          It’ll be sad next week with 20k dead Americans and your fantasy in the toilet paper…

          • 20k wow
            much dead
            0.005% of the population

            Anyway, 20k fewer old/crippled Americans is good for the stock market, not bad …

        • Midddle-intellect trap – I like it. I really like it.

          I really like coming! (…that’s what she said, haw haw haw! Chortle!)

    • Be careful of what you wish for. The only way to save the market now is to open the floodgate to immigrants. You’ll be surrounded by cashed-up chinese communists, who, even I can’t stand.

    • I think you’re counting chickens before they have hatched. If you think this thing is over, well I think you’re jumping the gun. Financial markets are being juiced, but demand has collapsed. Do we just go back to share buy backs? It can’t last forever.

      • Fed will buy stocks if it has to, but it won’t because fiscal deficits will do the work

        Huge differences between this and the Nikkei anyway
        -PE ratio of the Nikkei was 100x
        -at the top, it was literally parabolic . You had to have bought in a period of a few specific months to not be in the green now
        -boj monetary response was timid. JPow has increased liabilities by trillions in a few days : 50% more than the entire GFC already
        -plaza accord and asynchronicity with other markets hamstrung Japanese fiscal and monetary response
        -lack of natural resources, and negative population growth hamstrung fiscal and monetary response
        -japan is a cohesive , racially homogeneous and honourable society. They wouldn’t degrade themselves and their people just to protect asset holders
        By comparison, we have trump, scomo, BoJo (for the moment), the tribe etc

        • Venetian Mask

          https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/japan/pe-ratio

          It seems it was 71x. at the peak Which is a very high p/e indeed. But the levels were much more reasonable in the early 80s and then early 90s.

          Anyway, you’ll have a whole list of rationalisations for why things didn’t work out, if the market comes back in 30 years and we’re facing the same problem, and you are still a perma-bull. It’s all post-hoc. Way before coronavirus, everyone was aware that all the stops would be pulled out to save the stock market if it came to that. The question here is simple, can the establishment response really save the stock market? My view is that there’s no substitute for a functioning economy, no number of bond purchases can substitute that. I’m not going to feel like a genius if I turn out to be right, because the binary option here is really simple and none of us truly know whether the CB and fiscal responses will do the trick.

        • Fwiw I’m long property and stocks. So I somewhat agree Coming that they will do everything to protect assets, but why didn’t they manage it in 08? Do you think they learnt the lessons in 08 so they don’t make them again this time? Have they been rehearsing for this moment? Does this mean stocks can never truly revert to mean again? Is this the new normal? I just don’t see it. The bull run has ended, do we face a depression with rising asset prices? I’m just not convinced, but I agree fiat is only useful for day to day transactions. Everything else. Pointless.

    • Chinese Virus

      I don’t know what everyone is afraid of.

      Especially with US equities. There’s no limit to what will be spent in order to maintain the status quo. Trump will sign off on everything he’s re-election partly depends on it. They can spend $20 trillion it won’t hurt the US dollar.

      Just pig out. Get the feed bag on and start chowing down.

      If the S&P500 goes down to 2000 I’ll just load up on more.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        The US Fed is constitutionally prevented from buying US stocks.

        That is a procedure that can be overwritten in time but we’re all going to get forewarning.

        Until then, no, there is no way that the US Fed can directly buy stocks to prop up the market. They can sell an infinite amount of bonds to banks at 0% but, they still carries a cost to the banks. Is, there is friction in the transmission mechanism.

        And the Eurodollar shortage that has been squeezing global financial markets for the last 4 years has already sapped all extra liquidity from the US banks, so they are a bit skint in terms of ability absorb another trillion of US bonds.

    • Wow a bit early to call it. Try sportsbet, they might be willing to handover a mil $ paying out this early.

  8. TailorTrashMEMBER

    2020 is one for the history books for sure ….
    ……Pussy Galore just checked out too ( well the actress who played her ) …..won’t affect Reusa …..he has it on tap permanently….

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Was on crutches shuffling round the house like a broken old man this morning.

        Antiinflams kicked in properly this arvo about 6 so gingerly up and about. That’s what makes me think it’s gout, if it was soft tissue damage wouldn’t go away that quick. But surprising to have it as high as the knee.

        In the morning missus didn’t greet my suggestion that I p!ss in a pickle jar in bed with howls of delight.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            This one one is not as bad, but being in the knee means you can’t bend in any direction or put any pressure on without going “oh fvck”. At the wrong angle, it’s like a small vegetable knife being put into the joint.

            In the past I’ve had it so bad in the big toe joint that after the inflamation and sweling went down, the skin peeled off like a sunburn. That’s when it’s like a hundred hot needles into the toe joint and no-one is allowed to come near, in case it is bumped.

            It is a terrible affliction, but I have no-one to blame but myself.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Just finished practice.

      But only doing easy stuff (yousician) not speed work.

      FCKEN

      Also have to learn Another Brick in the Wall solo for mate who I refretted his black strat for FCKEN. To check out how the electronics are. Haven’t got past the first doodleoodle oodle do do. Because it’s just hippies noodling. But I’ll have to get started on it soon. fcken.

        • haroldusMEMBER

          Just looking up the settings. It appears there is a not insignificant proportion of the internet devoted to this.

          Be that as it may, I think I’ll do it on a VOX emulator on the neck pickup. With a 3 or 4 times short delay.

  9. Michael blurry says lockdown cure worse than disease and he’s a doctor. Lockdowners are wrong game set match.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      This is a guy who is talking about his own self interest, nothing more.

      That ‘miracle drug’ touted is shown to be effective in one clinical trials, but ineffective in another one, so the jury is still out on this one.

      • We’re all talking our own self interest. I guarantee that you Ronin don’t own a building company that’s set to loose big time if a full lockdown goes ahead.
        That doesn’t mean you can dismiss his view. What we are dealing with now is destroying people’s lives. Human beings Were not designed to live like this and it will have devastating effects. Once again the answer is simple. Isolated the old and vulnerable and let the rest of us get on with it.

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          That approach, currently bring tried in Sweden, doesn’t work. While the elderly are more vulnerable, healthy young people will end up sick as well, and 2% is too big a number to ignore. Once the number of dead reach a significant number the shutdown will happen, and if you’re going to shutdown anyway, best to do it hard right at the start.

          The model to look at is New Zealand, which will be the first Western country to be completely free of coronavirus.

    • Remember Burry is aspergic and doesn’t understand human / social things too well. Good with numbers though!

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      He is a medical doctor that hasn’t practiced medicine in 20 years. Has no access to government figures and modelling and as stated above, has a dog in the hunt.

  10. migtronixMEMBER

    Just FYI to all you mofos trying to bait me on the PedoPell – no one on this page BTW – you should see my history on this blog on this very subject and realise I’ve been very restrained…

    You decrepit Pellophiles!

    I’ll see you in Hades

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        The people of Bllarat know what went down.
        When the Vic police went to Rome to interview Pell, a number (12-16) locals who had been assaulted by Pell and his felllow priests, left Ballarat to travel to Italy to witness the Vic police interviewing Pell.
        They were seen off by thousands of ballarat citizens who lined the streets and cheered them on.

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          There was a go fund me to get them there. I think I donated. One of the genuine use cases for the site tbh.

    • Good excuse if anyone gets called up for jury duty. “Your honour, a jury of my peers was recently labelled unreasonable by the High Court after making a considered decision. This is not a situation that I will put myself in. If I am empanneled my verdict will be: I don’t know.”

        • Agree. Those Victorian Court of Appeal judges need to get back to basics. They had a shocker. Well two did.

  11. migtronixMEMBER

    Just got sent a stat dec from hq in sf that has to be signed and filed before attending client site. Lol! Luckily I’m a dev not someone chasing billable hours….

  12. So , Austria and Denmark now rolling back their lockdowns

    Maybe learned something from their Swedish neighbours

    I’m sure Australia will be doing the same shortly after Easter, as I predicted

    • migtronixMEMBER

      FFS mate Austria isn’t a neighbour of either any more than you in Sydney are to me Coming 😂

    • While Sweden, with the highest death rate amongst the Nordic countries, is preparing to increase their lockdown.

    • definitely won’t be as long as many expect but won’t bet on an actual time frame. Shame, permanent working home has been the best thing ever with no travel time.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        The people that set policy and in government expect level of shutdown until Nov. and the bin chicken only today said it extends until we get a vaccine.

        Putting money on that narcissistic psychopath Coming’s “prediction” is a long long shot.

        • I’ve ejected him from my herd. Just don’t bother. He could be right or wrong. I don’t care.There’s far more interesting conversations elsewhere.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The number of infection isn’t as important as shutting down the unknown community infection, since it only took ONE Italian super-spreader to start the epidemic in Italy. The virus, not our prediction and model, will decide whether we remain in shutdown.

    • Little bit of a primary school level exercise for you. Read this story:
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-07/coronavirus-sweden-adopting-more-flexible-approach/12118422
      After reading please state the statistics relating to population, infections and deaths in Sweden. Please comapre them to the same from Australia (hint we aren’t looking for opinions and attitudes, although that old chunt in the navy uniform is asking for a corona death with that hubris).

  13. Ronin8317MEMBER

    A recent study saying that closing school have very little effect on COVID-19 transmission, published yesterday.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

    I expect it will be used by a lot of people to justify ScoMo’s stance on not closing school. The problem is : the ‘research’ can only come up with a pittance of articles which fits their research criteria, There is almost no data regarding the effect of school closure by itself, because it’s always been done along with other social distancing measures. For instance, Singapore has recently closed down its school, and they’re closing down everything else as well along with it. The lack of evidence means the effect of school closure is currently unknown, so I have no idea how they can make the conclusion that closing school only prevents 2-4% of death.

  14. migtronixMEMBER

    I wish Coming a silent
    Exodus
    Not from this blog
    Just assisted breathing.

    All the beast..

  15. migtronixMEMBER

    To squirrel, and the kiwi and all the other degenerate Catholics. Beware! You are the new witches and I’ll burn you at the stake!!

  16. migtronixMEMBER

    Death is the ignominy
    That generations have sought
    To free and relieve.
    I’ll krill you all if have to
    Believe that

  17. Well, sounds like euphoria out there. Dow futures up 800 points. US ten year yield shooting up. On what?

    Need a little blowoff top to set up the next leg down, I guess. Every talking monkey is saying buy now / FOMO / the only way is up…

  18. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Australia have 119 new COVID-19 cases today, bringing the total to 5918, a 2.0% increase. It is a slight increase from yesterday, but statistically it is insignificant. In Tasmanis, 8 of the 9 new cases linked to North West Hospital, which is worrying. If we can get it below 100 it will be an important psychological milestone. We are now back at the same number of cases as around the 18th March, which now seems like a long time ago.

    ScoMo have come up with a model where a business can reduce their rent based on their reduced turnover, capped at 50%, or the rent can be deferred until lockdown ends and paid back over 12 months. No idea if that’ll apply to other outgoings as well. : like all policy thought up by ScoMo, it is very light on details. During this period the landlord is not allowed to evict or call in personal guarantees, but the question remains : what if the landlord evict anyway? Still no details on what the residential rental eviction memorandum will look like, however the Tasmanian model seems to be dead.

    Boris Johnson is in ICU and requires oxygen : only one step away from ventilator and the 30% survival rate. If he doesn’t survive the battler to be the next British PM will become very, very messy.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Funnily enough my missus said yesterday what if the queen takes control.

      I pooh pooh’d the suggestion.

      But Charles has had it and recovered…….

      • You know where the Queen’s gonna go after she abdicates?

        Down to King’s Cross, with all the other old queens.

  19. migtronixMEMBER

    Great bouquet, earthy tones, acrid palette with overtones of f#ck everyone very much.

  20. Husband just said how it is quite “bright” outside right now. For midnight. Solar minimum stuff?