The strong moves in the Nikkei seem quite logical to us, given USD/JPY has once again rallied just shy of the 100.00 level. However, what seems less logical was the early spike higher in FTSE futures (currently up 0.9%) on what seems like limited news flow. There has been some news towards an extension to
The new edition of Barron’s has the blogosphere aflutter over the magazine cover indicator…
Goldman Sachs reckons you should buy BHP. Here’s why: Diversification – BHP has exposure to a combination of early and late cycle commodities and are extremely well positioned to weather the volatility. High quality asset base which provides it with long-term growth options Oil Division – We continue to believe that BHP’s key differentiator is
Today has turned into a rout for iron ore miners: Was it my earlier post on iron ore bear markets? Maybe my iron ore glut story at the Intelligent Investor two days ago? Who knows. There are other causes. The sell-off coincided with Andy Xie trashing commodities at the AFR. And iron ore swaps are
The ASX has rallied off its lows along with regional bourses this afternoon and despite materials continuing to struggle with rebar futures still falling sharply in China: The leading sectors are either defensive or interest rate sensitive: US futures are up solidly as well, no doubt as the Boston shock dissipates. It’s the bad news
Another day, another high in the US markets. While the S&P 500 now has the 1600 level in its sight, the NASDAQ still needs to break its 2012 high of 2878. The global equity rout continues, and while the focus has been on liquidity, the attention now shifts to corporate America and the Q1 earnings
It seems US equity markets have hit somewhat of a sweet spot and no doubt the new all-time highs seen in the S&P 500 will attract new retail money into the market. There’s nothing like being under-invested and seeing the word ‘new highs’ on the front page of each newspaper. Usually the contrarians would say
The main game in town has been the JPY, and of course USD/JPY has been at the centre of that, however today it’s all about AUD/USD and the break of the double-top at 1.05. Whether it can close above here will possibly be down to the FOMC minutes and more narrative from Fed members Richard
The AFR is reporting this morning that Gerard Minack is leaving Morgan Stanley to start his own newsletter. Going it alone should not be an issue for Minack, as his parting shot attests: He bemoans the rise and rise of how short-sighted financial markets have become and gives an insight into what he calls the
The hunt for yield is in full force, but this time it’s a question of where Japan is going to invest. The BoJ’s actions seem to have gone so far above and beyond expectations that corporate Japan is looking at risk assets in a whole new light. Yesterday’s ¥1.2 trillion JGB (Japanese government bond) auction
You’ll find any number of articles in the press today about the terrific value of mining stocks. The source of this majority act of contrarianism (yes, that’s an oxymoron) seems to be a Goldman Sachs report that yesterday did a nice job of outlining the discounts in the mining and metals segment of the ASX.
After last week’s drama, things should settle down a bit now, with the calendar looking a lot less frantic. That being said, US Q1 earnings season kicks off this week, and while Alcoa starts things off officially today, JP Morgan and Citigroup will certainly demand greater attention later in the week. The weak headline print
Despite most forex and Japanese equity players being transfixed on perhaps one of the most eagerly-awaited central bank meetings for some time, there are still some very interesting thematics which are gripping other parts of capital markets. Perhaps for us, the other two key talking points are the ever-changing repricing of Fed expectations from the
There’s been an underlying negative tone in Asia today, despite a positive US and European lead, and strength in Japanese equities. We put this down to Fed chatter more than anything else, although the 5.3% drop on the month for HIA Australian home sales certainly didn’t help the Australian banks in any shape or form.
As you can see the ASX is selling off today despite the very bullish tone set overnight and Asian markets following through. Materials are leading the falls for no apparent reason (beyond the deteriorating context of Chinese tightening). But rebar futures are trading up: Perhaps it was me publishing the steel PMI? 😉 Banks are
As the S&P500 breaks through to an all time high today, Nouriel Roubini is out with a dire ruminations about the global economy. Much of it is sensible enough: Eurozone tail risks; Chinese imbalances and Japanese desperation. For Roubini the one beacon of hope is the US, where risks remain but on the whole: The
It’s hard to remember a week where traders in all parts of capital markets will need to think tactically, but trade nimbly. Keep your friends close, and your stops closer as they say. Whether one looks in the commodity space, with copper at a seven-month low; or corn’s 12% fall in the last few days
By Chris Becker As I wait for the RBA decision later today, I came across a simple but powerful chart tweeted earlier from David Scutt, Treasury Dealer at Arab Bank. Using Thomson-Reuters data and David’s own calculations, it clearly shows that our local stock market, the ASX200 (Code:XJO) if calculated in USD terms (red), would now
US markets finished a whisker away from the all-time closing high of 1565 courtesy of some dovish rhetoric from Fed Presidents Charles Evans (voting member), Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota (a voting member next year) and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (a current voter). With the Boston President urging the Fed to keep the pace of purchases going right
US markets continue to push higher and today could be the day the S&P 500 prints a new closing high, which given it’s a mere point away, is very much a rounding issue. The fact that the Cypriot dramas have been widely overlooked for domestic data shows US investors are in a positive place, and
We suggested on Friday that EUR/USD may initially spike on a Cypriot agreement, but this reversed course as traders looked at the finer details of the potential bailout. This has worked well with the EUR getting sold heavily across the G10 complex, although EUR/JPY experienced the most aggressive move. Cyprus is a small country and
By Chris Becker Here’s my roundup of what happened in major macro markets in the last week and what could happen in the weeks ahead as the world’s central bankers continue to apply the “milkie wilkies” of easing, liquidity, and low/zero interest rates. Remember, the following views are my own, do not constitute advice and are
If Cyprus is going to snowball into a sizeable issue, given the potential weekend antics, then Australian investors certainly haven’t shown too much concern, piling into the banks’ 5% yield. The rest of Asia seems to have struggled though, with the Nikkei the under-performer. You can pick one of five positive factors – a strong
The always interesting Gerard Minack of Morgan Stanley has new note out this morning which underlines the challenge facing equities going forward. Equities are being driven by a return to normal. This is not a case of upgrading the base case, this is about reducing tail risk. And this is not a case of following
Cross-posted from Tiho at The Short Side of Long . Last time I updated the ever popular Merrill Lynch Fund Managers Survey was in late January. A common occurrence was the high levels of risk taking, a non-desire for market protection, high expectations of growth in China and finally a trend of overexposure towards equities.
Asia has shown once again that it is not just a reactionary time zone, and can throw up a few surprises of its own. While the political issues in Cyprus roll on, albeit slightly more constructively, it is down to Australia this time to steal the limelight from a political standpoint. Today was one of
With Japan offline for the Vernal Equinox day, it was down to the ASX 200, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite to bring the focus back into the equity space. Cyprus remains the main macro concern, and the twists and turns in this saga continue to subtract sentiment from the EUR, and feed safe-haven asset appreciation.
It seems calmer heads have prevailed in Europe and the US and the fact S&P futures were down 1.5% at the close of the Australian market yesterday saw a descent snap-back in early trade, although the index has found sellers today, despite a rampant Nikkei. The Cypriot bank levy continues to take centre stage, and
It’s been a good old fashioned risk-off day in Asia, with the EUR predictably at the epicentre of the sell-off. The Cypriot stability levy has been at the heart of the concern. While depositors from other sovereigns with fiscal issue such as Portugal, Spain and Greece will be looking at the levy with great interest,
Asian markets have charged higher today, erasing the losses we saw around the region yesterday. While the ASX 200 is outperforming with a 1.1% gain, attention has been pinned on Japan where the BoJ nominees were confirmed by the upper house. The Nikkei is 0.8% firmer while the Hang Seng is up 0.2% and the
